Identification For Prediction And Decision

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Identification for Prediction and Decision

Author : Charles F. Manski
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674033665
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (336 download)

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Book Synopsis Identification for Prediction and Decision by : Charles F. Manski

Download or read book Identification for Prediction and Decision written by Charles F. Manski and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can be learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject to sharp disagreements. Building on the foundation laid in the author's Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (Harvard, 1995), the book's fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population. Part III studies prediction of choice behavior. Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of probability theory.

Public Policy in an Uncertain World

Author : Charles F. Manski
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674067541
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Public Policy in an Uncertain World by : Charles F. Manski

Download or read book Public Policy in an Uncertain World written by Charles F. Manski and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2013-02-14 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.

A Course in Econometrics

Author : Arthur Stanley Goldberger
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674175440
Total Pages : 430 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (754 download)

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Book Synopsis A Course in Econometrics by : Arthur Stanley Goldberger

Download or read book A Course in Econometrics written by Arthur Stanley Goldberger and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text prepares first-year graduate students and advanced undergraduates for empirical research in economics, and also equips them for specialization in econometric theory, business, and sociology. A Course in Econometrics is likely to be the text most thoroughly attuned to the needs of your students. Derived from the course taught by Arthur S. Goldberger at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and at Stanford University, it is specifically designed for use over two semesters, offers students the most thorough grounding in introductory statistical inference, and offers a substantial amount of interpretive material. The text brims with insights, strikes a balance between rigor and intuition, and provokes students to form their own critical opinions. A Course in Econometrics thoroughly covers the fundamentals--classical regression and simultaneous equations--and offers clear and logical explorations of asymptotic theory and nonlinear regression. To accommodate students with various levels of preparation, the text opens with a thorough review of statistical concepts and methods, then proceeds to the regression model and its variants. Bold subheadings introduce and highlight key concepts throughout each chapter. Each chapter concludes with a set of exercises specifically designed to reinforce and extend the material covered. Many of the exercises include real microdata analyses, and all are ideally suited to use as homework and test questions.

Identification Problems in the Social Sciences

Author : Charles F. Manski
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674442849
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (428 download)

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Book Synopsis Identification Problems in the Social Sciences by : Charles F. Manski

Download or read book Identification Problems in the Social Sciences written by Charles F. Manski and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author draws on examples from a range of disciplines to provide social and behavioural scientists with a toolkit for finding bounds when predicting behaviours based upon nonexperimental and experimental data.

Patient Care Under Uncertainty

Author : Charles F. Manski
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691194734
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Patient Care Under Uncertainty by : Charles F. Manski

Download or read book Patient Care Under Uncertainty written by Charles F. Manski and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-09-10 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the past few years, the author, a renowned economist, has been applying the statistical tools of economics to decision making under uncertainty in the context of patient health status and response to treatment. He shows how statistical imprecision and identification problems affect empirical research in the patient-care sphere.

Surfing Uncertainty

Author : Andy Clark
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190217014
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Surfing Uncertainty by : Andy Clark

Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.

Interpretable Machine Learning

Author : Christoph Molnar
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 0244768528
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (447 download)

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Book Synopsis Interpretable Machine Learning by : Christoph Molnar

Download or read book Interpretable Machine Learning written by Christoph Molnar and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2020 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.

The Book of Why

Author : Judea Pearl
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465097618
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis The Book of Why by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Identifying the Culprit

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309310628
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying the Culprit by : National Research Council

