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Forecasting Short Term Movement And Intensification Of Tropical Cyclones Using Pattern Recognition Techniques
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Book Synopsis Forecasting Short-term Movement and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Using Pattern-recognition Techniques by : John Pickle
Download or read book Forecasting Short-term Movement and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Using Pattern-recognition Techniques written by John Pickle and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Short-term Movement and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Using Pattern-recognition Techniques by : John Pickle
Download or read book Forecasting Short-term Movement and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Using Pattern-recognition Techniques written by John Pickle and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Short-term Movement and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Using Pattern-recognition Techniques by : John Pickle
Download or read book Forecasting Short-term Movement and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Using Pattern-recognition Techniques written by John Pickle and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions by : U.C. Mohanty
Download or read book Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change by : U.C. Mohanty
Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
Book Synopsis Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones by : Johnny C. L. Chan
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Environmental Research Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones on Daily to Interannual Time Scales by : James Ian Belanger
Download or read book Predictability and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones on Daily to Interannual Time Scales written by James Ian Belanger and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The spatial and temporal complexity of tropical cyclones (TCs) raises a number of scientific questions regarding their genesis, movement, intensification, and variability. In this dissertation, the principal goal is to determine the current state of predictability for each of these processes. To quantify the current extent of tropical cyclone predictability, we assess probabilistic forecasts from the most advanced global numerical weather prediction system to date, the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS). Using a new false alarm clustering technique to maximize the utility of the VarEPS, the ensemble system is shown to provide well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis through a lead-time of one week, and pregenesis track forecasts with similar skill compared to the VarEPS's postgenesis track forecasts. To quantify the predictability of TCs on intraseasonal time scales, forecasts from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS) are examined for the North Atlantic Ocean. From this assessment, dynamically based forecasts from the ECMFS provide forecast skill exceeding climatology out to weeks three and four for portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and the Main Development Region. Forecast skill in these regions is traced to the model's ability to capture correctly the variability in deep-layer vertical wind shear, the relative frequency of easterly waves moving through these regions, and the intraseasonal modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. :On interannual time scales, the predictability of TCs is examined by considering their relationship with tropical Atlantic easterly waves. First, a set of easterly wave climatologies for the CFS-R, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are developed using a new easterly wave-tracking algorithm. From the reanalysis-derived climatologies, a moderately positive and statistically significant relationship is seen with tropical Atlantic TCs. In relation to large-scale climate modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) exhibit the strongest positive covariability with Atlantic easterly wave frequency. Besides changes in the number of easterly waves, the intensification efficiency of easterly waves has also been evaluated. These findings offer a plausible physical explanation for the recent increase in the number of NATL TCs, as it has been concomitant with an increasing trend in both the number of tropical Atlantic easterly waves and intensification efficiency. :The last component of this dissertation examines how the historical variability in U.S. landfalling TCs has impacted the annual TC tornado record. To reconcile the inhomogeneous, historical tornado record, two statistical tornado models, developed from a set of a priori predictors for TC tornado formation, are used to reconstruct the TC tornado climatology. While the synthetic TC tornado record reflects decadal scale variations in association with the AMO, a comparison of the current warm phase of the AMO with the previous warm phase period shows that the median number of tornadoes per Gulf TC landfall has significantly increased. This change likely reflects the increase in median TC size (by 35%) of Gulf landfalling TCs along with an increased frequency of large TCs at landfall.
Book Synopsis Content-Addressable Memories by : Teuvo Kohonen
Download or read book Content-Addressable Memories written by Teuvo Kohonen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Due to continual progress in the large-scale integration of semiconductor circuits, parallel computing principles can already be met in low-cost sys tems: numerous examples exist in image processing, for which special hard ware is implementable with quite modest resources even by nonprofessional designers. Principles of content addressing, if thoroughly understood, can thereby be applied effectively using standard components. On the other hand, mass storage based on associative principles still exists only in the long term plans of computer technologists. This situation is somewhat confused by the fact that certain expectations are held for the development of new storage media such as optical memories and "spin glasses" (metal alloys with low-density magnetic impurities). Their technologies, however, may not ripen until after "fifth generation" computers have been built. It seems that software methods for content addressing, especially those based on hash coding principles, are still holding their position firmly, and a few innovations have been developed recently. As they need no special hardware, one might expect that they will spread to a wide circle of users. This monograph is based on an extensive literature survey, most of which was published in the First Edition. I have added Chap. ?, which contains a review of more recent work. This updated book now has references to over 1200 original publications. In the editing of the new material, I received valuable help from Anneli HeimbUrger, M. Sc. , and Mrs. Leila Koivisto.
