Forecasting With A Global Var Model

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The GVAR Handbook

Author : Filippo di Mauro
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191649082
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis The GVAR Handbook by : Filippo di Mauro

Download or read book The GVAR Handbook written by Filippo di Mauro and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-02-28 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GVAR is a global Vector autoregression model of the global economy. The model was initially developed in the early 2000 by Professor Pesaran and co-authors, for the main purpose of analysing credit risk in a globalised economy. Starting from mid-2000 the model was substantially enlarged in the context of a project financed by the ECB, to comprise all major economies and the Euro area as a whole. The purpose of this version was to exploit the rich modelisation of international linkages in order to simulate and analyse global macro scenarios of high policy interest. The rich, yet manageable, specification of international linkages has stimulated a vast literature on the GVAR. Since early 2011, the basic model - and its data base - has also available on a dedicated GVAR-Toolbox website with an easy-to-use interface allowing practical applications by an extended audience, as well as more complex analysis by the expert public. The book provides an overview of the extensions and applications of the GVAR which have been developed in recent years. Such applications are grouped in three main categories: 1) International transmission and forecasting; 2) Finance applications; and 3) Regional applications. By using a language which is accessible to not econometricians, the book reaches out to the extended audience of practitioners and policy makers interested in understanding channels and impacts of international linkages.

Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling

Author : Anthony Garratt
Publisher : Oxford University Press (UK)
ISBN 13 : 0199650462
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling by : Anthony Garratt

Download or read book Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling written by Anthony Garratt and published by Oxford University Press (UK). This book was released on 2012-03-15 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing a description of the state of modelling in global and national economies, this title introduces an approach to modelling that can readily be adopted for use in understanding how economies work and in generating forecasts for decision-makers and policy-makers alike.

Handbook of Research on Smart Technology Models for Business and Industry

Author : Thomas, J. Joshua
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1799836460
Total Pages : 520 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Research on Smart Technology Models for Business and Industry by : Thomas, J. Joshua

Download or read book Handbook of Research on Smart Technology Models for Business and Industry written by Thomas, J. Joshua and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-06-19 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in machine learning techniques and ever-increasing computing power has helped create a new generation of hardware and software technologies with practical applications for nearly every industry. As the progress has, in turn, excited the interest of venture investors, technology firms, and a growing number of clients, implementing intelligent automation in both physical and information systems has become a must in business. Handbook of Research on Smart Technology Models for Business and Industry is an essential reference source that discusses relevant abstract frameworks and the latest experimental research findings in theory, mathematical models, software applications, and prototypes in the area of smart technologies. Featuring research on topics such as digital security, renewable energy, and intelligence management, this book is ideally designed for machine learning specialists, industrial experts, data scientists, researchers, academicians, students, and business professionals seeking coverage on current smart technology models.

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

Author : Peter Fuleky
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030311503
Total Pages : 716 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky

Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Author : Eric Ghysels
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190622016
Total Pages : 617 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods by : Eric Ghysels

Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods written by Eric Ghysels and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.

Econometric Modelling and Forecasting of Tourism Demand

Author : Doris Chenguang Wu
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000773442
Total Pages : 327 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Modelling and Forecasting of Tourism Demand by : Doris Chenguang Wu

Download or read book Econometric Modelling and Forecasting of Tourism Demand written by Doris Chenguang Wu and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-10-27 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This insightful and timely volume provides a succinct, expert-led introduction to the latest developments in advanced econometric methodologies in the context of tourism demand modelling and forecasting. Written by a plethora of worldwide experts on this topic, this book offers a comprehensive approach to tourism econometrics. Accurate demand forecasts are crucial to decision-making in the tourism industry and this book provides real-life tourism applications and the corresponding R code alongside theoretical foundations, in order to enhance understanding and practice amongst its readers. The methodologies introduced include general to specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time-varying parameter modelling, spatiotemporal econometric models, mixed-frequency forecasting, hybrid forecasting models, forecasting combination techniques, density forecasting, judgemental forecasting, scenario forecasting under crisis, and web-based tourism forecasting. Embellished with insightful figures and tables throughout, this book is an invaluable resource for those using advanced econometric methodologies in their studies and research, including both undergraduate and postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners.

Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

Author : Mr.Dale F. Gray
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484387201
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR by : Mr.Dale F. Gray

Download or read book Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR written by Mr.Dale F. Gray and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-23 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sovereigns, and a GVAR model to combine the banking, the sovereign, and the macro sphere. The CCA indicators capture the nonlinearity of changes in bank assets, equity capital, credit spreads, and default probabilities. They capture the expected losses, spreads and default probability for sovereigns. Key to the framework is that sovereign credit spreads, banking system credit risk, corporate sector credit risk, economic growth, and credit variables are combined in a fully endogenous setting. Upon estimation and calibration of the global model, we simulate various negative and positive shock scenarios, particularly to bank and sovereign risk. The goal is to use this framework to analyze the impact and spillover of shocks and to help identify policies that would mitigate banking system, sovereign credit risk and recession risk—policies including bank capital increases, purchase of sovereign debt, and guarantees.

