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Linkage Between Interest Rate Policy And Macro Economic Variables
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Book Synopsis Linkage Between Interest Rate Policy And Macro Economic Variables by : Fidous Ahmad Malik
Download or read book Linkage Between Interest Rate Policy And Macro Economic Variables written by Fidous Ahmad Malik and published by Booksclinic Publishing. This book was released on 2022-06-15 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an Academic book
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Policy by : Farrokh K. Langdana
Download or read book Macroeconomic Policy written by Farrokh K. Langdana and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an applications-oriented text that demystifies the linkages between monetary and fiscal policies and key macroeconomic variables such as income, unemployment, inflation and interest rates. Specially written "newspaper" articles simulate current macroeconomic news on asset-price bubbles, exchange rates, hyperinflation and more. Exercises and diagrams, and a global perspective – incorporating both developed and emerging economies - make this a broadly useful, real-world oriented text on a complex and shifting subject.
Book Synopsis The Term Structure of Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomy by : Fan Dora Xia
Download or read book The Term Structure of Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomy written by Fan Dora Xia and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies the relationship between the term structure of interest rates, monetary policy, and macroeconomy. The first chapter, A Parsimonious No-Arbitrage Term Structure Model that is Useful for Forecasting, offers a solution to a well-known puzzle in the term structure literature. The puzzle is that while the level, slope and curvature (or the first three principal components of yields) can quite accurately summarize the cross-section of yields at any point in time, different functions of interest rates and other macroeconomic variables appear to be helpful when the goal is to predict future interest rates. My paper proposes a parsimonious representation to capture this feature in a large dataset. In the first step, I run reduced rank regressions of one-year excess returns on a panel of 131 macroeconomic variables and initial forward rates from 1964 to 2007. I find that a single linear combination of macroeconomic variables and forward rates can predict excess returns on two- to five-year maturity bonds with R-squared up to 0.71. The forecasting factor subsumes the tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates constructed by Cochrane and Piazzesi (2003) and explains excess returns better. In the second step, I estimate a restricted Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) with the level, slope and curvature commonly used by most term structure models along with the forecasting factor. Restrictions are derived based on the fact that while cross-sectional information in yields is spanned by the level, slope and curvature, cross-sectional information in expected excess returns is spanned by the forecasting factor. Compared with a conventional GATSM only including the level, slope and curvature, the restricted four-factor GATSM generates plausible countercyclical term premia. The second and third chapter focus on the recent zero lower bound (ZLB) period. In the second chapter, Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound, coauthored with Cynthia Wu, we employ an approximation that makes a nonlinear shadow rate term structure model (SRTSM) extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that such a model offers a better description of the data compared to the widely used GATSM. Moreover, the model can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy at the ZLB. Using a simple factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), we show that the shadow rate calculated by our model exhibits similar dynamic correlations with macro variables of interest in the period since 2009 as the fed funds rate did in data prior to the Great Recession. This result gives us a tool for measuring the effects of monetary policy under the ZLB, using either historical estimates based on the fed funds rate or less precisely measured estimates inferred solely from the new data for the shadow rate alone. We show that the Fed has used unconventional policy measures to successfully lower the shadow rate. Our estimates imply that the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy since 2009 have succeeded in lowering the unemployment rate by 0.13% relative to where it would have been in the absence of these measure. The third chapter, Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Term Structure of Interest Rates, offers a complete characterization of effects of unconventional monetary policies on interest rates by examining policies' impacts on the whole yield curve. I make use of the SRTSM to summarize all interest rates with factors of lower dimension so that I can capture responses of all interest rates in a parsimonious way. By investigating how policy announcements affect the three factors and then the whole forward curve accordingly, I find that during the ZLB period, forward rate with short maturities are constrained, while forward rates with long maturities still respond to policy announcements. Following each easing (tightening) policy announcement, long forward rates would decrease (increase) by 10 basis points on average.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Policy by : Farrokh Langdana
Download or read book Macroeconomic Policy written by Farrokh Langdana and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-04-15 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an applications-oriented text that demystifies the linkages between monetary and fiscal policies and key macroeconomic variables such as income, unemployment, inflation and interest rates. Specially written "newspaper" articles simulate current macroeconomic news on asset-price bubbles, exchange rates, hyperinflation and more. Exercises and diagrams, and a global perspective – incorporating both developed and emerging economies - make this a broadly useful, real-world oriented text on a complex and shifting subject.