Download or read book Identifying the Culprit written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-01-16 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eyewitnesses play an important role in criminal cases when they can identify culprits. Estimates suggest that tens of thousands of eyewitnesses make identifications in criminal investigations each year. Research on factors that affect the accuracy of eyewitness identification procedures has given us an increasingly clear picture of how identifications are made, and more importantly, an improved understanding of the principled limits on vision and memory that can lead to failure of identification. Factors such as viewing conditions, duress, elevated emotions, and biases influence the visual perception experience. Perceptual experiences are stored by a system of memory that is highly malleable and continuously evolving, neither retaining nor divulging content in an informational vacuum. As such, the fidelity of our memories to actual events may be compromised by many factors at all stages of processing, from encoding to storage and retrieval. Unknown to the individual, memories are forgotten, reconstructed, updated, and distorted. Complicating the process further, policies governing law enforcement procedures for conducting and recording identifications are not standard, and policies and practices to address the issue of misidentification vary widely. These limitations can produce mistaken identifications with significant consequences. What can we do to make certain that eyewitness identification convicts the guilty and exonerates the innocent? Identifying the Culprit makes the case that better data collection and research on eyewitness identification, new law enforcement training protocols, standardized procedures for administering line-ups, and improvements in the handling of eyewitness identification in court can increase the chances that accurate identifications are made. This report explains the science that has emerged during the past 30 years on eyewitness identifications and identifies best practices in eyewitness procedures for the law enforcement community and in the presentation of eyewitness evidence in the courtroom. In order to continue the advancement of eyewitness identification research, the report recommends a focused research agenda. Identifying the Culprit will be an essential resource to assist the law enforcement and legal communities as they seek to understand the value and the limitations of eyewitness identification and make improvements to procedures.

Developing a Protocol for Observational Comparative Effectiveness Research: A User's Guide

Author : Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (U.S.)
Publisher : Government Printing Office
ISBN 13 : 1587634236
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (876 download)

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Book Synopsis Developing a Protocol for Observational Comparative Effectiveness Research: A User's Guide by : Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (U.S.)

Download or read book Developing a Protocol for Observational Comparative Effectiveness Research: A User's Guide written by Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (U.S.) and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2013-02-21 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This User’s Guide is a resource for investigators and stakeholders who develop and review observational comparative effectiveness research protocols. It explains how to (1) identify key considerations and best practices for research design; (2) build a protocol based on these standards and best practices; and (3) judge the adequacy and completeness of a protocol. Eleven chapters cover all aspects of research design, including: developing study objectives, defining and refining study questions, addressing the heterogeneity of treatment effect, characterizing exposure, selecting a comparator, defining and measuring outcomes, and identifying optimal data sources. Checklists of guidance and key considerations for protocols are provided at the end of each chapter. The User’s Guide was created by researchers affiliated with AHRQ’s Effective Health Care Program, particularly those who participated in AHRQ’s DEcIDE (Developing Evidence to Inform Decisions About Effectiveness) program. Chapters were subject to multiple internal and external independent reviews. More more information, please consult the Agency website: www.effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov)

Signal Analysis and Prediction

Author : Ales Prochazka
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780817640422
Total Pages : 536 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (44 download)

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Book Synopsis Signal Analysis and Prediction by : Ales Prochazka

Download or read book Signal Analysis and Prediction written by Ales Prochazka and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1998-12-23 with total page 536 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methods of signal analysis represent a broad research topic with applications in many disciplines, including engineering, technology, biomedicine, seismography, eco nometrics, and many others based upon the processing of observed variables. Even though these applications are widely different, the mathematical background be hind them is similar and includes the use of the discrete Fourier transform and z-transform for signal analysis, and both linear and non-linear methods for signal identification, modelling, prediction, segmentation, and classification. These meth ods are in many cases closely related to optimization problems, statistical methods, and artificial neural networks. This book incorporates a collection of research papers based upon selected contri butions presented at the First European Conference on Signal Analysis and Predic tion (ECSAP-97) in Prague, Czech Republic, held June 24-27, 1997 at the Strahov Monastery. Even though the Conference was intended as a European Conference, at first initiated by the European Association for Signal Processing (EURASIP), it was very gratifying that it also drew significant support from other important scientific societies, including the lEE, Signal Processing Society of IEEE, and the Acoustical Society of America. The organizing committee was pleased that the re sponse from the academic community to participate at this Conference was very large; 128 summaries written by 242 authors from 36 countries were received. In addition, the Conference qualified under the Continuing Professional Development Scheme to provide PD units for participants and contributors.

Judgment and Decision Making

Author : Baruch Fischhoff
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136497331
Total Pages : 405 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (364 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making by : Baruch Fischhoff

Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.

