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Gdp Growth Potential Output And Output Gaps In Mexico
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Book Synopsis GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico by : Mr.Ebrima Faal
Download or read book GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico written by Mr.Ebrima Faal and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2005-05-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.
Book Synopsis Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy by : Francesco Grigoli
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Book Synopsis GDP Growth, Potential Output and Output Gaps in Mexiko by : Ebrima Faal
Download or read book GDP Growth, Potential Output and Output Gaps in Mexiko written by Ebrima Faal and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mexico by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Mexico written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the global crisis and potential growth in Mexico. The paper uses two methodologies to assess to what extent the global crisis is likely to weigh on Mexico’s growth potential. The first approach is sectoral, examining the historical relationship between financial stress and growth in manufacturing industries. The second approach uses a growth-accounting framework to take a closer look at likely developments in the factors that drive potential growth. The paper also examines spending patterns and risks of expenditures volatility from unanticipated shocks in macroeconomic variables under two alternative fiscal rules.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475540159 Total Pages :49 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Mexico by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Mexico written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-26 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper analyzes reforms to Mexico’s fiscal framework. Mexico’s resilient economic performance would be consolidated by increasing fiscal policy buffers and preparing for challenges associated with long-term budget pressures. In the short term, reducing public debt levels can create space to implement countercyclical fiscal policies and reduce exposure to high financing and hedging costs, which would protect Mexico’s credit rating at times of distress. The paper highlights that recent fiscal reform is designed with these policy objectives in mind, to build on the strengths of the previous fiscal framework.
Download or read book Mexico written by and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2001-10-25 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the Mexican economy, its output fluctuations, and analyzes the country's external competitiveness in the context of medium-term external current account sustainability. The study also presents different measures of the fiscal deficit, including the traditional budget balance, and reviews measures on the fiscal stance and fiscal impulse. It examines the evolving relationship between inflation and the exchange rate, using fixed and time-varying coefficient models. The paper describes the methodology, provides the rationale for estimating time-varying parameter models, and presents the estimation results.
Book Synopsis GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico by : Ebrima Faal
Download or read book GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico written by Ebrima Faal and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :151354408X Total Pages :84 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Mexico by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Mexico written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-17 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper analyzes fiscal multipliers in Mexico. Estimates of fiscal multipliers––obtained from state-level spending––fall within 0.6–0.7 after accounting for dynamic effects. However, the size of multipliers varies with the output gap. The planned fiscal consolidation—under the estimated multipliers—is projected to subtract on average 0.5 percentage points from growth over 2015–20. However, there are offsetting effects. The positive growth impulse of lower costs on manufactured goods production is estimated to reach 0.5 percentage point in 2015 and 2016, largely offsetting the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth in the near term.
Book Synopsis The Great Recession and Developing Countries by : Mustapha K. Nabli
Download or read book The Great Recession and Developing Countries written by Mustapha K. Nabli and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-12-03 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides one of the most detailed and comprehensive reviews of the growth experience of a group of low and middle income countries before and during the global crisis. It then explores their growth prospects after the recovery and how they may be shaped by the new global economic environment.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498335985 Total Pages :48 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Guatemala by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Guatemala written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-09-18 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues note estimates Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using the production function approach, univariate statistical filters, and multivariate models based on the Kalman filter method. In the production function approach, potential output is modeled as a function of potential labor and capital inputs, and total factor productivity (TFP). Results are robust to different methodologies and suggest that its potential output growth is about 3.5 percent and the output gap is on average closed. Structural breaks in potential output were identified in 1994, 2003, and 2008, which coincide to the Mexican tequila crisis, the free trade agreement with the US, and the financial crisis. Going forward, it is critical to undertake structural reforms to strengthen capital, labor, and TFP growth in order to accelerate potential growth. Univariate statistical methods provide a simple measure of potential output. The production function approach also indicates that the absence of productivity growth is a significant barrier to potential output growth.
