Forecasts For The Future Population

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Beyond Six Billion

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309069904
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council

Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Beyond Six Billion

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309172020
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council

Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-09-11 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Forecasts for the Future-population

Author : Victor R. Hill
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasts for the Future-population by : Victor R. Hill

Download or read book Forecasts for the Future-population written by Victor R. Hill and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Of projections -- The population projection process -- Municipal and industrial water use projections.

Frontiers of Population Forecasting

Author : Wolfgang Lutz
Publisher : Population
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Frontiers of Population Forecasting by : Wolfgang Lutz

Download or read book Frontiers of Population Forecasting written by Wolfgang Lutz and published by Population. This book was released on 1999 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities

Author : Henry Van Beuren Stanbery
Publisher : U.S. Government Printing Office
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 98 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities by : Henry Van Beuren Stanbery

Download or read book Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities written by Henry Van Beuren Stanbery and published by U.S. Government Printing Office. This book was released on 1952 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Regional Population Projection Models

Author : Andrei Rogers
Publisher : SAGE Publications, Incorporated
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 108 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Population Projection Models by : Andrei Rogers

Download or read book Regional Population Projection Models written by Andrei Rogers and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 1985-08 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Andrei Rogers, one of the world's leading authorities on population trends, offers a powerful technique for carrying out regional population projections. He gives a clear step-by-step analysis and demonstrations of actual projections of future populations at the regional level. The examples show how to calculate regional population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions using data from several developed and less developed countries.

World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights

Author : United Nations Publications
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789211483161
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (831 download)

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Book Synopsis World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights by : United Nations Publications

Download or read book World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.

The Future Population of the World

Author : Wolfgang Lutz
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134065892
Total Pages : 527 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future Population of the World by : Wolfgang Lutz

Download or read book The Future Population of the World written by Wolfgang Lutz and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 527 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly acclaimed The Future Population of the World contains the most authoritative assessment available of the extent to which population is likely to grow over the next 50 to 100 years. The book provides a thorough analysis of all the components of population change and translates these factors into a series of projections for the population of the world's regions. This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updating starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first ever fully probabilistic world population projections. The projections, given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence levels for global populations. Combining methodological innovation with overviews of the most recent data and literature, this updated edition of The Future Population of the World is sure to conform its reputation as the most comprehensive and essential publication in the field.

Population Forecasting Methods

Author : Van Buren Stanbery
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Forecasting Methods by : Van Buren Stanbery

Download or read book Population Forecasting Methods written by Van Buren Stanbery and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Author : Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030050750
Total Pages : 349 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson

Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco

Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century

Author : Wolfgang Lutz
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198813422
Total Pages : 737 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century by : Wolfgang Lutz

Download or read book World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century written by Wolfgang Lutz and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Condensed into a detailed analysis and a selection of continent-wide datasets, this revised edition of World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century addresses the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Presenting the full chapter text of the original edition alongside a concise selection of data, it summarizes past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education, and examines relevant theories to identify key determining factors. Deriving from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents, World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century: An Overview emphasizes alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. It is an ideal companion to the county specific online Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer.

Empty Planet

Author : Darrell Bricker
Publisher : Signal
ISBN 13 : 0771050895
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Empty Planet by : Darrell Bricker

Download or read book Empty Planet written by Darrell Bricker and published by Signal. This book was released on 2019-02-05 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the authors of the bestselling The Big Shift, a provocative argument that the global population will soon begin to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape. For half a century, statisticians, pundits, and politicians have warned that a burgeoning planetary population will soon overwhelm the earth's resources. But a growing number of experts are sounding a different kind of alarm. Rather than growing exponentially, they argue, the global population is headed for a steep decline. Throughout history, depopulation was the product of catastrophe: ice ages, plagues, the collapse of civilizations. This time, however, we're thinning ourselves deliberately, by choosing to have fewer babies than we need to replace ourselves. In much of the developed and developing world, that decline is already underway, as urbanization, women's empowerment, and waning religiosity lead to smaller and smaller families. In Empty Planet, Ibbitson and Bricker travel from South Florida to Sao Paulo, Seoul to Nairobi, Brussels to Delhi to Beijing, drawing on a wealth of research and firsthand reporting to illustrate the dramatic consequences of this population decline--and to show us why the rest of the developing world will soon join in. They find that a smaller global population will bring with it a number of benefits: fewer workers will command higher wages; good jobs will prompt innovation; the environment will improve; the risk of famine will wane; and falling birthrates in the developing world will bring greater affluence and autonomy for women. But enormous disruption lies ahead, too. We can already see the effects in Europe and parts of Asia, as aging populations and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security. The United States is well-positioned to successfully navigate these coming demographic shifts--that is, unless growing isolationism and anti-immigrant backlash lead us to close ourselves off just as openness becomes more critical to our survival than ever before. Rigorously researched and deeply compelling, Empty Planet offers a vision of a future that we can no longer prevent--but one that we can shape, if we choose.

Global Trends 2040

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048188970
Total Pages : 318 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by : Jakub Bijak

Download or read book Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-23 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Populations, Projections, Politics

Author : Henk A. De Gans
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9051707479
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Populations, Projections, Politics by : Henk A. De Gans

Download or read book Populations, Projections, Politics written by Henk A. De Gans and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2003 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d

Demography

Author : Sarah Harper
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0191038687
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Demography by : Sarah Harper

Download or read book Demography written by Sarah Harper and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-05-11 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The generation into which each person is born, the demographic composition of that cohort, and its relation to those born at the same time in other places influences not only a person's life chances, but also the economic and political structures within which that life is lived; the person's access to social and natural resources (food, water, education, jobs, sexual partners); and even the length of that person's life. Demography, literally the study of people, addresses the size, distribution, composition, and density of populations, and considers the impact the drivers which mediate these will have on both individual lives and the changing structure of human populations. This Very Short Introduction considers the way in which the global population has evolved over time and space. Sarah Harper discusses the theorists, theories, and methods involved in studying population trends and movements, before looking at the emergence of new demographic sub-disciplines and addressing some of the future population challenges of the 21st century. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.