How Much of Commodity Price Behavior Can a Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain?

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis How Much of Commodity Price Behavior Can a Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain? by : Hikaru Hanawa Peterson

Download or read book How Much of Commodity Price Behavior Can a Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain? written by Hikaru Hanawa Peterson and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Commodity Price Dynamics

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145520112X
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility? by : Mr.Shaun K. Roache

Download or read book What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility? written by Mr.Shaun K. Roache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year—may be more challenging as uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across different commodities, suggesting an important role for common factors. It also identifies a number of determinants of low frequency volatility, two of which—the variation in U.S. inflation and the U.S. dollar exchange rate—explain a relatively large part of the rise in volatility since the mid-1990s.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319282018
Total Pages : 620 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl

Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Agricultural Product Prices

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Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 0801471109
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Agricultural Product Prices by : William G. Tomek

Download or read book Agricultural Product Prices written by William G. Tomek and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-05-08 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published continuously since 1972, Agricultural Product Prices has become the standard textbook and reference work for students in agricultural and applied economics, buyers and sellers of commodities, and policymakers, clearly explaining conceptual and empirical models applicable to agricultural product markets. The new fifth edition uses up-to-date information and models to explain the behavior of agricultural product prices. Topics include price differences over market levels (marketing margins), price differences over space (regionally and internationally) and by quality attributes, and price variability with the passage of time (seasonal and cyclical variations, trends, and random behavior). William G. Tomek and Harry M. Kaiser review and adapt microeconomic principles to the characteristics of agricultural commodity markets and then apply these principles to the various dimensions of price behavior. They also provide an in-depth discussion of prices established for futures contracts and their relationship to cash (spot) market prices; cover the influential roles of price discovery institutions, such as auctions and negotiated contracts, and government policies regulating trade and farms; and discuss the specification, use, and evaluation of empirical models of agricultural prices, placing emphasis on the challenges of doing high-quality, useful analyses and interpreting results.

Risk Management in Commodity Markets

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470740817
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Management in Commodity Markets by : Helyette Geman

Download or read book Risk Management in Commodity Markets written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-01-22 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities represent today the fastest growing markets worldwide. Historically misunderstood, generally under- studied and under- valued, certainly under- represented in the literature, commodities are suddenly receiving the attention they deserve. Bringing together some of the best authors in the field, this book focuses on the risk management issues associated with both soft and hard commodities: energy, weather, agriculturals, metals and shipping. Taking the reader through every part of the commodities markets, the authors discuss the intricacies of modelling spot and forward prices, as well as the design of new Futures markets. The book also looks at the use of options and other derivative contract forms for hedging purposes, as well as supply management in commodity markets. It looks at the implications for climate policy and climate research and analyzes the various freight derivatives markets and products used to manage shipping and freight risk in a global commodity world. It is required reading for energy and mining companies, utilities’ practitioners, commodity and cash derivatives traders in investment banks, CTA’s and hedge funds

Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices

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Publisher : IOS Press
ISBN 13 : 1614990379
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (149 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices by : B.R. Munier

Download or read book Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices written by B.R. Munier and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.

Reviving the Competitive Storage Model

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455228060
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis Reviving the Competitive Storage Model by : Yanliang Miao

Download or read book Reviving the Competitive Storage Model written by Yanliang Miao and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We revive in this paper the empirical relevance of the competitive storage model by taking a holistic approach to food commodity prices. We augment the seminal Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1996) model by incorporating more comprehensive and realistic supply and demand factors: output and demand trends, shocks to the yield, and time-varying interest rates. While the computational burden increases exponentially, the augmented model succeeds in replicating all four key patterns of food commodity prices. Our simulation and comparative statics also show that (i) the long-run declining trend of food prices may come to a halt or even reverse due to the shifting balance between supply and demand; (ii) short-run price fluctuations are mainly attributable to sizeable, though low-probability, shocks to output such as inclement weather; and (iii) the impact of monetary policy, though small in normal times, is nonlinear and asymmetric, and can become large if the real rate passes a certain threshold.

Staff Paper

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 474 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Staff Paper by :

Download or read book Staff Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Commodity Price Behavior and Its Implication for Risk Management

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 570 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Behavior and Its Implication for Risk Management by : Hikaru Hanawa Peterson

Download or read book Commodity Price Behavior and Its Implication for Risk Management written by Hikaru Hanawa Peterson and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

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Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1351917099
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices by : Walter C. Labys

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Storage and Commodity Markets

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521326168
Total Pages : 522 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (213 download)

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Book Synopsis Storage and Commodity Markets by : Jeffrey C. Williams

Download or read book Storage and Commodity Markets written by Jeffrey C. Williams and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991-03-29 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the capability to store surplus commodities and the impact of stockpiles on prices and production.

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 544 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics by :

Download or read book Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inventory, Business Cycles and Monetary Transmission

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642468063
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)

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Book Synopsis Inventory, Business Cycles and Monetary Transmission by : Riccardo Fiorito

Download or read book Inventory, Business Cycles and Monetary Transmission written by Riccardo Fiorito and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inventory changes constitute in all countries a small fraction of the Gross National Product but also a major source or an indicator of cyclical fluctuations. In this volume both possible ways of propagation are investigated by examining in the first part what macroeconomists have learned and still have to learn about inventories in the light of statistical definitions and problems. In the second part, the role of monetary shocks in propagating business cycles is considered through liquidity effects and in relation to inventory adjustment. A possible linkage between inventory and labor market is shown. Finally, new evidence and theoretical insights are provided on the linear-quadratic inventory model and its ability to discriminate econometrically among competing firm behavior.

Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice

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Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
ISBN 13 : 1452908281
Total Pages : 335 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (529 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice by : Robert E. Lucas

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.

Storage and Commodity Price Behavior

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Storage and Commodity Price Behavior by : Cesar Luis Revoredo

Download or read book Storage and Commodity Price Behavior written by Cesar Luis Revoredo and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Progress in Economics Research

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Publisher : Nova Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781590333105
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (331 download)

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Book Synopsis Progress in Economics Research by : Albert Tavidze

Download or read book Progress in Economics Research written by Albert Tavidze and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2002 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Progress In Economics Research Volume II