Book Synopsis Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? by : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484327608 Total Pages :76 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Mexico by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Mexico written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the Mexican economy’s resilience in the face of a complex external environment. Output has continued to grow at a moderate pace while inflation has temporarily risen above the central bank’s target. The flexible exchange rate is playing a key role in helping the economy adjust to external shocks. The economy is projected to grow by 2.1 percent in 2017. Private consumption remains the main driver of activity, supported by manufacturing exports, while investment has remained weak amid uncertainty about Mexico’s future trade relationship with the United States. Growth is expected to slow slightly in 2018 before picking up speed as the uncertainty is resolved.
Book Synopsis Employment, Structural Adjustment and Sustainable Growth in Mexico by : Jaime Ros
Download or read book Employment, Structural Adjustment and Sustainable Growth in Mexico written by Jaime Ros and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the employment and output situation in Mexico from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Develops a model to determine the growth rate required to address employment problems and presents estimates for the current and medium term (1995-2010) values of this rate. Assesses the sustainability of growth after the recent economic crisis and devaluation.
Book Synopsis Mexico's Recent Economic Growth by :
Download or read book Mexico's Recent Economic Growth written by and published by University of Texas Press. This book was released on 2014-11-11 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Mexican economy underwent a process of growth and transformation in the twentieth century, which was confirmed by the indexes and figures that economists use to chart the rate of growth, even allowing for possible inaccuracies in these figures. This volume of six essays makes readily available to English-speaking readers a selection of significant contributions by outstanding Mexican economists dealing with the mid-twentieth-century growth of the Mexican economy. Enrique Pérez López provides an overview of the development of the gross national product in the economy and the structural changes that were imperative if basic social goals were to be implemented and the optimal adjustments to changing world conditions effected. Ernesto Fernández Hurtado discusses the process of accommodation and cooperation between the public and the private sectors that has contributed significantly to economic growth, stressing particularly the role of agriculture. Mario Ramón Beteta describes central bank policy and the functioning of the Central Bank, showing how control over credit and the banking system assures stability and accelerating growth through its credit rationing. Alfredo Navarrete R. traces the sources of domestic savings that have provided 90 percent of the capital employed in the economy since the Revolution, and Ifigenia M. de Navarrete demonstrates that rapid economic growth has not resulted in a more equitable distribution of income. Victor Urquidi stresses the balanced growth, achieved by allocating public capital formation to basic infrastructure, that has helped develop agriculture as well as industry, and indicates the nature of the structural change that must occur if the economy is to expand rapidly. In his introduction Tom E. Davis compares growth in Mexico with developments during the same period in Chile and Argentina. The country reached its midcentury standard of living after fifty years of drastic social and political changes under a constitution that altered the system and the concept of private property and the role of the state. These new concepts brought about changes in the structure of production and social relationships, together with a rise to new cultural, technical, and moral levels. These changes, in turn, placed Mexico in a new position with new problems. A question that must be answered is whether the economic goals of the future require a reappraisal of social relationships and of the ways of administering and utilizing the country’s resources and potential productivity.
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic by : Mr.Christian A Johnson
Download or read book Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic written by Mr.Christian A Johnson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4 percent while output gap volatility is about 1.9 percent; ii) The highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eigth years.
Book Synopsis Under-Rewarded Efforts by : Santiago Levy Algazi
Download or read book Under-Rewarded Efforts written by Santiago Levy Algazi and published by Inter-American Development Bank. This book was released on 2018-07-11 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why has an economy that has done so many things right failed to grow fast? Under-Rewarded Efforts traces Mexico’s disappointing growth to flawed microeconomic policies that have suppressed productivity growth and nullified the expected benefits of the country’s reform efforts. Fast growth will not occur doing more of the same or focusing on issues that may be key bottlenecks to productivity growth elsewhere, but not in Mexico. It will only result from inclusive institutions that effectively protect workers against risks, redistribute towards those in need, and simultaneously align entrepreneurs’ and workers’ incentives to raise productivity.
