Labor Market Dynamics A Hidden Markov Approach

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Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach

Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513524895
Total Pages : 71 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach by : Mr.Ippei Shibata

Download or read book Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach written by Mr.Ippei Shibata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-20 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.

Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Countries

Author : Mariano Bosch
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Countries by : Mariano Bosch

Download or read book Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Countries written by Mariano Bosch and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The authors study the dynamics of three developing country labor markets using recent advances in the estimation of continuous time Markov processes. They first examine the flows of workers among five states: three types of paid labor, unemployment, and out of the labor force. The authors find a high degree of commonality in patterns of worker flows among the three countries and attempt to compare the flexibility of the markets by examining an index of overall mobility. Second, they seek to establish whether the issues of advanced country labor markets apply to developing country markets or whether the latter constitute a different phylum. Paralleling the mainstream literature on the role of being out of the labor force as discouraged unemployment, the authors then identify some common stylized facts about the role of the informal self-employed and salaried sectors and to what degree they serve as a holding pattern versus a desirable alternative to formal sector work. In the process, the authors identify very strong differences in mobility patterns between men and women and attempt to shed some light on whether these differences arise from discrimination or perhaps instead the constraints imposed by household responsibilities. Finally, they study labor market adjustment across the business cycle in Mexico and identify patterns of job creation and destruction among the three paid sectors and confirm the mainstream view of the role of out of the labor force as a procyclical phenomenon.

Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach

Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513519263
Total Pages : 71 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach by : Mr.Ippei Shibata

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498301584
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey by : Mr.Ippei Shibata

Download or read book Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey written by Mr.Ippei Shibata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-26 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.

Studies in Labor Market Dynamics

Author : G. R. Neumann
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 364288315X
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (428 download)

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Book Synopsis Studies in Labor Market Dynamics by : G. R. Neumann

Download or read book Studies in Labor Market Dynamics written by G. R. Neumann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume consists of papers presented at a conference on labor mar ket theory held in August 1982 at Sandbjerg - a manor house situated in S0nderjylland owned by University of Aarhus. The conference was ar ranged to mark the start of a labor market research project utilizing the first Danish longitudinal data set. The conference was meant to present a survey of the recent developments within labor market theory where unemployment at a given time is seen as a result of flows of in dividuals between the various labor market states. Consequently, al most all papers deal with aspects of transitions on the labor market. The first paper by Andersen discusses from a statisticians point of view how it is possible to analyze longitudinal data on labor market dynamics using statistical models for multivariate counting processes. Models including general calendar time specific intensities and models specifying the distribution of spell lengths as well as their combina tions are included. Finally it is demonstrated how the effect of exo genous, endogenous, and other time dependent variables can be model led. This paper does also contain an example of the application of the model.

Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Countries

Author : Mariano Bosch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)

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Book Synopsis Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Countries by : Mariano Bosch

Download or read book Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Countries written by Mariano Bosch and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors study the dynamics of three developing country labor markets using recent advances in the estimation of continuous time Markov processes. They first examine the flows of workers among five states: three types of paid labor, unemployment, and out of the labor force. The authors find a high degree of commonality in patterns of worker flows among the three countries and attempt to compare the flexibility of the markets by examining an index of overall mobility. Second, they seek to establish whether the issues of advanced country labor markets apply to developing country markets or whether the latter constitute a different phylum. Paralleling the mainstream literature on the role of being out of the labor force as discouraged unemployment, the authors then identify some common stylized facts about the role of the informal self-employed and salaried sectors and to what degree they serve as a holding pattern versus a desirable alternative to formal sector work. In the process, the authors identify very strong differences in mobility patterns between men and women and attempt to shed some light on whether these differences arise from discrimination or perhaps instead the constraints imposed by household responsibilities. Finally, they study labor market adjustment across the business cycle in Mexico and identify patterns of job creation and destruction among the three paid sectors and confirm the mainstream view of the role of out of the labor force as a procyclical phenomenon.

Labor Markets and Employment Relationships

Author : Joyce Jacobsen
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1405142308
Total Pages : 586 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (51 download)

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Book Synopsis Labor Markets and Employment Relationships by : Joyce Jacobsen

Download or read book Labor Markets and Employment Relationships written by Joyce Jacobsen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 586 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This innovative text grounds the economic analysis of labor markets and employment relationships in a unified theoretical treatment of labor exchange conditions. In addition to providing thorough coverage of standard topics including labor supply and demand, human capital theory, and compensating wage differentials, the text draws on game theory and the economics of information to study the implications of key departures from perfectly competitive labor market conditions. Analytical results are consistently applied to contemporary policy issues and empirical debates. Provides a coherent theoretical framework for the analysis of labor market phenomena Features graphical in-chapter analysis supplemented by technical material in appendices Incorporates numerous end-of-chapter questions that engage the analysis and anticipate subsequent results Includes innovative chapters on employee compensation methods, market segmentation, income inequality and labor market dynamics Balances theoretical, empirical and policy analysis

Empirical Methods for the Study of Labor Force Dynamics

Author : Kenneth I. Wolpin
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 9783718657384
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (573 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Methods for the Study of Labor Force Dynamics by : Kenneth I. Wolpin

Download or read book Empirical Methods for the Study of Labor Force Dynamics written by Kenneth I. Wolpin and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on the methods by which behavioural theories of labour force dynamics have been empirically implemented. Most attention is paid to the partial equilibrium two-state transitional model of job search behaviour.

Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey

Author : Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498300456
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey by : Mr.Ippei Shibata

Advanced Methods for Modeling Markets

Author : Peter S. H. Leeflang
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319534696
Total Pages : 733 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Methods for Modeling Markets by : Peter S. H. Leeflang

Download or read book Advanced Methods for Modeling Markets written by Peter S. H. Leeflang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 733 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents advanced techniques to modeling markets, with a wide spectrum of topics, including advanced individual demand models, time series analysis, state space models, spatial models, structural models, mediation, models that specify competition and diffusion models. It is intended as a follow-on and companion to Modeling Markets (2015), in which the authors presented the basics of modeling markets along the classical steps of the model building process: specification, data collection, estimation, validation and implementation. This volume builds on the concepts presented in Modeling Markets with an emphasis on advanced methods that are used to specify, estimate and validate marketing models, including structural equation models, partial least squares, mixture models, and hidden Markov models, as well as generalized methods of moments, Bayesian analysis, non/semi-parametric estimation and endogeneity issues. Specific attention is given to big data. The market environment is changing rapidly and constantly. Models that provide information about the sensitivity of market behavior to marketing activities such as advertising, pricing, promotions and distribution are now routinely used by managers for the identification of changes in marketing programs that can improve brand performance. In today’s environment of information overload, the challenge is to make sense of the data that is being provided globally, in real time, from thousands of sources. Although marketing models are now widely accepted, the quality of the marketing decisions is critically dependent upon the quality of the models on which those decisions are based. This volume provides an authoritative and comprehensive review, with each chapter including: · an introduction to the method/methodology · a numerical example/application in marketing · references to other marketing applications · suggestions about software. Featuring contributions from top authors in the field, this volume will explore current and future aspects of modeling markets, providing relevant and timely research and techniques to scientists, researchers, students, academics and practitioners in marketing, management and economics.

Sequence Analysis and Related Approaches

Author : Matthias Studer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781013273841
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (738 download)

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Book Synopsis Sequence Analysis and Related Approaches by : Matthias Studer

Download or read book Sequence Analysis and Related Approaches written by Matthias Studer and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book provides innovative methods and original applications of sequence analysis (SA) and related methods for analysing longitudinal data describing life trajectories such as professional careers, family paths, the succession of health statuses, or the time use. The applications as well as the methodological contributions proposed in this book pay special attention to the combined use of SA and other methods for longitudinal data such as event history analysis, Markov modelling, and sequence network. The methodological contributions in this book include among others original propositions for measuring the precarity of work trajectories, Markov-based methods for clustering sequences, fuzzy and monothetic clustering of sequences, network-based SA, joint use of SA and hidden Markov models, and of SA and survival models. The applications cover the comparison of gendered occupational trajectories in Germany, the study of the changes in women market participation in Denmark, the study of typical day of dual-earner couples in Italy, of mobility patterns in Togo, of internet addiction in Switzerland, and of the quality of employment career after a first unemployment spell. As such this book provides a wealth of information for social scientists interested in quantitative life course analysis, and all those working in sociology, demography, economics, health, psychology, social policy, and statistics.; Provides new perspectives and methods for sequence analysis Focusses on the link between sequence analysis and other methods for longitudinal data, especially event history analysis and Markov models Stresses the complementarity of sequence analysis and other models for longitudinal data Applications of sequence analysis in a whole range of different domains This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.

Hidden Markov Models for Time Series

Author : Walter Zucchini
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1482253844
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (822 download)

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Book Synopsis Hidden Markov Models for Time Series by : Walter Zucchini

Download or read book Hidden Markov Models for Time Series written by Walter Zucchini and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data

Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time

Author : Jianjun Miao
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262325608
Total Pages : 737 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time by : Jianjun Miao

