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How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions
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Book Synopsis How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? by : Zidong An
Download or read book How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Book Synopsis Information Rigidities by : Jonas Dovern
Download or read book Information Rigidities written by Jonas Dovern and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-12 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line “noisy” information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies.
Book Synopsis Understanding Economic Forecasts by : David F. Hendry
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Book Synopsis Economic and Business Forecasting by : John E. Silvia
Download or read book Economic and Business Forecasting written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-10 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest. Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
Book Synopsis The Long Good Buy by : Peter C. Oppenheimer
Download or read book The Long Good Buy written by Peter C. Oppenheimer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-04-09 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PRAISE FOR THE LONG GOOD BUY: "Oppenheimer offers brilliant insights, sage advice and entertaining anecdotes. Anyone wishing to understand how financial markets behave – and misbehave – should read this book now." Stephen D. King, economist and author of Grave New World: The End of Globalisation, the Return of History "Peter has always been one of the masters of dissecting financial markets performance into an understandable narrative, and in this book, he pulls together much of his great thinking and style from his career, and it should be useful for anyone trying to understand what drives markets, especially equities." Lord Jim O'Neill, Chair, Chatham House "A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and long-term investment returns." Keith Skeoch, CEO, Standard Life Aberdeen "This book eloquently blends the author's vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be basic reading for any student of finance." Elias Papaioannou, Professor of Economics, London Business School "This is an excellent book, capturing the insights of a leading market practitioner within the structured analytical framework he has developed over many years. It offers a lively and unique perspective on how markets work and where they are headed." Huw Pill, Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School "The Long Good Buy is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes. It is lucidly written in a simple logical way, requires no mathematical expertise and draws on an amazing collection of historical data and research. For me it is the best and most comprehensive introduction to the subject that exists." Lord Brian Griffiths, Chairman - Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, Oxford
Book Synopsis What I Learned About Investing from Darwin by : Pulak Prasad
Download or read book What I Learned About Investing from Darwin written by Pulak Prasad and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2023-05-23 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The investment profession is in a state of crisis. The vast majority of equity fund managers are unable to beat the market over the long term, which has led to massive outflows from active funds to passive funds. Where should investors turn in search of a new approach? Pulak Prasad offers a philosophy of patient long-term investing based on an unexpected source: evolutionary biology. He draws key lessons from core Darwinian concepts, mixing vivid examples from the natural world with compelling stories of good and bad investing decisions—including his own. How can bumblebees’ survival strategies help us accept that we might miss out on Tesla? What does an experiment in breeding tame foxes reveal about the traits of successful businesses? Why might a small frog’s mimicry of the croak of a larger rival shed light on the signs of corporate dishonesty? Informed by successful evolutionary strategies, Prasad outlines his counterintuitive principles for long-term gain. He provides three mantras of investing: Avoid big risks; buy high quality at a fair price; and don’t be lazy—be very lazy. Prasad makes a persuasive case for a strategy that rules out the vast majority of investment opportunities and advocates permanently owning high-quality businesses. Combining punchy prose and practical insight, What I Learned About Investing from Darwin reveals why evolutionary biology can help fund managers become better at their craft.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Real Estate Analysis by : David Rees
Download or read book Real Estate Analysis written by David Rees and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-10-09 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real Estate Analysis: A Toolkit for Property Analysts presents economic and financial models, applications and insights, packaged as a toolkit for analysts and other participants in commercial and residential real estate markets. Participants in property markets – analysts, brokers, commentators as well as investors and tenants – move seamlessly across a range of physical and financial markets. They employ models that illuminate market activity: the tools of supply and demand to explain rental trends and to forecast vacancy rates and construction cycles; forecasts of macro-economists foreshadow shoppers’ spending behaviour in shopping malls and the growth in demand for office space; capital market arithmetic to apply discount and capitalisation rates. Currently these topics are often scattered through textbooks. This book brings these tools together and situates them in a real estate market context. Topics addressed include: • The interaction of markets – capital, space and physical assets • Debt, the cost of capital and investment hurdle rates • Real options – valuing lease contracts and land • Risk – what counts, what doesn’t (systemic and non-systemic risk) • Discounted rates and capitalisation rates – interpreting spreads to sovereign bond yields • Externalities – why do markets “fail”; what are the “solutions”? • Property rights – different rules, different outcomes • Exploitation for natural resources (exhaustible, renewable) – how does discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) fit in? • Cost-benefit analysis – the analytics of compensation payments • Forecasting – purpose and process The foundations and the scaffolding that underpin and support real estate market analysis are the focus of this book. Its purpose is to complement, sometimes augment, the subject matter of real estate training programs. The prospective audience includes curious professionals and researchers, seeking perspectives that extend standard class-room fare.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by : James H. Stock
Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Book Synopsis The Progress Illusion by : Jon D. Erickson