The GVAR Handbook

Author : Filippo di Mauro
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0199670080
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis The GVAR Handbook by : Filippo di Mauro

Download or read book The GVAR Handbook written by Filippo di Mauro and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-02-28 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GVAR is a Global Vector Auto-Regression model of the global economy. Its main feature is to take into account the financial and real linkages connecting the major world economies. This book provides an overview of the GVAR and its applications: forecasting, finance issues, and regional studies.

The Next Great Globalization

Author : Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829445
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis The Next Great Globalization by : Frederic S. Mishkin

Download or read book The Next Great Globalization written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-10-08 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many prominent critics regard the international financial system as the dark side of globalization, threatening disadvantaged nations near and far. But in The Next Great Globalization, eminent economist Frederic Mishkin argues the opposite: that financial globalization today is essential for poor nations to become rich. Mishkin argues that an effectively managed financial globalization promises benefits on the scale of the hugely successful trade and information globalizations of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This financial revolution can lift developing nations out of squalor and increase the wealth and stability of emerging and industrialized nations alike. By presenting an unprecedented picture of the potential benefits of financial globalization, and by showing in clear and hard-headed terms how these gains can be realized, Mishkin provides a hopeful vision of the next phase of globalization. Mishkin draws on historical examples to caution that mismanagement of financial globalization, often aided and abetted by rich elites, can wreak havoc in developing countries, but he uses these examples to demonstrate how better policies can help poor nations to open up their economies to the benefits of global investment. According to Mishkin, the international community must provide incentives for developing countries to establish effective property rights, banking regulations, accounting practices, and corporate governance--the institutions necessary to attract and manage global investment. And the West must be a partner in integrating the financial systems of rich and poor countries--to the benefit of both. The Next Great Globalization makes the case that finance will be a driving force in the twenty-first-century economy, and demonstrates how this force can and should be shaped to the benefit of all, especially the disadvantaged nations most in need of growth and prosperity.

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Author : James H. Stock
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226774740
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by : James H. Stock

Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications

Author : Thomas B. Fomby
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISBN 13 : 9781781907528
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications by : Thomas B. Fomby

Download or read book Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications written by Thomas B. Fomby and published by Emerald Group Publishing Limited. This book was released on 2013-12-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Econometrics publishes original scholarly econometric papers with the intention of expanding the use of developed and emerging econometric techniques by disseminating ideas on the theory and practice of econometrics, throughout the empirical economic, business and social science literature.

Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability

Author : Eugenia Kalnay
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521791790
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability by : Eugenia Kalnay

Download or read book Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability written by Eugenia Kalnay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman

Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis

Author : Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498305059
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis by : Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko

Download or read book Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis written by Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-29 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse responses from a GVAR exercise demonstrate how the CBOE volatility index (VIX) and credit conditions around the globe impact a subset of sub-Saharan African economies and regions. The estimated relationships suggest that the effect of global uncertainty is more pervasive in exports, with the impact on economic and lending activities being mixed. The channels of transmission include the effects of global financial variables on commodity prices and on trading-partner’s macroeconomic and financial variables. The analysis suggests that shocks to credit conditions in the euro area and the U.S. have not significantly affected local lending conditions or economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa during 1991-2011, except perhaps in South Africa.

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030917340X
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Climate Forecasts Matter by : National Research Council

Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Time-Series Forecasting

Author : Chris Chatfield
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420036203
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Time-Series Forecasting by : Chris Chatfield

Download or read book Time-Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space

SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition

Author : John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.
Publisher : SAS Institute
ISBN 13 : 1629605441
Total Pages : 616 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (296 download)

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Book Synopsis SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition by : John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D.

Download or read book SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Third Edition written by John C. Brocklebank, Ph.D. and published by SAS Institute. This book was released on 2018-03-14 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To use statistical methods and SAS applications to forecast the future values of data taken over time, you need only follow this thoroughly updated classic on the subject. With this third edition of SAS for Forecasting Time Series, intermediate-to-advanced SAS users—such as statisticians, economists, and data scientists—can now match the most sophisticated forecasting methods to the most current SAS applications. Starting with fundamentals, this new edition presents methods for modeling both univariate and multivariate data taken over time. From the well-known ARIMA models to unobserved components, methods that span the range from simple to complex are discussed and illustrated. Many of the newer methods are variations on the basic ARIMA structures. Completely updated, this new edition includes fresh, interesting business situations and data sets, and new sections on these up-to-date statistical methods: ARIMA models Vector autoregressive models Exponential smoothing models Unobserved component and state-space models Seasonal adjustment Spectral analysis Focusing on application, this guide teaches a wide range of forecasting techniques by example. The examples provide the statistical underpinnings necessary to put the methods into practice. The following up-to-date SAS applications are covered in this edition: The ARIMA procedure The AUTOREG procedure The VARMAX procedure The ESM procedure The UCM and SSM procedures The X13 procedure The SPECTRA procedure SAS Forecast Studio Each SAS application is presented with explanation of its strengths, weaknesses, and best uses. Even users of automated forecasting systems will benefit from this knowledge of what is done and why. Moreover, the accompanying examples can serve as templates that you easily adjust to fit your specific forecasting needs. This book is part of the SAS Press program.