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Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization
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Book Synopsis Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? by : Eric Monnet
Download or read book Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? written by Eric Monnet and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
Book Synopsis Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? by : Eric Monnet
Download or read book Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? written by Eric Monnet and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-04 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Book Synopsis How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Book Synopsis Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring by : Mr.Marco Terrones
Download or read book Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring written by Mr.Marco Terrones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.
Book Synopsis Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization by : Mr.Romain A Duval
Download or read book Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Book Synopsis Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization? by : Michael Artis
Download or read book Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization? written by Michael Artis and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? by : Eric Monnet
Download or read book Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization? written by Eric Monnet and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
Book Synopsis Global Business Cycles by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Book Synopsis One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles by : Eric Monnet
Download or read book One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles written by Eric Monnet and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks. But their impact is modest for most countries. The global financial cycle is also much weaker when looking at credit rather than asset prices. We also challenge the view that syncronization has increased over time. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), this not true for quantities (output and credit). The world business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950–1972) as during the Globalization period (1984-2006). For most countries, the way their output co-moves with the rest of the world has changed little over the last 70 years. We discuss the reasons behind these new findings and their policy implications for small open economies.
Book Synopsis International business cycle synchronization in historical perspective by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book International business cycle synchronization in historical perspective written by Michael D. Bordo and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the trend toward synchronization. Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.
Book Synopsis Have National Business Cycles Become More Syncronized? by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book Have National Business Cycles Become More Syncronized? written by Michael D. Bordo and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive"--NBER website
Book Synopsis International Business Cycle Synchronization Since the 1870s by : Nikolaos Antonakakis
Download or read book International Business Cycle Synchronization Since the 1870s written by Nikolaos Antonakakis and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, we examine the issue of business cycle synchronization from a historical perspective in 27 developed and developing countries. Based on a novel complex network approach, the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS), our results reveal heterogeneous patterns of international business cycle synchronization during fundamental globalization periods since the 1870s. In particular, the proposed methodology reveals that worldwide business cycles de-coupled during the Gold Standard, though they were synchronized during the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods era was associated with a lower degree of synchronization as compared to that during the Great Depression, while worldwide business cycle synchronization increased to unprecedented levels during the latest period of floating exchange rates and the Great Recession.
Book Synopsis How does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles?. by : Ayhan ; Prasad Kose (Eswar S. ; Terrones, Marco E.)
Download or read book How does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles?. written by Ayhan ; Prasad Kose (Eswar S. ; Terrones, Marco E.) and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? by : International Monetary Fund. IMF
Download or read book How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles? written by International Monetary Fund. IMF and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized? by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized? written by Michael D. Bordo and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we document evidence on the synchronization of business cycles across 16 countries over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find using three different methodologies that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then considered a number of possible explanations for the observed pattern of increased synchronization. We first ascertained the role of shocks demarcated into country-specific (idiosyncratic) and global (common). Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks are the dominant influence across all regimes. The increasing importance of global shocks we posit reflects the forces of globalization, especially the integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. Our evidence shows a modest role for increasing bilateral trade in explaining synchronization, with stronger evidence for regional integration in Europe and North America but the evidence for the role of financial integration proxied by the removal of capital controls is inconclusive.
Download or read book Globalisation written by Joachim Scheide and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the integration of goods, capital and financial markets has progressed on a global scale. The 66th annual meeting of the Association of German Economics Research Institutes (ARGE) focused on the question of national macroeconomic policies in an environment of increasingly interdependent business cycles.In the first paper of the volume, Koll gives a general introduction to the history of business cycles co-movement. Koll also highlights the responsibility of national governments as global players.The first section deals with the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Flaig, Sturm and Woitek conclude that, while the oil shocks of the 70s induced strong co-movements in business cycles, German unification led to a divergence of national cycles. The paper by Fichtner concentrates not only on business cycle synchronization over time but introduces an analysis on the transmission mechanisms at work. Fichtner finds that common shocks and technology spillovers account for most of the co-movement in output.The second section explains some of the individual transmission mechanisms in greater detail. Horn examines how business confidence carries over from one country to another and finds evidence that positive expectations in the US strengthen German confidence and that this relationship has become stronger over time. Schröder quantifies the role of the transmission of stock market investors' confidence in the relationship between US and German GDP. He distinguishes between the pure investor expectation effect and the direct influence of stock markets on real GDP and finds a direct causal impact.The third section concentrates on economic policy and its implications. Kuhn analyzes the transmission of monetary policy shocks and finds the transmission mechanism via interest rate co-movements to be more important than that via trade and the exchange rate mechanism. Middendorf and Radmacher-Nottelmann explore the importance of multinationals in the transmission of economic business cycles. Macro evidence suggests a synchronization of investment behavior. Micro evidence, however, reveals only a weak impact of multinationals on business cycle synchronization.This AEQ supplement should be essential reading for anyone, whether academic or practitioner, with an interest in future macroeconomic policy options in an increasingly integrated economic environment.
