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Media Election Projections
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Book Synopsis Election Polls, the News Media, and Democracy by : Paul J. Lavrakas
Download or read book Election Polls, the News Media, and Democracy written by Paul J. Lavrakas and published by Qc Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an introduction to modern polling. Focusing primarily on the 1996 US presidential election campaign, scholars and media pollsters address such topics as political campaigns, elections, voting behaviour and public opinion, as well as the news media's role in elections and democracy.
Book Synopsis Presidential Polls And The News Media by : Paul J Lavrakas
Download or read book Presidential Polls And The News Media written by Paul J Lavrakas and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-26 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most news media are "data rich but analysis poor" when it comes to election polling. Since election polls clearly have the power to influence campaigns and election post-mortems, it is important that "spin" not take precedence over significance in the reporting of poll results. In this volume, experts in the media and in academe challenge the conventional approaches that most news media take in their poll-based campaign coverage. The book reports new research findings on news coverage of recent presidential elections and provides a myriad of examples of how journalists and news media executives can improve their analysis of poll data, thereby better serving our political processes.
Author :PAUL J. TRAUGOTT LAVRAKAS (MICHAEL. MILLER, PETER V.) Publisher :Routledge ISBN 13 :9780367284220 Total Pages :296 pages Book Rating :4.2/5 (842 download)
Book Synopsis Presidential Polls and the News Media by : PAUL J. TRAUGOTT LAVRAKAS (MICHAEL. MILLER, PETER V.)
Download or read book Presidential Polls and the News Media written by PAUL J. TRAUGOTT LAVRAKAS (MICHAEL. MILLER, PETER V.) and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-30 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most news media are "data rich but analysis poor" when it comes to election polling. Since election polls clearly have the power to influence campaigns and election post-mortems, it is important that "spin" not take precedence over significance in the reporting of poll results. In this volume, experts in the media and in academe challenge the conventional approaches that most news media take in their poll-based campaign coverage. The book reports new research findings on news coverage of recent presidential elections and provides a myriad of examples of how journalists and news media executives can improve their analysis of poll data, thereby better serving our political processes.
Author :United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :80 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (7 download)
Book Synopsis Media Election Projections by : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation
Download or read book Media Election Projections written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Trump and the Media by : Pablo J. Boczkowski
Download or read book Trump and the Media written by Pablo J. Boczkowski and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2018-03-23 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The election of Donald Trump and the great disruption in the news and social media. Donald Trump's election as the 45th President of the United States came as something of a surprise—to many analysts, journalists, and voters. The New York Times's The Upshot gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the White House even as the returns began to come in. What happened? And what role did the news and social media play in the election? In Trump and the Media, journalism and technology experts grapple with these questions in a series of short, thought-provoking essays. Considering the disruption of the media landscape, the disconnect between many voters and the established news outlets, the emergence of fake news and “alternative facts,” and Trump's own use of social media, these essays provide a window onto broader transformations in the relationship between information and politics in the twenty-first century. The contributors find historical roots to current events in Cold War notions of "us" versus "them," trace the genealogy of the assault on facts, and chart the collapse of traditional news gatekeepers. They consider such topics as Trump's tweets (diagnosed by one writer as “Twitterosis”) and the constant media exposure given to Trump during the campaign. They propose photojournalists as visual fact checkers (“lessons of the paparazzi”) and debate whether Trump's administration is authoritarian or just authoritarian-like. Finally, they consider future strategies for the news and social media to improve the quality of democratic life. Contributors Mike Ananny, Chris W. Anderson, Rodney Benson, Pablo J. Boczkowski, danah boyd, Robyn Caplan, Michael X. Delli Carpini, Josh Cowls, Susan J. Douglas, Keith N. Hampton, Dave Karpf, Daniel Kreiss, Seth C. Lewis, Zoey Lichtenheld, Andrew L. Mendelson, Gina Neff, Zizi Papacharissi, Katy E. Pearce, Victor Pickard, Sue Robinson, Adrienne Russell, Ralph Schroeder, Michael Schudson, Julia Sonnevend, Keren Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Tina Tucker, Fred Turner, Nikki Usher, Karin Wahl-Jorgensen, Silvio Waisbord, Barbie Zelizer
Book Synopsis Predicting the Next President by : Allan J. Lichtman
Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-07-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
Book Synopsis Election Night News and Voter Turnout by : William C. Adams
Download or read book Election Night News and Voter Turnout written by William C. Adams and published by Lynne Rienner Pub. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ?The best treatment of the issue of election-night projections yet to appear. Adams draws reasonable and balanced conclusions, and makes sensible recommendations for policy changes that could minimize an important controversy in our political system.??Scott Keeter, Pew Research Center for the People and the Press?Adams brings to bear a wide-ranging set of data to conclusively analyze the impact of election-night projections on voter turnout.??Michael Traugott, University of MichiganIn eight of the past dozen presidential elections, TV networks proclaimed the winner while citizens on the West Coast, Hawaii, and Alaska were still casting ballots. Is this a problem? Do media projections decrease voter turnout? Carefully examining data from every presidential election held from 1960 through 2004, William Adams definitively answers both questions. Adams employs a range of methods (including content analysis, focus groups, survey research, meta-analysis, and time-series analysis) to corroborate his finding that projections do not in fact discourage voter turnout?but do raise serious issues of equity and perceived discrimination. His persuasive analysis suggests clear policy options designed to keep voters from feeling discounted and devalued on election day. William Adams is professor of public policy and public administration at George Washington University.Contents: The Controversy?s Context, 1960-2004. Reassessing Conflicting Findings. Election-Night Newscasts. Polling Portland?s Nonvoters: Western Oregon. Turnout Test of Twin Counties: Eastern Oregon. Heartland Not Disheartened: Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota. Decades of Dinner-Time Dropoff: California. Deploring But Ignoring Projections: Washington, Oregon, California. Sorting through 2000 Snafus: Florida. Equity, Fairness, and Policy Options.