Download or read book Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time written by Jianjun Miao and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-09-19 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unified, comprehensive, and up-to-date introduction to the analytical and numerical tools for solving dynamic economic problems. This book offers a unified, comprehensive, and up-to-date treatment of analytical and numerical tools for solving dynamic economic problems. The focus is on introducing recursive methods—an important part of every economist's set of tools—and readers will learn to apply recursive methods to a variety of dynamic economic problems. The book is notable for its combination of theoretical foundations and numerical methods. Each topic is first described in theoretical terms, with explicit definitions and rigorous proofs; numerical methods and computer codes to implement these methods follow. Drawing on the latest research, the book covers such cutting-edge topics as asset price bubbles, recursive utility, robust control, policy analysis in dynamic New Keynesian models with the zero lower bound on interest rates, and Bayesian estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The book first introduces the theory of dynamical systems and numerical methods for solving dynamical systems, and then discusses the theory and applications of dynamic optimization. The book goes on to treat equilibrium analysis, covering a variety of core macroeconomic models, and such additional topics as recursive utility (increasingly used in finance and macroeconomics), dynamic games, and recursive contracts. The book introduces Dynare, a widely used software platform for handling a range of economic models; readers will learn to use Dynare for numerically solving DSGE models and performing Bayesian estimation of DSGE models. Mathematical appendixes present all the necessary mathematical concepts and results. Matlab codes used to solve examples are indexed and downloadable from the book's website. A solutions manual for students is available for sale from the MIT Press; a downloadable instructor's manual is available to qualified instructors.

History Of Marketing Science, The (Second Edition)

Author : Russell S Winer
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811272247
Total Pages : 848 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis History Of Marketing Science, The (Second Edition) by : Russell S Winer

Download or read book History Of Marketing Science, The (Second Edition) written by Russell S Winer and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2023-06-16 with total page 848 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of marketing science has evolved significantly in the last 70 years. Throughout its rich history, developments in this field have always been anchored on marketing phenomena that drew on economics, statistics, operations research, and related disciplines. This book reviews the accomplishments of notable marketing scientists in several research areas. It emphasizes both the role and the importance that pioneers in marketing science have had in the rapid development of this field and honors those contributions.This second edition of the book offers updates of the former chapters and six new chapters on emerging areas of marketing science including machine learning, field experimentation methods, and internet marketing. Combined with older areas of research like endogeneity, services, and market segmentation, this book provides a road map for the development of 22 areas of marketing science, which not only is useful from a historical perspective but also identifies important gaps in the literature which can provide an impetus for future research. As such, it provides an important resource for the main consumers of the academic marketing research literature: doctoral students, faculty, and marketing science practitioners in consulting firms and companies.

Handbook of Mixture Analysis

Author : Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429508247
Total Pages : 522 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (295 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Mixture Analysis by : Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter

Download or read book Handbook of Mixture Analysis written by Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-01-04 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mixture models have been around for over 150 years, and they are found in many branches of statistical modelling, as a versatile and multifaceted tool. They can be applied to a wide range of data: univariate or multivariate, continuous or categorical, cross-sectional, time series, networks, and much more. Mixture analysis is a very active research topic in statistics and machine learning, with new developments in methodology and applications taking place all the time. The Handbook of Mixture Analysis is a very timely publication, presenting a broad overview of the methods and applications of this important field of research. It covers a wide array of topics, including the EM algorithm, Bayesian mixture models, model-based clustering, high-dimensional data, hidden Markov models, and applications in finance, genomics, and astronomy. Features: Provides a comprehensive overview of the methods and applications of mixture modelling and analysis Divided into three parts: Foundations and Methods; Mixture Modelling and Extensions; and Selected Applications Contains many worked examples using real data, together with computational implementation, to illustrate the methods described Includes contributions from the leading researchers in the field The Handbook of Mixture Analysis is targeted at graduate students and young researchers new to the field. It will also be an important reference for anyone working in this field, whether they are developing new methodology, or applying the models to real scientific problems.

Hidden Markov Models

Author : Ramaprasad Bhar
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402079400
Total Pages : 167 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Hidden Markov Models by : Ramaprasad Bhar

Download or read book Hidden Markov Models written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-18 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.

Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions

Author : Mr.Tom Krebs
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475592248
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions by : Mr.Tom Krebs

Download or read book Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions written by Mr.Tom Krebs and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-03 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the effect of two labor market institutions, unemployment insurance (UI) and job search assistance (JSA), on the output cost and welfare cost of recessions. The paper develops a tractable incomplete-market model with search unemployment, skill depreciation during unemployment, and idiosyncratic as well as aggregate labor market risk. The theoretical analysis shows that an increase in JSA and a reduction in UI reduce the output cost of recessions by making the labor market more fluid along the job finding margin and thus making the economy more resilient to macroeconomic shocks. In contarst, the effect of JSA and UI on the welfare cost of recessions is in general ambiguous. The paper also provides a quantitative appliation to the German labor market reforms of 2003-2005, the so-called Hartz reforms, which improved JSA (Hartz III reform) and reduced UI (Hartz IV reform). According to the baseline calibration, the two labor market reforms led to a substantial reduction in the output cost of recessions and a moderate reduction in the welfare cost of recessions in Germany.