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Housing Price Dynamics And The Valuation Of Mortgage Default Options
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Book Synopsis Housing Price Dynamics and the Valuation of Mortgage Default Options by : Chiong-long Kuo
Download or read book Housing Price Dynamics and the Valuation of Mortgage Default Options written by Chiong-long Kuo and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mortgage pricing literature typically assumes that house prices evolve according to a geometric Brownian motion; the literature then employs conventional arbitrage arguments to value mortgages and their imbedded default options. However, this is not a realistic approach to the modeling of the real estate market. In this paper, a method of polynomial approximation is proposed to value the mortgage default option. This methodology does not rely on arbitrage arguments. Rather than assuming the house priceto be a random walk process, I set up a more realistic house price model with three return components and then use actual transaction data in four cities to estimate the price process. I then apply the empirically estimated house price model to value the default option. I show that variation in the forecastable returns can produce significant variation in the mortgage default option price. The serial correlation of the market return is found to have strong impacts on the price of the default option in all four cities. The random walk model is not able to use the information of current market return and persistent idiosyncratic error for the valuation of the mortgage default option, and therefore may lead to mispricing of the option.
Book Synopsis Mortgage Default and Mortgage Valuation by : John Krainer
Download or read book Mortgage Default and Mortgage Valuation written by John Krainer and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors develop an equilibrium valuation model that incorporates optimal default to show how mortgage yields and lender recovery rates on defaulted mortgages depend on initial loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. The analysis treats both the frictionless case and the case in which borrowers and lenders incur deadweight costs upon default. The model is calibrated using data on California mortgages. Given reasonable parameter values, the model does a surprisingly good job fitting the risk premium in the data for high LTV mortgages. Thus, from an ex ante perspective, the authors do not find strong evidence of systematic underpricing of default risk in the run-up to the housing market crisis. Charts and tables.
Book Synopsis Mortgage Valuation Models by : Andrew Davidson
Download or read book Mortgage Valuation Models written by Andrew Davidson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2014-05-22 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are among the most complex of all financial instruments. Analysis of MBS requires blending empirical analysis of borrower behavior with the mathematical modeling of interest rates and home prices. Over the past 25 years, Andrew Davidson and Alexander Levin have been at the leading edge of MBS valuation and risk analysis. Mortgage Valuation Models: Embedded Options, Risk, and Uncertainty contains a detailed description of the sophisticated theories and advanced methods that the authors employ in real-world analyses of mortgage-backed securities. Issues such as complexity, borrower options, uncertainty, and model risk play a central role in the authors' approach to the valuation of MBS. The coverage spans the range of mortgage products from loans and TBA (to-be-announced) pass-through securities to subordinate tranches of subprime-mortgage securitizations. With reference to the classical CAPM and APT, the book advocates extending the concept of risk-neutrality to modeling home prices and borrower options, well beyond interest rates. It describes valuation methods for both agency and non-agency MBS including pricing new loans; approaches to prudent risk measurement, ranking, and decomposition; and methods for modeling prepayments and defaults of borrowers. The authors also reveal quantitative causes of the 2007-09 financial crisis and provide insight into the future of the U.S. housing finance system and mortgage modeling as this field continues to evolve. This book will serve as a foundation for the future development of models for mortgage-backed securities.
Book Synopsis Residential Mortgage Default by : Wayne R. Archer
Download or read book Residential Mortgage Default written by Wayne R. Archer and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House price volatility; lender and borrower perception of price trends, loan and property features; and the borrower's put option are integrated in a model of residential mortgage default. These dimensions of the default problem have, to our knowledge, not previously been considered altogether within the same investigation framework. We rely on a sample of individual mortgage loans for twenty counties in Florida, over the period 2001 through 2008, third quarter, with housing price performance obtained from repeat sales analysis of individual transactions. The results from the analysis strongly confirm the significance of the borrower's put as an operative factor in default. At the same time, the results provide convincing evidence that the experience in Florida is in part by lenders and purchasers exhibiting euphoric behavior such that in markets with higher price appreciation there is a willingness to accept recent prior performance as an indicator of future risk. This connection illustrates a familiar moral hazard in the housing market due to the limited information about future prices.
Download or read book Journal of Housing Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mortgage Defaults by : Juan Carlos Hatchondo
Download or read book Mortgage Defaults written by Juan Carlos Hatchondo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper incorporates house price risk and mortgages into a standard incomplete market (SIM) model. The model is calibrated to match U.S. data and accounts for non-targeted features of the data such as the distribution of down payments, the life-cycle profile of home ownership, and the mortgage default rate. The average coefficients that measure the agents' ability to self-insure against income shocks are similar to those of a SIM model without housing but housing increases the values of these coefficients for younger agents. The response of consumption to house price shocks is minimal. The introduction of minimum down payments or income garnishment benefits a majority of the population.
