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Market Uncertainty And Earnings Guidance
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Book Synopsis Market Uncertainty and Earnings Guidance by : Anna Agapova
Download or read book Market Uncertainty and Earnings Guidance written by Anna Agapova and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We test a theory about ambiguity surrounding the distribution of fundamental values to determine how market uncertainty affects earnings guidance perception and behavior. We find a more pronounced negative share price response to negative earnings guidance and a lower likelihood that management issues negative guidance under conditions of greater market uncertainty. Yet, we also find that the share price response to positive guidance is not related to the level of market uncertainty, while the likelihood of issuing positive guidance decreases with market uncertainty. The asymmetric effects of market uncertainty on earnings guidance perception and behavior support the ambiguity based pricing theories.
Book Synopsis Earnings Guidance and Market Uncertainty by : Jonathan L. Rogers
Download or read book Earnings Guidance and Market Uncertainty written by Jonathan L. Rogers and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effect of disclosure on uncertainty by examining how management earnings forecasts affect stock market volatility. Using implied volatilities from exchange-traded options prices, we find that management earnings forecasts, on average, increase short-term volatility. This effect is attributable to forecasts that convey bad news, especially when firms release forecasts sporadically (as opposed to on a routine basis). In the longer run, market uncertainty declines after earnings are announced regardless of whether there is a preceding earnings forecast. This decline is mitigated when the firm issues a forecast that conveys negative news.
Book Synopsis Management Earnings Forecasts by : Hwa Deuk Yi
Download or read book Management Earnings Forecasts written by Hwa Deuk Yi and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Investment by : Stephen Bond
Download or read book Uncertainty and Investment written by Stephen Bond and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Evolution of Market Uncertainty Around Earnings Annoucements by : Dušan Isakov
Download or read book Evolution of Market Uncertainty Around Earnings Annoucements written by Dušan Isakov and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Era of Uncertainty by : Francois Trahan
Download or read book The Era of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2011-08-09 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.” From the foreword by Robert Doll, Vice Chairman & CIO of Global Equities, Blackrock Advisors, LLC “François Trahan is an insightful observer and student of market forces. His research has identified key drivers of stock market performance over decades in various cycles of inflation, credit growth, and economic developments. In his new book, François tries to sort out and explain for market participants the dynamics that brought us to this point and what he sees as the future path of economic and market developments. It is an essential read for anyone participating in or interested in the stock market.” Robert Soros, Chairman, Soros Fund Management “The Era of Uncertainty is terrific. It challenges conventional Wall Street wisdom, gives investors the necessary tools to successfully navigate the new world order and has policy prescriptions to get the U.S. economy on the right track.” Consuelo Mack, Anchor & Managing Editor, Consuelo Mack WealthTrack “Valuation is not everything. An important lesson from the global financial crisis is that macro matters. In The Era of Uncertainty, François Trahan and Katharine Krantz show how macroeconomic analysis can be incorporated into the investment process and provide a road map for investing in the difficult times ahead.” Edward Chancellor, Author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation and member of GMO's Asset Allocation team “François consistently sets a high bar for strategist and thought leaders in the markets, and I can safely say he’s done it yet again with this book. Always insightful, and willing to challenge the ‘stale’ thinking of the establishment on The Street, François' thoughts and analysis are appropriate for anyone who cares not only about markets, but the future of our world.” Jeff deGraaf, Chairman, Renaissance Macro Research, LLC With macro forces governing the post-credit crisis world, and most likely to remain dominant for some time to come, the power of the business cycle is once again in the spotlight. In this type of environment, stock picking will have far less impact on portfolio returns than getting the "big picture" right. And using the last twenty years as a playbook will prove costly to investors. The Era of Uncertainty provides a new way of thinking about investing in a dynamic, macro-driven world. In it, François Trahan and Katherine Krantz discuss the importance of macroeconomic perspectives in an unstable global economy. They go on to cover three possible future scenarios: inflation, deflation, or the middle ground. With each scenario the authors discusses the likely causes and consequences as well as the best strategies for investing profitably. Draws on the experiences of prior credit-driven deleveraging cycles to develop a dynamic framework for investing in an era of economic uncertainty Contains insights on the future of the financial industry Provides fascinating anecdotes from Trahan's time at Bear Stearns prior to its collapse and sale Includes interactive digital tool for users to determine investment strategies based on personal predictions If you intend on succeeding in today's economic environment you can't follow yesterday's investment strategies. The Era of Uncertainty reveals what it will take to make it in such a different market and how you can incorporate new strategies into your everyday investment endeavors. The book comes with an interactive digital tool allowing users to make their own predictions about the economic future and receive asset allocation and sector allocation advice.
