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Global Shocks And Their Impacton Low Income Countries
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Book Synopsis Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries by : Hans Weisfeld
Download or read book Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries written by Hans Weisfeld and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.
Book Synopsis Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? by : Claudio E. Raddatz
Download or read book Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? written by Claudio E. Raddatz and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.
Book Synopsis Globalization and Poverty by : Ann Harrison
Download or read book Globalization and Poverty written by Ann Harrison and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 675 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, the percentage of the world’s population living on less than a dollar a day has been cut in half. How much of that improvement is because of—or in spite of—globalization? While anti-globalization activists mount loud critiques and the media report breathlessly on globalization’s perils and promises, economists have largely remained silent, in part because of an entrenched institutional divide between those who study poverty and those who study trade and finance. Globalization and Poverty bridges that gap, bringing together experts on both international trade and poverty to provide a detailed view of the effects of globalization on the poor in developing nations, answering such questions as: Do lower import tariffs improve the lives of the poor? Has increased financial integration led to more or less poverty? How have the poor fared during various currency crises? Does food aid hurt or help the poor? Poverty, the contributors show here, has been used as a popular and convenient catchphrase by parties on both sides of the globalization debate to further their respective arguments. Globalization and Poverty provides the more nuanced understanding necessary to move that debate beyond the slogans.
Book Synopsis Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Download or read book Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Global Productivity by : Alistair Dieppe
Download or read book Global Productivity written by Alistair Dieppe and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
Book Synopsis The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? by : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
Download or read book The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? written by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.
Book Synopsis Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book Global Shocks and the New Global and Regional Financial Architecture written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian economies continue to be subject to new shocks: US monetary policy tightening, the adoption of negative-interest-rate policies by central banks all over the world, the slowdown of the People's Republic of China, and the sharp drop in oil and other commodity prices. All these highlight the vulnerability of the region to volatile trade and capital flows even as the global and Asian regional financial architecture evolves. This volume analyzes the vulnerabilities of Asian economies to external economic and financial shocks and assesses the performance of Asian regional institutions in financial surveillance and cooperation. It also evaluates ongoing reforms of the global financial architecture, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Financial Stability Board, and reviews the experience of the "Troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, and the IMF) in managing the European sovereign debt and banking crisis. Based on these, the book develops valuable recommendations to strengthen the Asian regional financial architecture and improve cooperation with global multilateral institutions.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis by : Mr.Alfredo Baldini
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis written by Mr.Alfredo Baldini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. We characterize monetary policy as "stop and go": initially tight, subsequently loose. Simulations of the model broadly match the path of the economy during this period. We find that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. We study the factors driving the "stop" part of policy and derive policy implications for central banks in low-income countries.
Book Synopsis Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises by : Mr.Paolo Dudine
Download or read book Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises written by Mr.Paolo Dudine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-16 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Low-income countries were hit especially hard by sharp increases in world food and fuel prices in 2007-08 and the global financial crisis that followed. In response, the International Monetary Fund scaled up its financial assistance to low-income countries and revamped its concessional lending facilities to make them more flexible in meeting the diverse needs of these countries. Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises assesses empirically the outcome of the IMF response, and provides insight into how IMF-supported programs in low-income countries have been adapted to the changing economic circumstances in these countries. The authors report that these programs have provided expanded policy space in the face of the global price shocks and financial crisis.
Book Synopsis The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country by : Romain Houssa
Download or read book The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country written by Romain Houssa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.
Book Synopsis The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality by : Davide Furceri
Download or read book The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the effect of monetary policy shocks on income inequality. Using a measure of unanticipated changes in policy rates for a panel of 32 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 1990-2013, the paper finds that contractionary (expansionary) monetary actions increase (reduce) income inequality. The effect, however, varies over time, depending on the type of the shocks (tightening versus expansionary monetary policy) and the state of the business cycle, and across countries depending on the share of labor income and redistribution policies. In particular, we find that the effect is larger for positive monetary policy shocks, especially during expansions. Looking across countries, we find that the effect is larger in countries with higher labor share of income and smaller redistribution policies. Finally, while an unexpected increase in policy rates increases inequality, changes in policy rates driven by an increase in growth are associated with lower inequality.