Book Synopsis Assessing House Prices with Prudential and Valuation Measures by : Michal Andrle
Download or read book Assessing House Prices with Prudential and Valuation Measures written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-18 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we provide tools for assessing the house prices and housing valuation. We develop two approaches: (i) borrowing capacity approach, and (ii) intrinsic value approach. The borrowing capacity of households, together with their down payment, implies how much housing they can attain. In the intrinsic value approach, property value is viewed as a discounted present value of adjusted net rental income. Our approach does not involve a complex econometric model and only widely available data are used. The proposed indicators can guide households, financial markets and macroprudential authorities in their understanding of house prices development. To illustrate the concepts, we analyze the housing prices in the Czech Republic and assess the degree of market over-and undervaluation.
Book Synopsis Housing Prices and the (in)stability of Mortgage Prepayment Models by : Joe P. Mattey
Download or read book Housing Prices and the (in)stability of Mortgage Prepayment Models written by Joe P. Mattey and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mortgage Curtailment and Its Roles in Mortgage Pricing by : Qiang Fu
Download or read book Mortgage Curtailment and Its Roles in Mortgage Pricing written by Qiang Fu and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Economics of the Modernisation of Direct Real Estate and the National Estate - a Singapore Perspective by : Kim Hin David HO
Download or read book The Economics of the Modernisation of Direct Real Estate and the National Estate - a Singapore Perspective written by Kim Hin David HO and published by Partridge Publishing Singapore. This book was released on 2022-05-11 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics of The Modernisation of Direct Real Estate and The National Estate - A Singapore Perspective Chapter 1 takes a close look the vector auto regression (VAR) model, offering a dynamic system of solely direct real estate variables, for international direct real estate investors and policy makers, to enable their decision-making. Chapter 2 examines the association of residential price and aggregate consumption. A cross-spectra analysis is helps to so validate, because of its model-free characteristics Chapter 3 is concerned with the underlying housing market dynamics and housing price time-series variation, via the Singapore (SG) generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM). Chapter 4 is concerned with the in-depth market analysis and empirical analysis of the structural behavior of the important SG private housing sector. Chapter 5 acknowledges that an in-depth sector analysis and an empirical analysis are imperative to better understand the structural behavior of the SG office sector. Chapter 6 is concerned with the Main Upgrading Programme (MUP), a highly targeted subsidized Housing Development Board (HDB) policy, since the 1990s. Chapter 7 recognizes the ‘National Estate’, denoting SG’s built environment, due to physical planning, integrated urban design, and the direct influence of the SG government in providing physical infrastructure via government ministries, statutory boards and public authorities. Chapter 8 offers the book’s conclusion.
Book Synopsis Land Management & Economics by : Kim Hin Ho
Download or read book Land Management & Economics written by Kim Hin Ho and published by Partridge Publishing Singapore. This book was released on 2020-07-21 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is concerned with a unique, overall land policy optimization model, under active government policy, resulting in the sustainable effectiveness and efficiency of land policy. Such a model distinguishes it from the highly specific urban-planning land use optimization model, meant for optimizing land use specification, strategic land uses, land use restrictions and control, like zoning. Policy input is concerned with a hierarchical and structural definition of policy while ‘Additionality’ looks at land-policy output (outcome) variables, impacting broader land policy efficiency and effectiveness goals, their associated output indicators and the interaction with the macroeconomy. Long run urban policy-macroeconomy interaction is modeled in a contemporaneous cointegration model estimation, involving different sectors of the economy. The model looks at the equilibrium and optimal land-using economic activities. A dynamic interaction of land policy outcomes and their economic implications is discussed via cointegration tests and modelling. This book develops a rigorous system-dynamics-based computable general equilibrium model for direct real estate market uncertainty i.e. the frequent mismatch between office demand and supply under the impact of limited land constraint, the domestic common stock market, the macro economy and macroeconomic policy. Such dynamic interaction is structured under the demand-side and supply-side aspects. The book looks at the binomial option-pricing model by Cox, Ross and Rubinstein, to model the risk-neutral process for short term interest rates, common stock prices and Housing & Development Board (HDB) resale flat prices. Singapore’s Main Upgrading Program (MUP) is a heavily subsidized and highly targeted. Since 1992, the HDB has budgeted some S$3 billion to finance the MUP policy. A positive impact is the asset value enhancement of the HDB flats within the upgraded precincts. MUP subsidies vary significantly with the corresponding option premium. A 3-Room HDB flat owner is more inclined to opt for upgrading while the option premium is deemed to be less attractive for upgrading by the 4-Room HDB flat owner. Residents’ satisfaction level with town council (TC) services are examined, under different political parties. The concern is to ascertain a housing finance model, which analyzes the affordability of household borrowers for purchasing resale public housing. With Central Provident funds (CPF) usage, total interest paid over the loan life is significantly reduced. CPF as a financial buffer significantly reduce default risks for lender and household borrower.