Book Synopsis International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility by : Suk-Joong Kim
Download or read book International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility written by Suk-Joong Kim and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Linkage by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Macroeconomic Linkage written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores East Asia's macroeconomic experience in the 1980s and the economic impact of East Asia's growth on the rest of the world. The authors explore the causes of capital flows, changes in trade balances, and exchange rate fluctuations in East Asia and their effects on other countries. These fourteen papers are organized around four themes: the overall determinants of growth and trading relations in the East Asian region; monetary policies in relation to capital controls and capital accounts; the impact of exchange rate behavior on industrial structure; and the potential for greater regional integration. The contributors examine interactions among exchange rate movements, trade balances, and capital flows; how government monetary policy affects capital flows; the effect of exchange rates on industrial structure, inventories, and prices; and the extent of regional integration in East Asia.
Book Synopsis Current Issues in Monetary Economics by : Taradas Bandyopadhyay
Download or read book Current Issues in Monetary Economics written by Taradas Bandyopadhyay and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 1990 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together leading academics and researchers to make a timely contribution to our understanding of the key issues in the fast-developing field of monetary economics. It offers a thoroughly comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of major areas such as money supply and demand, interest rate determination, international transmission of inflation, public debt, stabilization of the economy, the rational expectations hypothesis and the relationship between money and economic development. The book will be essential reading for all undergraduate and graduate students of monetary economics and macroeconomic theory. Contents: Preface; Contributors; Introduction: Taradas Bandyopadhyay and Subrata Ghatak; Money demand and supply, M.J. Artis and M.K. Lewis; Money market operations of the Bank of England and the determination of interest rates, David T. Llewellyn; Real interest rates and the role of expectations, Kajal Lahiri and Mark Zaporowski; Public sector deficits and the money supply, P.M. Jackson; The international transmission of inflation, George Zis; A critique of monetary theories of the balance of payments; nihil ex nihilo, M.H.L. Burstein; A framework for the analysis of two-tier exchange markets with incomplete segmentation, Jagdeep S. Bhandari and Bernard Decaluwe; Rational expectations and monetary policy, Patrick Minford; Monetary policy and credibility, Paul Levine; Disinflation and wage-price controls, David A. Wilton; Monetary growth models: The role of money demand functions, Taradas Bandyopadhyay and Subrata Ghatak; Index.
Book Synopsis Essays in International Money and Finance by : James R Lothian
Download or read book Essays in International Money and Finance written by James R Lothian and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2017-06-29 with total page 820 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of the book is to make the author's scholarly research in the areas of international finance and monetary economics easily accessible to other researchers and students. The articles included in the book span a wide range. The topics include the behavior of the three key relations in international finance, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and real interest rate equality, the relation between money and other key economic variables, financial globalization and the transmission of economic disturbances internationally.
Book Synopsis A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium by : Emanuel Kopp
Download or read book A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium written by Emanuel Kopp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Rules by : John B. Taylor
Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
Book Synopsis Changes in the Relationship Between the Long-Term Interest Rate and its Determinants by : Mr.William Lee
Download or read book Changes in the Relationship Between the Long-Term Interest Rate and its Determinants written by Mr.William Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-10-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the relative importance of alternative explanations for the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States from October 1993 to April 1994. Standard econometric models of the term structure are shown to have a structural break in the early 1980s. An important reason for this change in the traditional term structure relationship appears to be an increase in the responsiveness of long-term rates to changes in the stance of monetary policy. Augmented term structure models that explicitly incorporate the role of monetary policy in determining the level of long-term rates are then constructed. These models track variations in the long-term rate better than traditional term structure models, but still leave a significant fraction of the recent increase in long-term rates unexplained.