Book Synopsis Market Uncertainty and Disclosure of Internal Control Deficiencies Under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act by : Yongtae Kim
Download or read book Market Uncertainty and Disclosure of Internal Control Deficiencies Under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act written by Yongtae Kim and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines cross-sectional differences in stock market reactions to the disclosure of internal control deficiencies under Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. We hypothesize that the market punishment for internal control problems will be less severe for internal control disclosure that helps reduce market uncertainty around the disclosure. We also predict that such a relation is dependent on the types of disclosure and the market's prior knowledge of the credibility of firms' financial reporting. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that when firms disclose their internal control deficiencies, their abnormal stock returns are negatively associated with changes in market uncertainty (e.g., changes in the standard deviations of daily stock returns) around the disclosure. We also find that the impact of the uncertainty reduction is greater for voluntary disclosures of non-material weakness, especially those made in the context of previous suspicious events. The negative impact of changes in market uncertainty on the abnormal stock returns remains intact even after controlling for possible simultaneity. An analysis using financial analysts' earnings forecasts dispersion as an alternative proxy for uncertainty confirms the results.
Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight
Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Book Synopsis Does Management Guidance Help Resolve Uncertainty Around Macroeconomic Announcements? by : Jin Kyung Choi
Download or read book Does Management Guidance Help Resolve Uncertainty Around Macroeconomic Announcements? written by Jin Kyung Choi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine whether management guidance contains complementary information that helps resolve investor uncertainty around macroeconomic announcements. We find that when firms issue a management earnings forecast in the month prior to a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement of the Federal funds rate target, they experience a significantly larger decrease in implied volatility around the announcement. This effect is more pronounced for firms that are more financially constrained and for firms that have greater investment opportunities, consistent with guidance having greater information complementarities when firm investment is more sensitive to interest rate news. We further find that the guidance effect is stronger for firms that issue capital expenditure forecasts along with earnings forecasts, for firms with more accurate forecasts, and for firms that issue guidance closer to the FOMC announcement. These results suggest that management guidance conveys useful firm-specific information that complements macroeconomic information in resolving investor uncertainty, highlighting an unintended benefit of management guidance.
Book Synopsis Winning Investors Over by : Baruch Lev
Download or read book Winning Investors Over written by Baruch Lev and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to dealing with Wall Street in order to boost a company's earnings and stock price features advice for executives on such topics as addressing investors' concerns and maintaining credibility on Wall Street.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Overreaction to Management Earnings Forecasts by : Jean-Sebastien Michel
Download or read book Stock Market Overreaction to Management Earnings Forecasts written by Jean-Sebastien Michel and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I hypothesize that the stock market overreacts to management earnings forecasts because of the uncertainty surrounding them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a -5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1.9% correction in the 2-month period after earnings are announced. Positive surprises work in the opposite direction, with a 1.9% abnormal return and a -1.7% correction. The level of the stock market overreaction varies with the forecast and firm characteristics, but the marginal impact remains the same: a 1% change in the stock market reaction around the forecast is associated with a 0.4% correction.