Stochastic Systems

Author : P. R. Kumar
Publisher : SIAM
ISBN 13 : 1611974259
Total Pages : 371 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Systems by : P. R. Kumar

Download or read book Stochastic Systems written by P. R. Kumar and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2015-12-15 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its origins in the 1940s, the subject of decision making under uncertainty has grown into a diversified area with application in several branches of engineering and in those areas of the social sciences concerned with policy analysis and prescription. These approaches required a computing capacity too expensive for the time, until the ability to collect and process huge quantities of data engendered an explosion of work in the area. This book provides succinct and rigorous treatment of the foundations of stochastic control; a unified approach to filtering, estimation, prediction, and stochastic and adaptive control; and the conceptual framework necessary to understand current trends in stochastic control, data mining, machine learning, and robotics.

Authorship Attribution

Author : Patrick Juola
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 160198118X
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Authorship Attribution by : Patrick Juola

Download or read book Authorship Attribution written by Patrick Juola and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Authorship Attribution surveys the history and present state of the discipline, presenting some comparative results where available. It also provides a theoretical and empirically-tested basis for further work. Many modern techniques are described and evaluated, along with some insights for application for novices and experts alike.

System Identification

Author : Lennart Ljung
Publisher : Pearson Education
ISBN 13 : 0132440539
Total Pages : 873 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (324 download)

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Book Synopsis System Identification by : Lennart Ljung

Download or read book System Identification written by Lennart Ljung and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 1998-12-29 with total page 873 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field's leading text, now completely updated. Modeling dynamical systems — theory, methodology, and applications. Lennart Ljung's System Identification: Theory for the User is a complete, coherent description of the theory, methodology, and practice of System Identification. This completely revised Second Edition introduces subspace methods, methods that utilize frequency domain data, and general non-linear black box methods, including neural networks and neuro-fuzzy modeling. The book contains many new computer-based examples designed for Ljung's market-leading software, System Identification Toolbox for MATLAB. Ljung combines careful mathematics, a practical understanding of real-world applications, and extensive exercises. He introduces both black-box and tailor-made models of linear as well as non-linear systems, and he describes principles, properties, and algorithms for a variety of identification techniques: Nonparametric time-domain and frequency-domain methods. Parameter estimation methods in a general prediction error setting. Frequency domain data and frequency domain interpretations. Asymptotic analysis of parameter estimates. Linear regressions, iterative search methods, and other ways to compute estimates. Recursive (adaptive) estimation techniques. Ljung also presents detailed coverage of the key issues that can make or break system identification projects, such as defining objectives, designing experiments, controlling the bias distribution of transfer-function estimates, and carefully validating the resulting models. The first edition of System Identification has been the field's most widely cited reference for over a decade. This new edition will be the new text of choice for anyone concerned with system identification theory and practice.

Artificial Intelligence and Legal Analytics

Author : Kevin D. Ashley
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107171504
Total Pages : 451 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Artificial Intelligence and Legal Analytics by : Kevin D. Ashley

Download or read book Artificial Intelligence and Legal Analytics written by Kevin D. Ashley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-07-10 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes how text analytics and computational models of legal reasoning will improve legal IR and let computers help humans solve legal problems.

Fundamentals of Machine Learning for Predictive Data Analytics, second edition

Author : John D. Kelleher
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262361108
Total Pages : 853 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Machine Learning for Predictive Data Analytics, second edition by : John D. Kelleher

Download or read book Fundamentals of Machine Learning for Predictive Data Analytics, second edition written by John D. Kelleher and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-10-20 with total page 853 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of a comprehensive introduction to machine learning approaches used in predictive data analytics, covering both theory and practice. Machine learning is often used to build predictive models by extracting patterns from large datasets. These models are used in predictive data analytics applications including price prediction, risk assessment, predicting customer behavior, and document classification. This introductory textbook offers a detailed and focused treatment of the most important machine learning approaches used in predictive data analytics, covering both theoretical concepts and practical applications. Technical and mathematical material is augmented with explanatory worked examples, and case studies illustrate the application of these models in the broader business context. This second edition covers recent developments in machine learning, especially in a new chapter on deep learning, and two new chapters that go beyond predictive analytics to cover unsupervised learning and reinforcement learning.