Book Synopsis Foreclosures and House Price Dynamics by : Satyajit Chatterjee
Download or read book Foreclosures and House Price Dynamics written by Satyajit Chatterjee and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors construct a quantitative equilibrium model of the housing market in which an unanticipated increase in the supply of housing triggers default mortgages via its effect on house prices. The decline in house prices creates an incentive to increase the consumption of housing space, but leverage makes it costly for homeowners to sell their homes and buy bigger ones (they must absorb large capital losses). Instead, leveraged households find it advantageous to default and rent housing space. Since renters demand less housing space than homeowners, foreclosures are a negative force affecting house prices. The authors explore the possible effects of the government's foreclosure prevention policy in their model. They find that the policy can temporarily reduce foreclosures and shore up house prices.
Book Synopsis Housing the Nation - a Singapore Policy Story by : Kim Hin / David Ho
Download or read book Housing the Nation - a Singapore Policy Story written by Kim Hin / David Ho and published by Partridge Publishing Singapore. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chapter 1 takes a close look at a unique and state-of-the-art dynamic, structural public housing macroeconomic model (DSPHM), based on an open economy for several key macroeconomic variables, actual and expected, as well as the demand for new HDB flats sold. This Chapter readily adopts the DSPHM for simulating two scenarios, namely a “no change” first scenario and a public housing “deregulation” second scenario. Chapter 2 explores the relationship between several economic factors and the demand for public housing in Singapore and Hong Kong, deploying the innovative and versatile system dynamics model, to shed better understanding on the policy implications of assisted ownership housing. The Chapter assesses the demand for new flats of the Singapore and Hong Kong economies, under certain macroeconomic policy changes, suitable for their unique situations. Chapter 3 is concerned with the underlying structural relationships that affect Singapore’s public housing policy to potentially privatize the HDB concessionary-rate mortgages for HDB homebuyers. Such a potential privatization infuses and sustains price competitiveness among the domestic private banks in Singapore, and lead to improved efficiency among them as well as the Singapore economy at large. Chapter 4 is concerned with the binomial option-pricing model, proposed by Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979), which is appropriate to represent the movement of the underlying HDB resale flat prices, subject to private market forces in HDB’s large scale public housing secondary resale market. The HDB Main Upgrading Program (MUP) is a heavily subsidized and highly targeted public housing policy. Since its inception in 1992, the HDB has budgeted some S$3 billion to finance the MUP policy. Chapter 5 recognizes housing affordability to be always an issue of concern to many Singaporean homebuyers because shelter forms one of the basic life necessities. The corresponding private residential market in Singapore offers quality and premium private residential accommodation for homebuyers, who prefer the private residential market. The appropriate affordability model is a multi-factor housing affordability index (HAI) model, which considers the ability to provide down payment and to service the mortgage taken up. Lastly, Chapter 6 offers the book’s conclusion.
Book Synopsis Local Housing Market Cycle and Loss Given Default by : Yanan Zhang
Download or read book Local Housing Market Cycle and Loss Given Default written by Yanan Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the impact of housing market cycles on loss given default (LGD). Previous studies have shown that the current loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) is the most important determinant of LGD. This paper establishes another linkage which is between the house price cycles before the time of mortgage origination and LGD. The empirical analysis is based on a large loan-level sub-prime residential mortgage loss dataset from 1998 to 2009. Results show that house price history has a long memory in explaining LGD. Its explanatory power far exceeds the original LTV and other loan characteristics. This paper offers a countercyclical view of LGD risk. The model can be combined with a default probability model to serve as a regulatory prudential tool. Such a tool provides a solution to the inherent procyclical bias in BASEL II capital requirements, and can contribute to the safety and soundness of banking institutions.
Book Synopsis Optimal Put Exercise by : Brent W. Ambrose
Download or read book Optimal Put Exercise written by Brent W. Ambrose and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Implicit in option-pricing models of mortgage valuation are threshold levels of put-option value that must be crossed to induce borrower default. There has been little research into what these threshold values are that come out of pricing models, or how they compare to exercised option values seen in empirical data. This study decomposes boundary conditions for optimal default exercise to look at the economic dynamics that should lead to optimal default timing. Empirical data on FHA insured mortgage foreclosures is then examined to discern the predictive influence of optimal-option-valuation-and-exercise variables on observed default timing and values. Interesting results include a new understanding of how to measure and use property equity variables during economic downturns, house price index ranges over which default is exercised for various classes of borrowers, and implied differences in appreciation rates between market price indices and foreclosed properties.
Book Synopsis Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices by : Karl E. Case
Download or read book Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices written by Karl E. Case and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence is shown, using US foreclosure data by state 1975-93, that periods of high default rates on home mortgages strongly tend to follow real estate price declines or interruptions in real estate price increase. The relation between price decline and foreclosure rates is modelled using a distributed lag. Using this model, holders of residential mortgage portfolios could hedge some of the risk of default by taking positions in futures or options markets for residential real estate prices, were such markets to be established
Book Synopsis Mortgage Pricing by : Patric H. Hendershott
Download or read book Mortgage Pricing written by Patric H. Hendershott and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