Book Synopsis The Adaptive Economy by : Tony Killick
Download or read book The Adaptive Economy written by Tony Killick and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1993-01-01 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the relationship between economic adaptation and long-run development, with particluar emphasis on small, low- income economies. It also examines what makes for flexibility within an economy and how policy can affect an economy's ability to adapt to conditions over which it has no control. The premise is that all economies need to adapt to changing circumstances in order to achieve a reasonable pace of development. The author explains the forces to which economies need to respond, the attributes that increase an economy's capacity to adjust, the difficulties of adjustment, and what policy can do to facilitate adjustment. The author illustrates structure and flexibility within an economy and offers a guide to forming policy. Specific policy options are examined, among them using exchange rate fluctuations. The roles of government and markets in setting adjustment policies for industry, agriculture, and finance are explored. The study draws upon a wide range of material and avoids a narrowly economic point of view. The book is intended for use by economists working for or advising government agencies and for teachers and students of development economics. It includes an extensive reference list.
Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks written by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-10 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Book Synopsis Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation by : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
Download or read book Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation written by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-16 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical evidence and simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model reveal that good policies can help countries cope with negative weather shocks to some extent. However, none of the adaptive policies we consider can fully eliminate the large aggregate output losses that countries with hot climates experience due to rising temperatures. Only curbing greenhouse gas emissions—which would mitigate further global warming—could limit the adverse macroeconomic consequences of weather shocks in a long-lasting way.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Adaptive Social Protection by : Thomas Bowen
Download or read book Adaptive Social Protection written by Thomas Bowen and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptive social protection (ASP) helps to build the resilience of poor and vulnerable households to the impacts of large, covariate shocks, such as natural disasters, economic crises, pandemics, conflict, and forced displacement. Through the provision of transfers and services directly to these households, ASP supports their capacity to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to the shocks they face—before, during, and after these shocks occur. Over the long term, by supporting these three capacities, ASP can provide a pathway to a more resilient state for households that may otherwise lack the resources to move out of chronically vulnerable situations. Adaptive Social Protection: Building Resilience to Shocks outlines an organizing framework for the design and implementation of ASP, providing insights into the ways in which social protection systems can be made more capable of building household resilience. By way of its four building blocks—programs, information, finance, and institutional arrangements and partnerships—the framework highlights both the elements of existing social protection systems that are the cornerstones for building household resilience, as well as the additional investments that are central to enhancing their ability to generate these outcomes. In this report, the ASP framework and its building blocks have been elaborated primarily in relation to natural disasters and associated climate change. Nevertheless, many of the priorities identified within each building block are also pertinent to the design and implementation of ASP across other types of shocks, providing a foundation for a structured approach to the advancement of this rapidly evolving and complex agenda.
Book Synopsis Learning from SARS by : Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Learning from SARS written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2004-04-26 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002 and 2003 challenged the global public health community to confront a novel epidemic that spread rapidly from its origins in southern China until it had reached more than 25 other countries within a matter of months. In addition to the number of patients infected with the SARS virus, the disease had profound economic and political repercussions in many of the affected regions. Recent reports of isolated new SARS cases and a fear that the disease could reemerge and spread have put public health officials on high alert for any indications of possible new outbreaks. This report examines the response to SARS by public health systems in individual countries, the biology of the SARS coronavirus and related coronaviruses in animals, the economic and political fallout of the SARS epidemic, quarantine law and other public health measures that apply to combating infectious diseases, and the role of international organizations and scientific cooperation in halting the spread of SARS. The report provides an illuminating survey of findings from the epidemic, along with an assessment of what might be needed in order to contain any future outbreaks of SARS or other emerging infections.
