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Forecasting Volcanic Events
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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Events by : Haroun Tazieff
Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Events written by Haroun Tazieff and published by Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1983 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions by : Angelo Paone
Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions written by Angelo Paone and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-04-22 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The chapters presented in this International Volcanological Special Issue consider the characteristic features of a single volcano and/or a number of volcanoes worldwide (Jos and Biu Plateau volcanic provinces, Nigeria; Kachchh Rift Zone, Gujarat, India; Guamsan Caldera, Cheongsong, Korea; Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Napoli, Italy) in terms of future volcanic activity. The technical methods used are wide, innovative, as well as classic and reflect the knowledge presented in each chapter. The last chapter, however, deals with a new conceptual and methodological approach for the evaluation of volcanic risk. All these volcanoes (except Somma-Vesuvius volcano) are poorly studied so they deserve more attention, which is the goal of this volcanological book. Further studies are welcome to deepen the knowledge of each of the volcanoes presented.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309454158 Total Pages :135 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.
Book Synopsis The Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions by : R. B. Trombley
Download or read book The Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions written by R. B. Trombley and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 2006 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting the time, place, and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the major goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. Until recently, people living in a volcano's shadow had little help anticipating an eruption. A major volcanic event might strike with no warning at all. In the past 300 years, volcanic eruptions, most of them unexpected, have killed more than 250,000 people. In 2000, experts estimated that 500 million people were living in areas at risk from catastrophic volcanic eruptions. This book describes the strides that have made in eruption forecasting in recent years and explores why accurately predicting volcanic events remains difficult. Based on the methodologies in this book, Eruption Pro 10.6, to our knowledge, it is the only software programme of its type anywhere in the world. Eruption Pro 10.6 performs analysis on current available volcano eruption data from both historical and current available eruption data, near real-time measurement data including, seismic, deformation, thermal, frequency of eruption analysis, solar & lunar influences, crater lake temperature (if applicable), COSPEC, & statistical procedures. The newest version also accounts for, albeit very small, contributions due to lunar and solar influences.
Book Synopsis Towards Improved Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions by : Corentin Caudron
Download or read book Towards Improved Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions written by Corentin Caudron and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Events by : Bill McGuire
Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Events written by Bill McGuire and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Statistics in Volcanology by : Heidy M. Mader
Download or read book Statistics in Volcanology written by Heidy M. Mader and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2006 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.
Book Synopsis Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters by : Paolo Papale
Download or read book Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters written by Paolo Papale and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-10-29 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters provides you with the latest scientific developments in volcano and volcanic research, including causality, impacts, preparedness, risk analysis, planning, response, recovery, and the economics of loss and remediation. It takes a geoscientific approach to the topic while integrating the social and economic issues related to volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters. Throughout the book case studies are presented of historically relevant volcanic and seismic hazards and disasters as well as recent catastrophes, such as Chile’s Puyehue volcano eruption in June 2011. Puts the expertise of top volcanologists, seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists selected by a world-renowned editorial board at your fingertips Presents you with the latest research—including case studies of prominent volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters—on causality, economic impacts, fatality rates, and earthquake preparedness and mitigation Numerous tables, maps, diagrams, illustrations, photographs, and video captures of hazardous processes support you in grasping key concepts
Book Synopsis Introduction to Volcanic Seismology by : Vyacheslav M Zobin
Download or read book Introduction to Volcanic Seismology written by Vyacheslav M Zobin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-12-08 with total page 501 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic seismology represents the main, and often the only, tool to forecast volcanic eruptions and to monitor the eruption process. This book describes the main types of seismic signals at volcanoes, their nature and spatial and temporal distributions at different stages of eruptive activity. Following from the success of the first edition, published in 2003, the second edition consists of 19 chapters including significant revision and five new chapters. Organized into four sections, the book begins with an introduction to the history and topic of volcanic seismology, discussing the theoretical and experimental models that were developed for the study of the origin of volcanic earthquakes. The second section is devoted to the study of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, giving the theoretical basis for their occurrence and swarms as well as case stories of volcano-tectonic activity associated with the eruptions at basaltic, andesitic, and dacitic volcanoes. There were 40 cases of volcanic eruptions at 20 volcanoes that occurred all over the world from 1910 to 2005, which are discussed. General regularities of volcano-tectonic earthquake swarms, their participation in the eruptive process, their source properties, and the hazard of strong volcano-tectonic earthquakes are also described. The third section describes the theoretical basis for the occurrence of eruption earthquakes together with the description of volcanic tremor, the seismic signals associated with pyroclastic flows, rockfalls and lahars, and volcanic explosions, long-period and very-long-period seismic signals at volcanoes, micro-earthquake swarms, and acoustic events. The final section discuss the mitigation of volcanic hazard and include the methodology of seismic monitoring of volcanic activity, the examples of forecasting of volcanic eruptions by seismic methods, and the description of seismic activity in the regions of dormant volcanoes. This book will be essential for students and practitioners of volcanic seismology to understand the essential elements of volcanic eruptions. Provides a comprehensive overview of seismic signals at different stages of volcano eruption. Discusses dozens of case histories from around the world to provide real-world applications. Illustrations accompany detailed descriptions of volcano eruptions alongside the theories involved.
