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Macroeconomics In Interest Rate Term Structure Modelling
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Book Synopsis Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Rajna Gibson
Download or read book Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Rajna Gibson and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics in Interest Rate Term Structure Modelling by : Panu Immonen
Download or read book Macroeconomics in Interest Rate Term Structure Modelling written by Panu Immonen and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2012 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest rates, the most important indicator of finance. How one should get started with the analysis of interest rates term structure? It is a complicated task which has to start from the basics. The vast literature and study made by professionals has been summarized in this thesis. The point being clarity and low amount of background information needed from the subject. In other words by reading this thesis one has a clear general view of the subject and its latest developments, also some new insights for future study has been covered. For anyone who is keen to know more about the fascinating world of term structure of interest rate from the point of view of a macroeconomist.
Book Synopsis On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with pre-crisis data. This paper uses a software developed by Fund staff for this purpose. This software makes it possible to estimate the term structure using at least nine models, while opening up the possibility of generating simulated paths of the term structure.
Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period by : Mr.Jun Nagayasu
Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy During a Zero-Interest-Rate Period written by Mr.Jun Nagayasu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-10-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. Applying a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for economic analysis only when interest rates are high. When interest rates are low, the usefulness of the model declines, since the interest spread contains little information that can be used for predicting future economic activity. The term-structure relationship is also weakened by the Bank of Japan's use of interest rate smoothing.
Book Synopsis Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Mirko Abbritti
Download or read book Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Mirko Abbritti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.
Book Synopsis Interest Rate Modelling by : S. Svoboda
Download or read book Interest Rate Modelling written by S. Svoboda and published by Springer. This book was released on 2003-12-18 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in the derivatives market has brought with it a greater volume and range of interest rate dependent products. These products have become increasingly innovative and complex to price, requiring sophisticated market models that capture the full dynamics of the yield curve. A study of the evolution of interest rate modelling theory places these models in the correct mathematical context, allowing appreciation of their key assumptions, concepts and implications. The book guides the practitioner through the derivation and implementation of a variety of models that account for the characteristics and irregularities of observed term structures.
Book Synopsis Interest Rate Models: an Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Analysis Perspective by : René Carmona
Download or read book Interest Rate Models: an Infinite Dimensional Stochastic Analysis Perspective written by René Carmona and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-22 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the mathematical issues that arise in modeling the interest rate term structure by casting the interest-rate models as stochastic evolution equations in infinite dimensions. The text includes a crash course on interest rates, a self-contained introduction to infinite dimensional stochastic analysis, and recent results in interest rate theory. From the reviews: "A wonderful book. The authors present some cutting-edge math." --WWW.RISKBOOK.COM
Book Synopsis A Macroeconomic Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Martin D. D. Evans
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Does Macroeconomics Help Us to Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates? by : Carlo A. Favero
Download or read book Does Macroeconomics Help Us to Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates? written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Models and the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Steven Strongin
Download or read book Macroeconomic Models and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Steven Strongin and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Topics in Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Marcel A. Priebsch
Download or read book Topics in Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Marcel A. Priebsch and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies topics of current interest in modeling the term structure of interest rates. Chapter 1 develops and estimates a canonical arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model that incorporates macroeconomic variables. The model allows macroeconomic variables to contain information about future yields that is not reflected in the current cross section of yields ("unspanned" macro variables). Moreover, it accommodates rich feedback between macroeconomic and yield variables. Chapters 2 and 3 analyze the behavior of yields in low-interest environments. Standard Gaussian term structure models do not impose a lower bound on yields. As shown in Chapter 2, this can lead to estimation bias when a lower bound is present in the data. Chapter 3 develops a new technique for fast and accurate approximation of arbitrage-free bond yields in a class of "shadow rate" models that formally impose a lower bound on observed yields. Chapter 4 ties together the previous three chapters. It sets up and estimates a shadow rate term structure model with unspanned macro variables, and uses the model to analyze interest rate expectations before, during, and in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling by : Jagjit S. Chadha
Download or read book Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling written by Jagjit S. Chadha and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-02-06 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.
Book Synopsis Estimating Parameters of Short-Term Real Interest Rate Models by : Mr.Vadim Khramov
Download or read book Estimating Parameters of Short-Term Real Interest Rate Models written by Mr.Vadim Khramov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-17 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sheds light on a narrow but crucial question in finance: What should be the parameters of a model of the short-term real interest rate? Although models for the nominal interest rate are well studied and estimated, dynamics of the real interest rate are rarely explored. Simple ad hoc processes for the short-term real interest rate are usually assumed as building blocks for more sophisticated models. In this paper, parameters of the real interest rate model are estimated in the broad class of single-factor interest rate diffusion processes on U.S. monthly data. It is shown that the elasticity of interest rate volatility—the relationship between the volatility of changes in the interest rate and its level—plays a crucial role in explaining real interest rate dynamics. The empirical estimates of the elasticity of the real interest rate volatility are found to be about 0.5, much lower than that of the nominal interest rate. These estimates show that the square root process, as in the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, provides a good characterization of the short-term real interest rate process.
Book Synopsis A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium by : Emanuel Kopp
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
Book Synopsis Estimation of a Joint Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy by : Hans Dewachter
Download or read book Estimation of a Joint Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy written by Hans Dewachter and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we present a stylized continuous time model integrating the macroeconomy and the bond markets. We use this framework to estimate (real) interest rate policy rules using information contained in both macroeconomic variables (i.e. output and inflation) and in the term structure of interest rates. We extend the standard Kalman filter procedure in order to estimate this model efficiently. Application to the U.S. economy shows that this model is able to estimate the macroeconomic dynamics accurately and that the standard feedback rule only in observable factors is not valid within this framework. Moreover, we find that observable macroeconomic variables do not explain much of the term structure. However, (filtered) stochastic central tendencies of these macroeconomic variables do. Finally, both observable and non-observable factors determine the risk premia and hence the excess holding returns of the bonds.
Book Synopsis Modelling the Yield Curve by : Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Download or read book Modelling the Yield Curve written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We test and estimate a variety of alternative models of the yield curve, using weekly, high-quality U.K. data. We extend the Campbell-Shiller technique to the overlapping data case and apply it to reject the pure expectations hypothesis under rational expectations. We also find that risk measures, in the form of conditional interest rate volatility, are unable to explain the term premium. A simple, market segmentation approach is, however, moderately successful in explaining the term premium.
Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Interest Rates by : John Driffill
Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates written by John Driffill and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines data on interest rates in the United Kingdom information on changes in policy regime and their credibility in order to discover the period from 1959-87 using quarterly data. A stochastic regime switching model used by Hamilton, based on an AR(4) model for short rates, and the corresponding model for long rates, does not adequately represent the UK data. Yields on long-term UK government debt behave consistently with the expectations model of the term structure, on a number of basic tests. Their relationship with yields on treasury bills, however, is not consistent with the theory unless an autoregressive risk premium is introduced into the holding period yield on long bonds. The only evidence of a change in the time-series behaviour of long bond yields in these data occurs at the end of 1974. There is no evidence of a policy change in 1979 or 1980. The hypothesis that these interest rates contain unit roots cannot be rejected. Therefore, tests of the expectations model devised by Campbell and Shiller to take account of unit roots in the data were undertaken, but they revealed no evidence of departures from the expectations model.
