Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401715904
Total Pages : 487 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications by : Bernt P. Stigum

Download or read book Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications written by Bernt P. Stigum and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.

Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400946163
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory by : L. Daboni

Download or read book Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory written by L. Daboni and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Second International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory was held in Venice, June 1984. This volume presents some of the papers delivered at FUR-84. (The First International Conference, FUR-82, was held in Oslo and some of the papers presented on that occasion were published by Reidel in the volume Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, edited by Bernt P. Stigum and Fred Wenst~p). The theory of choice under uncertainty involves a vast range of controversial issues in many fields like economics, philosophy, psychology, mathematics and statistics. The idea of discussing these problems in international conferences has been successful: two conferences have been held and others will follow. The climate of the debate has changed in the meantime, partly as a result of these conferences. It is no more only a question of attacking or defending the neo-Bernoullian assumptions, but also of proposing wider generalizations and including new elements in the analysis of the decision process. For instance Amartya Sen - comparing the two current notions of rationality, internal consistency and self-interest pursuit introduces the concept of reasoning and considers the irrationality which may result from the failure of a positive correspondence between reasoning and choice or from a limited capacity of reasoning. Rationality is also considered with respect to the controversial axiom of strong independence. John C. Harsanyi introduces the concept of practical certainty, i. e.

Progress in Utility and Risk Theory

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400963513
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Progress in Utility and Risk Theory by : G.M. Hagen

Download or read book Progress in Utility and Risk Theory written by G.M. Hagen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY At the First International Congress of Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo 1982 (FUR-82) it appeared to be a widespread feeling among the participants that the conference signalled something like a paradigm shift in the field. This does not necessarily mean that old truths were discarded and replaced by new ones, but rather that new theories and new empirical evidence were brought forth, compelling old theories to be critically analyzed from new angels. Some of the papers presented at FUR-82 have been published by Reidel in 1983 in a volume edited by Stigum and Wenst0p. The present volume contains com mentaries on a number of the papers presented at the conference together with broader outlines of current views on the theory. The observation that utility and risk theory now appears to be in a state of rapid change has prompted us to choose the title PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY for the book, in the belief that science always moves from poorer to more advanced paradigms or from weaker to more forceful theories. In other words, change is usually progress, even though intermediate stages in a para digm shift may be bewildering, to say the least.

Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401131465
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory by : Attila Chikán

Download or read book Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory written by Attila Chikán and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

Philosophy of Probability

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792323853
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (238 download)

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Book Synopsis Philosophy of Probability by : Jacques Dubucs

Download or read book Philosophy of Probability written by Jacques Dubucs and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1993-09-30 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Philosophy of Probability provides a comprehensive introduction to theoretical issues that occupy a central position in disciplines ranging from philosophy of mind and epistemology to cognitive science, decision theory and artificial intelligence. Some contributions shed new light on the standard conceptions of probability (Bayesianism, logical and computational theories); others offer detailed analyses of two important topics in the field of cognitive science: the meaning and the representation of (partial) belief, and the management of uncertainty. The authors of this well-balanced account are philosophers as well as computer scientists (among them, L.J. Cohen, D. Miller, P. Gärdenfors, J. Vickers, D. Dubois and H. Prade). This multidisciplinary approach to probability is designed to illuminate the intricacies of the problems in the domain of cognitive inquiry. No one interested in epistemology or aritificial intelligence will want to miss it.

Progress in Utility and Risk Theory

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9789027717313
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (173 download)

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Book Synopsis Progress in Utility and Risk Theory by : G.M. Hagen

Download or read book Progress in Utility and Risk Theory written by G.M. Hagen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1984-06-30 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY At the First International Congress of Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo 1982 (FUR-82) it appeared to be a widespread feeling among the participants that the conference signalled something like a paradigm shift in the field. This does not necessarily mean that old truths were discarded and replaced by new ones, but rather that new theories and new empirical evidence were brought forth, compelling old theories to be critically analyzed from new angels. Some of the papers presented at FUR-82 have been published by Reidel in 1983 in a volume edited by Stigum and Wenst0p. The present volume contains com mentaries on a number of the papers presented at the conference together with broader outlines of current views on the theory. The observation that utility and risk theory now appears to be in a state of rapid change has prompted us to choose the title PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY for the book, in the belief that science always moves from poorer to more advanced paradigms or from weaker to more forceful theories. In other words, change is usually progress, even though intermediate stages in a para digm shift may be bewildering, to say the least.