Book Synopsis Opinion Polls and the Media by : C. Holtz-Bacha
Download or read book Opinion Polls and the Media written by C. Holtz-Bacha and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-04-05 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Opinion Polls and the Media provides the most comprehensive analysis to date on the relationship between the media, opinion polls, and public opinion. Looking at the extent to which the media, through their use of opinion polls, both reflect and shape public opinion, it brings together a team of leading scholars and analyzes theoretical and methodological approaches to the media and their use of opinion polls. The contributors explore how the media use opinion polls in a range of countries across the world, and analyze the effects and uses of opinion polls by the public as well as political actors.
Book Synopsis Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t by : Sharon E. Jarvis
Download or read book Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t written by Sharon E. Jarvis and published by Penn State Press. This book was released on 2019-06-27 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For decades, journalists have called the winners of U.S. presidential elections—often in error—well before the closing of the polls. In Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t, Sharon E. Jarvis and Soo-Hye Han investigate what motivates journalists to call elections before the votes have been tallied and, more importantly, what this and similar practices signal to the electorate about the value of voter participation. Jarvis and Han track how journalists have told the story of electoral participation during the last eighteen presidential elections, revealing how the portrayal of voters in the popular press has evolved over the last half century from that of mobilized partisan actors vital to electoral outcomes to that of pawns of political elites and captives of a flawed electoral system. The authors engage with experiments and focus groups to reveal the effects that these portrayals have on voters and share their findings in interviews with prominent journalists. Votes That Count and Voters Who Don’t not only explores the failings of the media but also shows how the story of electoral participation might be told in ways that support both democratic and journalistic values. At a time when professional strategists are pressuring journalists to provide favorable coverage for their causes and candidates, this book invites academics, organizations, the press, and citizens alike to advocate for the voter’s place in the news.
Book Synopsis Lost in a Gallup by : W. Joseph Campbell
Download or read book Lost in a Gallup written by W. Joseph Campbell and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2024-02-20 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Download or read book American Nations written by Colin Woodard and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-09-25 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: • A New Republic Best Book of the Year • The Globalist Top Books of the Year • Winner of the Maine Literary Award for Non-fiction Particularly relevant in understanding who voted for who during presidential elections, this is an endlessly fascinating look at American regionalism and the eleven “nations” that continue to shape North America According to award-winning journalist and historian Colin Woodard, North America is made up of eleven distinct nations, each with its own unique historical roots. In American Nations he takes readers on a journey through the history of our fractured continent, offering a revolutionary and revelatory take on American identity, and how the conflicts between them have shaped our past and continue to mold our future. From the Deep South to the Far West, to Yankeedom to El Norte, Woodard (author of American Character: A History of the Epic Struggle Between Individual Liberty and the Common Good) reveals how each region continues to uphold its distinguishing ideals and identities today, with results that can be seen in the composition of the U.S. Congress or on the county-by-county election maps of any hotly contested election in our history.
Book Synopsis The Timeline of Presidential Elections by : Robert S. Erikson
Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :030947647X Total Pages :181 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Securing the Vote by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Securing the Vote written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.
Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things by : Ray C. Fair
Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things written by Ray C. Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What do the following events have in common? In 2000, the election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was a virtual tie. The 1989 and 1990 vintages have turned out to be two of the best ever for Bordeaux wines. In 2001, the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate eleven times. The decade of the 1970s was one of the worst on record for U.S. inflation. In 2001, the author of this book, at age 59, ran a marathon in 3 hours and 30 minutes, but should have been able to do it in 3 hours and 15 minutes. This book shows clearly and simply how these diverse events can be explained by using the tools of the social sciences and statistics. It moves from a discussion of formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. Through the use of a rich array of examples, the book demonstrates the power and range of social science and statistical methods. In addition to “big” topics—presidential elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation—and “not quite so big” topics—wine quality—the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest. Who of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? (In other words, how fast are you slowing down?) As the author works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, demonstrating the usefulness of statistical theory and method, he gives the reader a new way of thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life.
Download or read book Rigged written by Mollie Hemingway and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2021-10-12 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: FROM THE AUTHOR OF THE #1 NATIONAL BESTSELLER JUSTICE ON TRIAL Stunned by the turbulence of the 2020 election, millions of Americans are asking the forbidden question: what really happened? It was a devastating triple punch. Capping their four-year campaign to destroy the Trump presidency, the media portrayed a Democratic victory as necessary and inevitable. Big Tech, wielding unprecedented powers, vaporized dissent and erased damning reports about the Biden family's corruption. And Democratic operatives, exploiting a public health crisis, shamelessly manipulated the voting process itself. Silenced and subjected, the American people lost their faith in the system. RIGGED is the definitive account of the 2020 election. Based on Mollie Hemingway's exclusive interviews with campaign officials, reporters, Supreme Court justices, and President Trump himself, it exposes the fraud and cynicism behind the Democrats' historic power-grab. Rewriting history is a specialty of the radical left, now in control of America's political and cultural heights. But they will have to contend with the determination, insight, and eloquence of Mollie Hemingway. RIGGED is a reminder for weary patriots that truth is still the most powerful weapon. The stakes for our democracy have never been higher.
Book Synopsis The Signal and the Noise by : Nate Silver
Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Download or read book Voting Assistance Guide written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
