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Author : Carsien Harm Hommes
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (276 download)
Download or read book Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments written by Carsien Harm Hommes and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139619780
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (396 download)
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
Author : Gunnar Brennscheidt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642957188
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (429 download)
Download or read book Predictive Behavior written by Gunnar Brennscheidt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.
Author : John Duffy
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1784411949
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (844 download)
Download or read book Experiments in Macroeconomics written by John Duffy and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 17 entitled 'Experiments in Macroeconomics', of the Research in Experimental Economics Book Series is the first-ever collection by leading researchers in the field of laboratory studies aimed at understanding macroeconomic phenomena.
Author : Bruce Edmonds
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319669486
Total Pages : 833 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)
Download or read book Simulating Social Complexity written by Bruce Edmonds and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-24 with total page 833 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume examines all aspects of using agent or individual-based simulation. This approach represents systems as individual elements having their own set of differing states and internal processes. The interactions between elements in the simulation represent interactions in the target systems. What makes this "social" is that it can represent an observed society. Social systems include all those systems where the components have individual agency but also interact with each other. This includes human societies and groups, but also increasingly socio-technical systems where the internet-based devices form the substrate for interaction. These systems are central to our lives, but are among the most complex known. This poses particular problems for those who wish to understand them. The complexity often makes analytic approaches infeasible but, on the other hand, natural language approaches are also inadequate for relating intricate cause and effect. This is why individual and agent-based computational approaches hold out the possibility of new and deeper understanding of such systems. This handbook marks the maturation of this new field. It brings together summaries of the best thinking and practices in this area from leading researchers in the field and constitutes a reference point for standards against which future methodological advances can be judged. This second edition adds new chapters on different modelling purposes and applying software engineering methods to simulation development. Revised existing content will keep the book up-to-date with recent developments. This volume will help those new to the field avoid "reinventing the wheel" each time, and give them a solid and wide grounding in the essential issues. It will also help those already in the field by providing accessible overviews of current thought. The material is divided into four sections: Introduction, Methodology, Mechanisms, and Applications. Each chapter starts with a very brief section called ‘Why read this chapter?’ followed by an abstract, which summarizes the content of the chapter. Each chapter also ends with a section on ‘Further Reading’. Whilst sometimes covering technical aspects, this second edition of Simulating Social Complexity is designed to be accessible to a wide range of researchers, including both those from the social sciences as well as those with a more formal background. It will be of use as a standard reference text in the field and also be suitable for graduate level courses.
Author :
Publisher : ScholarlyEditions
ISBN 13 : 1481675206
Total Pages : 886 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (816 download)
Download or read book Economics—Advances in Research and Application: 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-06-21 with total page 886 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics—Advances in Research and Application: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Tariffs. The editors have built Economics—Advances in Research and Application: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Tariffs in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Economics—Advances in Research and Application: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Author : Thorsten Hens
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080921434
Total Pages : 607 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics
Author : Frédéric Amblard
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319095781
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Advances in Artificial Economics written by Frédéric Amblard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-11-08 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents a peer-reviewed collection of papers presented during the 10th issue of the Artificial Economics conference, addressing a variety of issues related to macroeconomics, industrial organization, networks, management and finance, as well as purely methodological issues. The field of artificial economics covers a broad range of methodologies relying on computer simulations in order to model and study the complexity of economic and social phenomena. The grounding principle of artificial economics is the analysis of aggregate properties of simulated systems populated by interacting adaptive agents that are equipped with heterogeneous individual behavioral rules. These macroscopic properties are neither foreseen nor intended by the artificial agents but generated collectively by them. They are emerging characteristics of such artificially simulated systems.
Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110701929X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, applies complexity modelling to economics and finance.
Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444641327
Total Pages : 836 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)
Download or read book Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling written by Cars Hommes and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 836 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling, Volume Four, focuses on heterogeneous agent models, emphasizing recent advances in macroeconomics (including DSGE), finance, empirical validation and experiments, networks and related applications. Capturing the advances made since the publication of Volume Two (Tesfatsion & Judd, 2006), it provides high-level literature with sections devoted to Macroeconomics, Finance, Empirical Validation and Experiments, Networks, and other applications, including Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations, Market Design and Electricity Markets, and a final section on Perspectives on Heterogeneity. Helps readers fully understand the dynamic properties of realistically rendered economic systems Emphasizes detailed specifications of structural conditions, institutional arrangements and behavioral dispositions Provides broad assessments that can lead researchers to recognize new synergies and opportunities
Author : Christian Borgelt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642147461
Total Pages : 640 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)
Download or read book Combining Soft Computing and Statistical Methods in Data Analysis written by Christian Borgelt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last forty years there has been a growing interest to extend probability theory and statistics and to allow for more flexible modelling of imprecision, uncertainty, vagueness and ignorance. The fact that in many real-life situations data uncertainty is not only present in the form of randomness (stochastic uncertainty) but also in the form of imprecision/fuzziness is but one point underlining the need for a widening of statistical tools. Most such extensions originate in a "softening" of classical methods, allowing, in particular, to work with imprecise or vague data, considering imprecise or generalized probabilities and fuzzy events, etc. About ten years ago the idea of establishing a recurrent forum for discussing new trends in the before-mentioned context was born and resulted in the first International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS) that was held in Warsaw in 2002. In the following years the conference took place in Oviedo (2004), in Bristol (2006) and in Toulouse (2008). In the current edition the conference returns to Oviedo. This edited volume is a collection of papers presented at the SMPS 2010 conference held in Mieres and Oviedo. It gives a comprehensive overview of current research into the fusion of soft methods with probability and statistics.
Author : Klaus Schredelseker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540705562
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Complexity and Artificial Markets written by Klaus Schredelseker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-07-30 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, agent-based simulation has become a widely accepted tool when dealing with complexity in economics and other social sciences. The contributions presented in this book apply agent-based methods to derive results from complex models related to market mechanisms, evolution, decision making, and information economics. In addition, the applicability of agent-based methods to complex problems in economics is discussed from a methodological perspective. The papers presented in this collection combine approaches from economics, finance, computer science, natural sciences, philosophy, and cognitive sciences.
Author : Sigeru Omatu
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319075934
Total Pages : 562 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence, 11th International Conference written by Sigeru Omatu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-30 with total page 562 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 11th International Symposium on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence 2014 (DCAI 2014) is a forum to present applications of innovative techniques for studying and solving complex problems. The exchange of ideas between scientists and technicians from both the academic and industrial sector is essential to facilitate the development of systems that can meet the ever-increasing demands of today’s society. The present edition brings together past experience, current work and promising future trends associated with distributed computing, artificial intelligence and their application in order to provide efficient solutions to real problems. This year’s technical program presents both high quality and diversity, with contributions in well-established and evolving areas of research (Algeria, Brazil, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Portugal, Republic of Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Tunisia, Ukraine, United Kingdom), representing a truly “wide area network” of research activity. DCAI'14 Special Sessions have been a very useful tool in order to complement the regular program with new or emerging topics of particular interest to the participating community. Special Sessions that emphasize on multi-disciplinary and transversal aspects, such as AI-driven methods for Multimodal Networks and Processes Modeling and Multi-Agents Macroeconomics have been especially encouraged and welcome. This symposium is organized by the Bioinformatics, Intelligent System and Educational Technology Research Group (http://bisite.usal.es/) of the University of Salamanca. The present edition was held in Salamanca, Spain, from 4th to 6th June 2014.
Author : Domenico Delli Gatti
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108243983
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (82 download)
Download or read book Agent-Based Models in Economics written by Domenico Delli Gatti and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-22 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, labour markets, and economic growth.
Author : Gunnar Brennscheidt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783642957192
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (571 download)
Download or read book Predictive Behavior written by Gunnar Brennscheidt and published by . This book was released on 1993-11-29 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels, underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc., are studied.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : John Davis
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315471590
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)
Download or read book Reflexivity and Economics written by John Davis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The form of ‘reflexivity’ – defined by the dictionary as that which is ‘directed back upon itself’ – that is most relevant to economic methodology is that where observation of the economy leads to ideas that change behavior, which in turn changes (is directed back upon) the economy itself. As George Soros explains: "if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, and that in turn will change the nature of the markets they are observing ... That is the principle of reflexivity". Although various versions of reflexivity have long been discussed, in recent years George Soros has been particularly effective in bringing ideas about reflexivity to the attention of the economic and financial communities. In a series of writings he has systematically argued that reflexivity is not only an important aspect of economic life, it is an aspect that is neglected in most mainstream theorizing; and in addition, that the neglect of reflexivity has been responsible for the failure of economists to predict, explain, or offer a solution for events such as the recent financial crisis. Soros’ ideas about reflexivity have important methodological significance, and his chapter in this book summarizes and clarifies his arguments. His contribution is joined by those of thirteen scholars from a wide range of relevant fields, who provide a commentary on the idea of reflexivity in economics. This book was originally published as a special issue of The Journal of Economic Methodology.