Book Synopsis Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters by : Paolo Papale
Download or read book Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters written by Paolo Papale and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-09-29 with total page 710 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters expands and complements the subject and themes in Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters. Together, the two volumes represent an exhaustive compendium on volcanic hazards, risks, and disasters. Volume two presents a comprehensive picture of the volcano dynamics relevant for volcanic hazard forecasts. It also includes case studies of the associated risks and aspects like operational volcano observatory responses, communication before and across volcanic crises, emergency planning, social science aspects, and resilience from volcanic disasters. Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters takes a geoscientific approach to the topic while integrating the social and economic issues related to volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters. Features the expertise of top volcanologists, seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists Presents the latest research - including case studies of prominent volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters - on causality, economic and social impacts, and preparedness and mitigation Includes numerous tables, maps, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs to aid in grasping key concept
Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Activity Using an Event Tree Analysis System and Logistic Regression by : William N. Junek
Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Activity Using an Event Tree Analysis System and Logistic Regression written by William N. Junek and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasts of short term volcanic activity are generated using an event tree process that is driven by a set of empirical statistical models derived through logistic regression. Each of the logistic models are constructed from a sparse and geographically diverse dataset that was assembled from a collection of historic volcanic unrest episodes. The dataset consists of monitoring measurements (e.g. seismic), source modeling results, and historic eruption information. Incorporating this data into a single set of models provides a simple mechanism for simultaneously accounting for the geophysical changes occurring within the volcano and the historic behavior of analog volcanoes. A bootstrapping analysis of the training dataset allowed for the estimation of robust logistic model coefficients. Probabilities generated from the logistic models increase with positive modeling results, escalating seismicity, and high eruption frequency. The cross validation process produced a series of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with areas ranging between 0.78 - 0.81, which indicate the algorithm has good predictive capabilities. In addition, ROC curves also allowed for the determination of a false positive rate and optimum detection threshold for each stage of the algorithm. The results demonstrate the logistic models are highly transportable and can compete with, and in some cases outperform, non-transportable empirical models trained with site specific information. The incorporation of source modeling results into the event tree's decision making process has begun the transition of volcano monitoring applications from simple mechanized pattern recognition algorithms to a physical model based forecasting system.
Download or read book Physical Geology written by Steven Earle and published by . This book was released on 2016-08-12 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a discount Black and white version. Some images may be unclear, please see BCCampus website for the digital version.This book was born out of a 2014 meeting of earth science educators representing most of the universities and colleges in British Columbia, and nurtured by a widely shared frustration that many students are not thriving in courses because textbooks have become too expensive for them to buy. But the real inspiration comes from a fascination for the spectacular geology of western Canada and the many decades that the author spent exploring this region along with colleagues, students, family, and friends. My goal has been to provide an accessible and comprehensive guide to the important topics of geology, richly illustrated with examples from western Canada. Although this text is intended to complement a typical first-year course in physical geology, its contents could be applied to numerous other related courses.