Advances in Public Economics: Utility, Choice and Welfare

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387257063
Total Pages : 333 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Public Economics: Utility, Choice and Welfare by : Ulrich U. Schmidt

Download or read book Advances in Public Economics: Utility, Choice and Welfare written by Ulrich U. Schmidt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-06-28 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Festschrift in honor ofChristian Seidl combines a group of prominent authors who are experts in areas like public economics, welfare economic, decision theory, and experimental economics in a unique volume. Christian Seidl who has edited together with Salvador Barber` a ` and Peter Hammond the Handbook of Utility Theory (appearing at Kluwer Academic Publishers/Springer Economics), has dedicated most of his research to utility and decision theory, social choice theory, welfare economics, and public economics. During the last decade, he has turned part of his attention to a research tool that is increasingly gaining in importance in economics: the laboratory experiment. This volume is an attempt to illuminate all facets of Christian Seidl’s ambitious research agenda by presenting a collection of both theoretical and expe- mental papers on Utility,Choice,andWelfare written by his closest friends, former students, and much valued colleagues. Christian Seidl was born on August 5, 1940, in Vienna, Austria. Beginning Winter term 1962/63, he studied Economics and Business Administration at the Vienna School of Economics (then “Hochschule fff ̈ ur ̈ Welthandel”). 1966 he was awarded an MBA by the Vienna School of Economics and 1969 a doctoral degree in Economics. In October 1968 Christian became a research assistant at the Institute of Economics at the University of Vienna. 1973 he acquired his habilitation (right to teach) in Economics — supervised by Wilhelm Weber — from the Department of Law and Economics of the University of Vienna. He was awarded the Dr.

Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401129525
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications by : Ward Edwards

Download or read book Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications written by Ward Edwards and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.

Evolution and Progress in Democracies

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401715041
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Evolution and Progress in Democracies by : Johann Götschl

Download or read book Evolution and Progress in Democracies written by Johann Götschl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a ground-breaking series of articles, one of them written by a Nobel Laureate, this volume demonstrates the evolutionary dynamic and the transformation of today's democratic societies into scientific-democratic societies. It highlights the progress of modeling individual and societal evaluation by neo-Bayesian utility theory. It shows how social learning and collective opinion formation work, and how democracies cope with randomness caused by randomizers. Nonlinear `evolution equations' and serial stochastic matrices of evolutionary game theory allow us to optimally compute possible serial evolutionary solutions of societal conflicts. But in democracies progress can be defined as any positive, gradual, innovative and creative change of culturally used, transmitted and stored mentifacts (models, theories), sociofacts (customs, opinions), artifacts and technifacts, within and across generations. The most important changes are caused, besides randomness, by conflict solutions and their realizations by citizens who follow democratic laws. These laws correspond to the extended Pareto principle, a supreme, socioethical democratic rule. According to this principle, progress is any increase in the individual and collective welfare which is achieved during any evolutionary progress. Central to evolutionary modeling is the criterion of the empirical realization of computed solutions. Applied to serial conflict solutions (decisions), evolutionary trajectories are formed; they become the most influential causal attractors of the channeling of societal evolution. Democratic constitutions, legal systems etc., store all advantageous, present and past, adaptive, competitive, cooperative and collective solutions and their rules; they have been accepted by majority votes. Societal laws are codes of statutes (default or statistical rules), and they serve to optimally solve societal conflicts, in analogy to game theoretical models or to statistical decision theory. Such solutions become necessary when we face harmful or advantageous random events always lurking at the edge of societal and external chaos. The evolutionary theory of societal evolution in democracies presents a new type of stochastic theory; it is based on default rules and stresses realization. The rules represent the change of our democracies into information, science and technology-based societies; they will revolutionize social sciences, especially economics. Their methods have already found their way into neural brain physiology and research into intelligence. In this book, neural activity and the creativity of human thinking are no longer regarded as linear-deductive. Only evolutive nonlinear thinking can include multiple causal choices by many individuals and the risks of internal and external randomness; this serves the increasing welfare of all individuals and society as a whole. Evolution and Progress in Democracies is relevant for social scientists, economists, evolution theorists, statisticians, philosophers, philosophers of science, and interdisciplinary researchers.

Risk, Decision and Rationality

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 940094019X
Total Pages : 694 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Decision and Rationality by : Bertrand Munier

Download or read book Risk, Decision and Rationality written by Bertrand Munier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty~nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision~making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective.

Theory and Decision

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400938950
Total Pages : 333 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory and Decision by : G. Eberlein

Download or read book Theory and Decision written by G. Eberlein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles contains contributions from a few of Werner Leinfellner's many friends and colleagues. Some of them are former students of Werner's. Others were colleagues of his at various American and European universities. Further, some have come to know Werner through his research, his long-standing editorship of Theory and Deci sion and his extensive participation in international conferences and congresses. The following articles are new to this volume. The areas covered are those in which Werner continues to play an active professional role. We offer them as a tribute to the many and multi-faceted contributions to the scientific enterprise for which Werner Leinfellner is so widely known. We believe such a festschrift to be fitting and long overdue. Because of the breadth of Werner's professional associations, it was difficult to select representatives from among his many spheres of influence. We apologize to the many scholars who could not be in cluded because of time and space considerations. Finally, we wish to express appreciation to Dean John Guilds of the University of Arkansas for providing financial support early on in the evolution of this project, to Jennifer Bauman for her bravura performance in copy-editing the manuscripts, and to our publisher at Reidel for bringing this volume to press.