Book Synopsis The Relation between Investor Uncertainty and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements by : Theodore E. Christensen
Download or read book The Relation between Investor Uncertainty and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements written by Theodore E. Christensen and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the association between pre-disclosure uncertainty and investor reliance on reported earnings. Our study is unique because it incorporates both context-specific and forecast-based measures of uncertainty. The analysis is based on data for 118 publicly-traded property and casualty insurers for the period 1989 through 1998. We find significantly positive correlations among loss exposure, our context-based measure of uncertainty, and more general measures of uncertainty based on analysts' forecasts. Further, each uncertainty measure considered individually is significantly associated with the magnitude of abnormal returns around subsequent earnings announcements. However, the relation between loss exposure and abnormal returns is nonlinear. Although the market response to earnings generally increases with the firm's exposure to losses in the prior period, that effect is attenuated when the loss is very large. Simultaneous consideration of contextual and forecast-based measures of uncertainty indicates that, once forecast-based measures are taken into account, our contextual measure of uncertainty provides little incremental explanatory power for abnormal returns. The fact that generalized uncertainty measures based on analysts' forecasts apparently outperform a context-specific variable is good news for empirical researchers confronted with samples drawn from diverse industry settings. Taken together, our results provide compelling support for the view that investor reliance on reported earnings increases in periods of heightened uncertainty about the firm's prospects.
Book Synopsis Evolution of Market Uncertainty Around Earnings Announcements by : Dušan Isakov
Download or read book Evolution of Market Uncertainty Around Earnings Announcements written by Dušan Isakov and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Beyond Accounting and Back by : Philipp D. Schaberl
Download or read book Beyond Accounting and Back written by Philipp D. Schaberl and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ohlson (1995) models firm value as a function of book value, earnings, and analysts' earnings forecasts which capture “other” information not yet reflected in the financial statements. Within this framework, stock returns reflect information from earnings and forecasts, each of which is different in terms of reliability and timeliness. For the period 1984-2012, this paper examines time trends and the influence of aggregate market conditions on the relative relevance of earnings and forecasts. In this context, relative relevance is defined as the incremental explanatory power of earnings or forecasts, relative to their combined explanatory power with respect to the cross-section of stock returns. This inquiry is motivated by anecdotal evidence and recent research, which suggests that aggregate market conditions influence the usefulness of accounting information for investors. The findings show that while the relative relevance of earnings has remained stable, the relative relevance of forecasts has increased over time. I also find that the relative relevance of earnings is higher in bad years, i.e. years with low market returns or elevated market uncertainty. Overall, the results reported in this study suggest that despite the increase in the relevance of timely “other” information, investors tend to rely more on reliable accounting information during bad years.
Book Synopsis Does Earnings Guidance Affect Market Returns? The Nature and Information Content of Aggregate Earnings Guidance by : Carol Anilowski Cain
Download or read book Does Earnings Guidance Affect Market Returns? The Nature and Information Content of Aggregate Earnings Guidance written by Carol Anilowski Cain and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate whether earnings guidance affects aggregate stock returns through its effects on expectations about overall earnings performance and/or aggregate expected returns. We find that aggregate guidance, especially relative levels of quarterly downward guidance, is associated with analyst- and time-series-based measures of aggregate earnings news. We find more modest evidence that guidance, again, largely downward guidance, is associated with market returns - market returns appear to respond to guidance toward the end of each calendar quarter, when most earnings preannouncements are released, and there is some evidence that firm-level guidance affects market returns in short windows around its release.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers by : National Research Council
Download or read book Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-07-31 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Book Synopsis Earnings Management by : Joshua Ronen
Download or read book Earnings Management written by Joshua Ronen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-06 with total page 587 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a study of earnings management, aimed at scholars and professionals in accounting, finance, economics, and law. The authors address research questions including: Why are earnings so important that firms feel compelled to manipulate them? What set of circumstances will induce earnings management? How will the interaction among management, boards of directors, investors, employees, suppliers, customers and regulators affect earnings management? How to design empirical research addressing earnings management? What are the limitations and strengths of current empirical models?