Download or read book Macroeconomics written by Jagdish Handa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 611 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the stylized facts on the important variables (output, inflation, money supply and interest rates, etc.) of the macro economy and uses them to differentiate how well particular economic theories perform or fail to do so. On the determination of aggregate demand, this book presents two approaches: the traditional IS-LM analysis under the assumption that the money supply is exogenous because the central bank uses its monetary policy to control it, and the emerging IS-IRT analysis under the assumption that the interest rate is the exogenous monetary policy variable set by the central bank to manipulate aggregate demand in the economy. The IS-IRT analysis is important for the macro analyses of many economies, yet is totally neglected in most textbooks on macroeconomics. The chapter on Paradigms in Economics introduces students to the heritage of ideas in macroeconomics, and the evolution of ideas and approaches over the last two centuries. It also provides the justification for the simultaneous relevance of both Classical ideas and Keynesian ones. The two growth theory chapters go beyond the Solow growth model to cover the broad evolution of growth from Malthus's theory to the present endogenous approaches, and the link between money supply, inflation and growth over very long periods.
Book Synopsis Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel by : Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba
Download or read book Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel written by Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses.
Book Synopsis Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables by : Abdul Rafay
Download or read book Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables written by Abdul Rafay and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Importance of stock market in the economic development of a country cannot be denied, and macroeconomic variables are important indicators that affect stock market of a country. Present study provides a great contribution to understand the association of these variables with stock market. This paper deals with the causal relationship among KSE 100 index and interest rate, exchange rate, consumer price index, imports and exports. For this purpose data of nineteen years has been collected from 1992 to 2010. Techniques of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, regression analysis and Granger Causality test have been applied to examine the causal relationship of selected macroeconomic variables with KSE 100 index. Results of regression analysis indicate the presence of strong positive relation between IMP and KSEI. Furthermore, interest rate, exchange rate, consumer price index and exports have no relationship with KSE 100 index. Results of Granger Causality test demonstrate that bi-directional relationship exists between interest rate and KSE 100 index. Exchange rate and imports have uni-directional relationship with KSE 100 index and no causal relationship exists between consumer price index, exports and KSE 100 index. Present study provides valuable contribution in knowledge. It is important and attractive not only for investors but also for policy makers.
Book Synopsis Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics by : Carlo Giannini
Download or read book Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics written by Carlo Giannini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction 1 2. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the K-Mode1 10 3. Identification Analysis and F.I.ML. Estimation for the C-Model 23 4. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the AB-Model 32 5. Impulse Response Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition in SVAR Modeling 44 5 .a Impulse Response Analysis 44 5.b Variance Decomposition (by Antonio Lanzarotti) 51 6. Long-run A-priori Information. Deterministic Components. Cointegration 58 6.a Long-run A-priori Information 58 6.b Deterministic Components 62 6.c Cointegration 65 7. The Working of an AB-Model 71 Annex 1: The Notions ofReduced Form and Structure in Structural VAR Modeling 83 Annex 2: Some Considerations on the Semantics, Choice and Management of the K, C and AB-Models 87 Appendix A 93 Appendix B 96 Appendix C (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 99 Appendix D (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 109 References 128 Foreword In recent years a growing interest in the structural VAR approach (SVAR) has followed the path-breaking works by Blanchard and Watson (1986), Bemanke (1986) and Sims (1986), especially in U.S. applied macroeconometric literature. The approach can be used in two different, partially overlapping directions: the interpretation ofbusiness cycle fluctuations of a small number of significantmacroeconomic variables and the identification of the effects of different policies.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco by : Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
Download or read book Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco written by Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve in Morocco during 2004–14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, we explore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is of direct relevance to macroeconomic policy-making. In Morocco’s context, we find that tighter monetary policy increases short-end maturities, and that the impact is small and short-lived. Economic activity is also briefly but significantly impacted, suggesting that even under a pegged exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy and effectiveness can be increased through greater central bank independence. Fiscal improvements significantly lower yield levels. Policy conclusions are that improvement in the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, as well as greater financial sector development and inclusion, could benefit Morocco and strengthen the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