Risk Analysis

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1489907300
Total Pages : 739 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (899 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Analysis by : Constantine Zervos

Download or read book Risk Analysis written by Constantine Zervos and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 739 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of the series Advances in Risk Analysis consists of papers presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, which was held October 30 through November 2 at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, DC. The papers span the gamut of the increasing number of risk assessment topics addressed by the Society since it held its fIrst annual meeting in June 1981, also in Washington DC. Organized to promote interdisciplinary analyses, the Society approaches risks from three broad perspectives: (1) the impact of various risks on the health of the world's populations and on the environment; (2) the social and political implications of specifIc risks, and (3) the management and reduction of risks through the development of a risk analysis methodology and corresponding data bases. The papers included in this volume typify these three approaches and illustrate their interdependence. For example, both cancer and noncancer health risks are examined for a variety of situations that exist within society. The public's perception of risks and the correlation between that perception and the acceptance or nonacceptance of certain risks is also addressed. In addition, the progress to date on predicting and quantifying specifIc risks, including the risks associated with the construction and use of large engineered systems, is reported. Included among the papers are several dealing with recent current issues, such as the impact of California's Proposition 65, hazardous waste disposal, and chemical accidents.

Theory and Experiment

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400928750
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory and Experiment by : Diderik Batens

Download or read book Theory and Experiment written by Diderik Batens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is not "another collection of contributions on a traditional subject." Even more than we dared to expect during the preparatory stages, the papers in this volume prove that our thinking about science has taken a new turn and has reached a new stage. The progressive destruction of the received view has been a fascinating and healthy experience. At present, the period of destruction is over. A richer and more equilibrated analysis of a number of problems is possible and is being cru'ried out. In this sense, this book comes right on time. We owe a lot to the scholars of the Kuhnian period. They not only did away with obstacles, but in several respects instigated a shift in attention that changed history and philosophy of science in a irreversible way. A c1earcut example - we borrow it from the paper by Risto Hilpinen - concerns the study of science as a process, Rnd not only as a result. Moreover, they apparently reached several lasting results, e.g., concerning the tremendous impact of theoretical conceptions on empirical data. Apart from baffling people for several decades, this insight rules out an other return to simple-minded empiricism in the future.

Markets, Risk and Money

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401107807
Total Pages : 381 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Markets, Risk and Money by : Bertrand Munier

Download or read book Markets, Risk and Money written by Bertrand Munier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of the writings of Maurice Allais, 1988 Nobel Laureate in Economics have only been published in French. Thus to date, economists, management scientists and operations researchers have been severely restricted in gaining access to his work. Markets, Risk and Money presents, for the first time in English, Allais' unconventional views on economic competition, the significance of free markets and overlapping generations, risk psychology, central banking, taxation systems, monetary dynamics and reform. The volume provides a consistent vision of our society and offers readers an evaluation of the impact of Allais' work on our present body of knowledge. Markets, Risk and Money contains contributions from a number of distinguished European and American scholars including Bertrand Munier, Thierry Montbrial, J. Lesourne, Claude Ponsard, Edmond Malinvaud, André Babeau, Marcel Boiteux, Lola L. Lopes, Mark J. Machina, James B. Ramsey, Xavier Freixas, B. Roy and D. Bouyssou, Werner Leinfellner and Jean-Jacques Durand. A biographical sketch and complete bibliography of the author are also included.

Valuing Health Risks, Costs, and Benefits for Environmental Decision Making

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309041953
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Valuing Health Risks, Costs, and Benefits for Environmental Decision Making by : National Research Council

Download or read book Valuing Health Risks, Costs, and Benefits for Environmental Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1990-02-01 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Essays on Philosophy, Politics & Economics

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Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804774641
Total Pages : 392 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Philosophy, Politics & Economics by : Gerald Gaus

Download or read book Essays on Philosophy, Politics & Economics written by Gerald Gaus and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2010-05-17 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together distinguished philosophers with interdisciplinary expertise to show how the resources of philosophy can be employed in the tasks of evaluating economics and fostering policy debates. Contributors offer analyses of basic ideas in economics, such as the notion of efficiency, "economic man", incentives, self-interest, and utility maximization. They discuss key concepts in political theory such as desert, compensation, autonomy, equality, consent or fairness. The book then offers examples of how philosophical resources can be applied to specific, timely debates, such as discrimination, affirmative action, and ethical considerations in Social Security. These applications demonstrate how philosophy, politics, and economics can be fruitfully combined, while the more theoretical chapters clarify fundamental relationships across these related disciplines. Ultimately, the text guides students and scholars in expanding their perspectives as they approach the necessarily complex research questions of today and tomorrow.

Utility and Probability

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349205680
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (492 download)

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Book Synopsis Utility and Probability by : John Eatwell

Download or read book Utility and Probability written by John Eatwell and published by Springer. This book was released on 1990-02-23 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an excerpt from the 4-volume dictionary of economics, a reference book which aims to define the subject of economics today. 1300 subject entries in the complete work cover the broad themes of economic theory. This extract concentrates on utility and probability.