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Government Debt And Long Term Interest Rates
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Book Synopsis Government Debt and Long-term Interest Rates by : Noriaki Kinoshita
Download or read book Government Debt and Long-term Interest Rates written by Noriaki Kinoshita and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between government debt and long-term interest rates. A dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates debt nonneutrality is specified and solved, and numerical simulations using the model are undertaken. In addition, empirical evidence using panel data for 19 industrial countries is examined. The estimation provides some evidence supporting the theoretical predictions: the paper finds that the simulated and estimated interest rate effects of government debt tend to be small. However, an increase in government consumption and debt leads to a considerably larger effect. The paper also argues that, although the interest rate effects of pure crowding out may be limited, the economic impact of accumulating government debt cannot be ignored.
Book Synopsis The Congress Should Consider Repealing the 4-1/4 Percent Interest Rate Limitation on Long-term Public Debt, Department of the Treasury by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book The Congress Should Consider Repealing the 4-1/4 Percent Interest Rate Limitation on Long-term Public Debt, Department of the Treasury written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 by : National Bureau of Economic Research
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Papers by leading researchers consider such questions as the effect of government debt on interest rates; technology shocks, demand shocks, and output volatility; and procyclical macroeconomic policies in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Official Demand for U.S. Debt by : Iryna Kaminska
Download or read book Official Demand for U.S. Debt written by Iryna Kaminska and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-18 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By constructing and estimating a structural arbitrage-free model of demand pressures on US real rates, we find that recent purchases of US government debt securities by the Fed and foreign officials have significantly affected the level and the dynamics of US real rates. In particular, by 2008, foreign purchases of US Treasuries are estimated to have had cumulatively reduced long term real yields by around 80 basis points. The subsequent total impact of Fed purchases in 2008-2012 has been even larger: the quantitative easing (QE) has depressed real 10-year yields by around 140 basis points. Our findings also reveal that the Fed policy interventions and foreign official purchases affect longer term real bonds mostly through a reduction in the bond premium.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Ceiling and Interest Rate Ceiling on Bonds by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Ways and Means
Download or read book Public Debt Ceiling and Interest Rate Ceiling on Bonds written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Ways and Means and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Considers administration proposals to increase public debt ceiling and to eliminate interest rate ceiling on savings and Treasury bonds.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields by : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Download or read book Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.
Book Synopsis The Liquidation of Government Debt by : Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Download or read book The Liquidation of Government Debt written by Ms.Carmen Reinhart and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and the Management of the Public Debt by : United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Management of the Public Debt written by United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report and published by . This book was released on 1952 with total page 728 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service by : Silvia Ardagna
Download or read book Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service written by Silvia Ardagna and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.
Book Synopsis Changing Conditions in the Market for State and Local Government Debt by : John E. Petersen
Download or read book Changing Conditions in the Market for State and Local Government Debt written by John E. Petersen and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Public Debt Long-range Plan by : United States. Bureau of the Public Debt
Download or read book Public Debt Long-range Plan written by United States. Bureau of the Public Debt and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Public Debt and Growth by : Jaejoon Woo
Download or read book Public Debt and Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Book Synopsis Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel by : Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba
Download or read book Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel written by Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses.
Book Synopsis Estimating Outlays for the Interest on the Public Debt by : United States. Congressional Budget Office
Download or read book Estimating Outlays for the Interest on the Public Debt written by United States. Congressional Budget Office and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies by : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Download or read book Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe haven” flows.
Book Synopsis How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates? by : Mr.Sohrab Rafiq
Download or read book How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates? written by Mr.Sohrab Rafiq and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a dataset on private-sector risk aversion as well as expectations of long-run growth and debt to explain trends in implied forward rates on government bonds in the G-7 countries. The results show, consistent with the literature, that a one-percent rise in the long-run projected debt-to-GDP ratio causes an increase in bond yields of a relatively modest 1-to-6 basis points. Shocks to growth expectations and risk aversion have been comparatively more successful in explaining the behavior of long-term rates. The findings imply that growth policies rather than long-run projections of fiscal outcomes may be more important in helping influence long-term borrowing costs.