Download or read book The Progress Illusion written by Jon D. Erickson and published by Island Press. This book was released on 2022-12-01 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live under the illusion of progress: as long as GDP is going up and prices stay low, we accept poverty and pollution as unfortunate but inevitable byproducts of a successful economy. In fact, the infallibility of the free market and the necessity of endless growth are so ingrained in the public consciousness that they seem like scientific fact. Jon Erickson asks, why? With the planet in peril and humanity in crisis, how did we get duped into believing the fairytale of economics? And how can we get past the illusion to design an economy that is socially just and ecologically balanced? In The Progress Illusion, Erickson charts the rise of the economic worldview and its infiltration into our daily lives as a theory of everything. Drawing on his own experience as a young economist inoculated in the 1980s era of “greed is good,” Erickson shows how pseudoscience came to dominate economic thought. He pokes holes in the conventional wisdom of neo-classical economics, illustrating how flawed theories about financial decision-making and maximizing efficiency ignore human psychology and morality. Most importantly, he demonstrates how that thinking shaped our politics and determined the course of American public policy. The result has been a system that perpetually concentrates wealth in the hands of a few, while depleting the natural resources on which economies are based. While the history of economics is dismal indeed, Erickson is part of a vigorous reform effort grounded in the realities of life on a finite planet. This new brand of economics is both gaining steam in academia and supporting social activism. The goal is people over profit, community over consumption, and resilience over recklessness. Erickson shows crafting a new economic story is the first step toward turning away from endless growth and towards enduring prosperity.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Has Asia Lost It?: Dynamic Past, Turbulent Future by : Vasuki Shastry
Download or read book Has Asia Lost It?: Dynamic Past, Turbulent Future written by Vasuki Shastry and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-02-25 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''Shastry's polemic cites extensive research from experts and exploits the author's knowledge of Asia and his connections to the region's elite, with whom he rubs shoulders at Davos and other summits. What shows through in the book though is Shastry's compassion for the continent's ordinary people.'IMF F&D MagazineAsia has been the greatest show on earth since Japan's rise from the ashes of World War II, accompanied in successive decades with the emergence of the Asian tigers, and eventually the two giants China and India. The Asian miracle has few precedents in the modern era, with billions lifted from poverty in a generation. The region's openness to trade and investment aligned perfectly with the tailwinds of globalisation. However, in recent years Asia has become a victim of its own success with commentators not differentiating between a utopian high-income Asia and a dystopian middle- and low-income Asia, where a significant majority of the region's population live. Asia today can be divided into countries which have a lot, have a little, and have none. The continent's dream run is also coming to an end as Covid-19 exposes sharp weaknesses in state capacity and structural challenges like the U.S.-China trade war is putting globalisation into reverse gear, jeopardising the region's hard-earned economic success. Asia's growth-obsessed policymakers have also ignored social pressures from the impact of technology on jobs, rising inequality, fabulous wealth accumulation by a favoured billionaire class, a deepening demographic divide, climate distress, and gender disparity, which threaten to destabilise the region's famed cohesiveness. In his penetrating new book, well-known Asia expert Vasuki Shastry argues that while Asia's reckoning may have been the subject of speculation before the pandemic, Covid-19 has made that inevitable. Inspired by Dante's Inferno, Shastry takes readers on a journey through modern Asia's eight circles of hell where we encounter urban cowboys and cowgirls fleeing rural areas to live in increasingly uninhabitable cities, disadvantaged teenage girls unable to meet their aspirations due to social strictures, internal mutiny, messy geopolitics from the rise of China, and a political and business class whose interests are in conflict with a majority of the population. Shastry challenges conventional thinking about Asia's place in the world and the book is essential reading for those with an interest in the continent's future.Related Link(s)
Download or read book Reality Check written by Roberta Gatti and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-04-11 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Middle East and North Africa economies face an uncertain recovery. The war in Ukraine presents significant challenges to the global economy and the MENA region. Inflationary pressures brought about by the pandemic are likely to be further exacerbated by the conflict. The potential for rising food prices is even higher, which is likely to hurt the wallets of the poor and vulnerable in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a shadow. As the latest variant sweeps over the region, countries grapple with a host of problems depending on initial conditions and policy priorities. The region, like the rest of the world, is not out of the woods yet. Vaccinations remain the effective path out of the pandemic, leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Testing helps curb the spread. During times of uncertainty, it is important to not be overconfident about the region’s growth prospects. Growth forecasts serve as a significant signpost for policymakers to chart a path forward. Over the last decade, growth forecasts in the MENA region have often been inaccurate and overly optimistic, which can lead to economic contractions down the road due to ebullient borrowing. There is considerable room for the region to improve its forecasts that are largely hindered by opaque data systems, growth volatility and conflict. The MENA region lags considerably in the timely production of credible statistics. A key finding of the report is that the best way to improve forecasters is to provide forecasters with as much good quality information as possible.
Book Synopsis What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42
Book Synopsis How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact? by : Mr.Marco Terrones
Download or read book How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact? written by Mr.Marco Terrones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database of over 200 business and 700 financial cycles in 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2007:4. Our results suggest that there are strong linkages between different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruption episodes, notably house price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices tend to be stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of developments in credit and housing markets for the real economy.
Book Synopsis Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts by : Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
Download or read book Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts written by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy’s degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts.
Book Synopsis Where Missing Data Hurts the Most by : Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Where Missing Data Hurts the Most written by Rabah Arezki and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-04-07 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA’s economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks—most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.