Book Synopsis Data Mining and Volcanic Eruption Forcasting by : Anaïs Boué
Download or read book Data Mining and Volcanic Eruption Forcasting written by Anaïs Boué and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eruption forecasting methods are valuable tools for supporting decision making during volcanic crises if they are integrated in a global monitoring strategy and if their potentiality and limitations are known. Many attempts for deterministic forecasting of volcanic eruptions and landslides have been performed using the material Failure Forecast Method (FFM). This method consists in adjusting an empirical power law on precursory patterns of seismicity or deformation. Until now, most of the studies have presented hindsight forecasts, based on complete time series of precursors, and do not evaluate the method's potential for carrying out real-time forecasting with partial precursory sequences. Moreover, the limited number of published examples and the absence of systematic application of the FFM makes it difficult to conclude as to the ability of the method to forecast volcanic eruptions. Thus it appears important to gain experience by carrying out systematic forecasting attempts in various eruptive contexts. In this thesis, I present a rigorous approach of the FFM designed for real-time applications on volcano-seismic precursors. I use a Bayesian approach based on the FFM theory and an automatic classification of the seismic events that do not have the same source mechanisms. The probability distributions of the data deduced from the performance of the classification are used as input. As output, the method provides the probability of the forecast time at each observation time before the eruption. The spread of the posterior probability density function of the prediction time and its stability with respect to the observation time are used as criteria to evaluate the reliability of the forecast. I show that the method developed here outperforms the classical application of the FFM both for hindsight and real-time attempts because it accurately takes the uncertainty of the data information into account. The automatic classification of volcano-seismic signals allows for a systematic application of this forecasting method to decades of seismic data from andesitic volcanoes including Volcan de Colima (Mexico) and Merapi volcano (Indonesia), and from the basaltic volcano of Piton de la Fournaise (Reunion Island, France). The number of eruptions that are not preceded by precursors is quantified, as well as the number of seismic crises that are not followed by eruptions. Then, I use 64 precursory sequences and apply the forecasting method developed in this thesis. I thus determine in which conditions the FFM can be successfully applied and I quantify the success rate of the method in real-time and in hindsight. Only 62% of the precursory sequences analysed in this thesis were suitable for the application of FFM and half of the total number of eruptions are successfully forecast in hindsight. In real-time, the method allows for the successful predictions of only 36% of the total of all eruptions considered. Nevertheless, real-time predictions are successful for 83% of the cases that fulfil the reliability criteria. Therefore, we can have a good confidence on the method when the reliability criteria are met, but the deterministic real-time forecasting tool developed in this thesis is not sufficient in itself. However, it could potentially be informative combined with other forecasting methods and supervised by an observer. These results reflect the lack of knowledge concerning the pre-eruptive mechanisms.
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards by : Roberto Scarpa
Download or read book Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards written by Roberto Scarpa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 846 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By the year 2000, the number of people at risk from volcanic hazards is likely to increase to around half a billion. Since 1980, significant advances have been made in volcano monitoring, the data from which provides the sole scientific basis for eruption prediction. Here, internationally renowned and highly experienced specialists provide 25 comprehensive articles covering a wide range of related topics: monitoring techniques and data analysis; modelling of monitoring data and eruptive phenomena; volcanic hazards and risk assessment; and volcanic emergency management. Selected case histories of recent volcanic disasters, such as Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, demonstrate that effective communication - between scientists, civil authorities, the media and the population at risk - is essential to reducing the danger.
Book Synopsis Updates in Volcanology by : Karoly Nemeth
Download or read book Updates in Volcanology written by Karoly Nemeth and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-09-21 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updates in Volcanology - From Volcano Modeling to Volcano Geology is a new book that is based on book chapters offered by various authors to provide a snapshot of current trends in volcanological researches. Following a short Introduction, the book consists of three sections, namely, ''Understanding the Volcano System from Petrology, Geophysics to Large Scale Experiments,'' ''Volcanic Eruptions and Their Impact to the Environment,' and ''Volcanism in the Geological Record.'' These sections collect a total of 13 book chapters demonstrating clearly the research activity in volcanology from geophysical aspects of volcanic systems to their geological framework. Each chapter provides a comprehensive summary of their subject's current research directions. This book hence can equally be useful for students and researchers.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions by : Robert W. Decker
Download or read book Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions written by Robert W. Decker and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk by : Susan C. Loughlin
Download or read book Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk written by Susan C. Loughlin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards and risk, with detailed regional profiles, for the disaster risk reduction community. Also available as Open Access.