Book Synopsis Government Reports Announcements & Index by :
Download or read book Government Reports Announcements & Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 930 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Government Reports Annual Index by :
Download or read book Government Reports Annual Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 1298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data by : Vernon F. Dvorak
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events by : Dan B. Mundell
Download or read book Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events written by Dan B. Mundell and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The largest errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasting are usually the result of rapid intensification events, where rapid intensification is defined as a change in minimum central pressure of at least 42 hP sub a in a 24 hour period, or a satellite-inferred increase in maximum sustained winds of a least 23 m/s 1 per day when no measurement of central pressure is possible. An observational and theoretical study is made of the unique characteristics of rapidly intensifying typhoons in the western North Pacific. Climatological data, digital infrared satellite imagery and composited rawinsonde sounding data within 5 deg of the center of tropical cyclones were used to identify the distinctive features associated with rapid intensifiers when compared to other stratifications of non-rapid intensifiers and non-intensifiers. Rapid intensity change is indicated on satellite imagery as an extreme concentration of convection near the cyclone center. Relative concentrations of inner and outer deep cumulus convection reveal a predictive relationship between the ratio of inner core to outer core convection and the onset of rapid intensity change 12 hours later. This prediction technique was found to successfully forecast rapid or non-rapid intensification in over 90% of the cases in a three-year study of 70 northwest Pacific tropical cyclones. A physical explanation of the likely processes associated with rapid intensification is also presented. Rapid intensification is believed to be the result of weak asymmetrical wind flow across the cyclone at upper levels of the troposphere. Rapid intensifiers are shown to have large warm anomalies near the tropopause and weak vertical shear of tangential winds below 150 hP sub a. Theses. (jhd).
Book Synopsis Exploring Natural Hazards by : Darius Bartlett
Download or read book Exploring Natural Hazards written by Darius Bartlett and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-04-09 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 has identified four priority areas for Disaster Risk Reduction: understanding disaster risk; strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response; and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Although tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in understanding the workings of the Earth systems and, in particular, its impacts on and responses to human actions, there remains a continuing and pressing need for knowledge that will allow society to simultaneously reduce exposure to global environmental hazards, while also meeting economic development goals. Exploring Natural Hazards: A Case Study Approach, contributes to the knowledge showcasing advanced practices for the monitoring of natural hazards. Through each case study, the book examines mainly hazards arising from processes within the hydrosphere and atmosphere, triggered or exacerbated by inputs to and transfers of energy between environmental components. It discusses the causes of these phenomena, and ways in which improved policy making, sometimes coupled with the application of appropriate modern technologies, can help to reduce people’s exposure to harm. Discussing challenges, lessons learned and recommendations, this book provides a snapshot of issues related to tropical cyclones and typhoons, desertification, floods, lightning as a hazard and the need for alert systems. It is a valuable resource for practitioners and professionals alike, for researchers, students and others who work at the intersection between environmental hazards, sustainable development and social justice.
Book Synopsis El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate by : Michael J. McPhaden
Download or read book El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Book Synopsis Prediction Enhancement Through Machine Learning of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification by : Alexandria Danielle Grimes
Download or read book Prediction Enhancement Through Machine Learning of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification written by Alexandria Danielle Grimes and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is considered one of the most challenging problems for the TC operational and research communities and remains a top priority for the National Hurricane Center. Upon landfall, these systems can have detrimental impacts to life and property. To support continued improvement of TC RI forecasts, this study investigated large-scale TC environments undergoing RI in the North Atlantic basin, specifically identifying important diagnostic variables in three-dimensional space. These results were subsequently used in the development of prognostic machine learning algorithms designed to predict RI 24 hours prior to occurrence. Using three RI definitions, this study evaluated base-state and derived meteorological parameters through S-mode and T-mode rotated principal component analysis, hierarchical compositing analysis, and hypothesis testing. Additionally, nine blended intelligence ensembles were developed using three RI definitions trained on data from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme- Rapid Intensification Index, Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast, and Final Operational Global Analysis. Performance metrics for the intelligence ensembles were compared against traditional linear methods. Additionally, a tenth ensemble was created using forecast data generated from Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of TC RI events in the open North Atlantic and compared against linear methods. Results revealed modest classification ability of machine learning algorithms in predicting the onset of RI 24 hours in advance by including TC environmental spatial information of temperature and moisture variables, as well as variables indicative of ambient environmental interactions.
Author :Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309517656 Total Pages :424 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (95 download)
Book Synopsis The Atmospheric Sciences by : Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Download or read book The Atmospheric Sciences written by Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-11-05 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.
