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Expected Credit Loss Modeling From A Top Down Stress Testing Perspective
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Book Synopsis Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top-Down Stress Testing Perspective by : Mr.Marco Gross
Download or read book Expected Credit Loss Modeling from a Top-Down Stress Testing Perspective written by Mr.Marco Gross and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-03 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to present an integrated tool suite for IFRS 9- and CECL-compatible estimation in top-down solvency stress tests. The tool suite serves as an illustration for institutions wishing to include accounting-based approaches for credit risk modeling in top-down stress tests.
Book Synopsis Market-Based Structural Top-Down Stress Tests of the Banking System by : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Download or read book Market-Based Structural Top-Down Stress Tests of the Banking System written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-10 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite increased need for top-down stress tests of financial institutions, performing them is challenging owing to the absence of granular information on banks’ trading and loan portfolios. To deal with these data shortcomings, this paper presents a market-based structural top-down stress testing methodology that relies in market-based measures of a bank's probability of default and structural models of default risk to infer the capital losses they could experience in stress scenarios. As an illustration, the methodology is applied to a set of banks in an advanced emerging market economy.
Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Book Synopsis Stress Testing Financial Systems by : Mr.Matthew T Jones
Download or read book Stress Testing Financial Systems written by Mr.Matthew T Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-09-27 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress testing is becoming a widely used tool to assess potential vulnerabilities in a financial system. This booklet is intended to answer some of the basic questions that may arise as part of the process of stress testing. The pamphlet begins with a discussion of stress testing in a financial system context, highlighting some of the differences between stress tests of systems and of individual portfolios. The booklet provides an overview of the process itself, from identifying vulnerabilities, to constructing scenarios, to interpreting the results. The experience of the IMF in conducting stress testing as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is also discussed.
Book Synopsis Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing by : Mr. Christian Schmieder
Download or read book Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing written by Mr. Christian Schmieder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihák (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main contributions include (a) increasing the risk-sensitivity of stress testing by capturing changes in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) under stress, including for non-internal ratings based (IRB) banks (through a quasi-IRB approach); (b) providing stress testers with a comprehensive platform to use satellite models, and to define various assumptions and scenarios; (c) allowing stress testers to run multi-year scenarios (up to five years) for hundreds of banks, depending on the availability of data. The framework uses balance sheet data and is Excel-based with detailed guidance and documentation.
Book Synopsis Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing by : Ms.Li L. Ong
Download or read book Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L. Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-09 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certainelements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Stress Tests and Policies: Searching for Robust and Implementable Frameworks by : Ron Anderson
Download or read book Macroprudential Stress Tests and Policies: Searching for Robust and Implementable Frameworks written by Ron Anderson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroprudential stress testing (MaPST) is becoming firmly embedded in the post-crisis policy-frameworks of financial-sectors around the world. MaPSTs can offer quantitative, forward-looking assessments of the resilience of financial systems as a whole, to particularly adverse shocks. Therefore, they are well suited to support the surveillance of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and to inform the use of macroprudential policy-instruments. This report summarizes the findings of a joint-research effort by MCM and the Systemic-Risk-Centre, which aimed at (i) presenting state-of-the-art approaches on MaPST, including modeling and implementation-challenges; (ii) providing a roadmap for future-research, and; (iii) discussing the potential uses of MaPST to support policy.
Book Synopsis Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests by : Mr. Dimitri G. Demekas
Download or read book Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests written by Mr. Dimitri G. Demekas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual institutions but also on their behavioral responses and their interactions with each other and with other economic agents; and (ii) focusing on the resilience of the system as a whole. Progress has been made toward the first goal: several models are now available that attempt to integrate solvency, liquidity, and other sources of risk and to capture some behavioral responses and feedback effects. But building models that measure correctly systemic risk and the contribution of individual institutions to it while, at the same time, relating the results to the established regulatory framework has proved more difficult. Looking forward, making macroprudential stress tests more effective would entail using a variety of analytical approaches and scenarios, integrating non-bank financial entities, and exploring the use of agent-based models. As well, macroprudential stress tests should not be used in isolation but be treated as complements to other tools and—crucially—be combined with microprudential perspectives.
Book Synopsis Credit Risk Analytics by : Bart Baesens
Download or read book Credit Risk Analytics written by Bart Baesens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-10-03 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The long-awaited, comprehensive guide to practical credit risk modeling Credit Risk Analytics provides a targeted training guide for risk managers looking to efficiently build or validate in-house models for credit risk management. Combining theory with practice, this book walks you through the fundamentals of credit risk management and shows you how to implement these concepts using the SAS credit risk management program, with helpful code provided. Coverage includes data analysis and preprocessing, credit scoring; PD and LGD estimation and forecasting, low default portfolios, correlation modeling and estimation, validation, implementation of prudential regulation, stress testing of existing modeling concepts, and more, to provide a one-stop tutorial and reference for credit risk analytics. The companion website offers examples of both real and simulated credit portfolio data to help you more easily implement the concepts discussed, and the expert author team provides practical insight on this real-world intersection of finance, statistics, and analytics. SAS is the preferred software for credit risk modeling due to its functionality and ability to process large amounts of data. This book shows you how to exploit the capabilities of this high-powered package to create clean, accurate credit risk management models. Understand the general concepts of credit risk management Validate and stress-test existing models Access working examples based on both real and simulated data Learn useful code for implementing and validating models in SAS Despite the high demand for in-house models, there is little comprehensive training available; practitioners are left to comb through piece-meal resources, executive training courses, and consultancies to cobble together the information they need. This book ends the search by providing a comprehensive, focused resource backed by expert guidance. Credit Risk Analytics is the reference every risk manager needs to streamline the modeling process.
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector by : Mr. Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector written by Mr. Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-22 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.
Book Synopsis Stress Testing and Risk Integration in Banks by : Tiziano Bellini
Download or read book Stress Testing and Risk Integration in Banks written by Tiziano Bellini and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2016-11-26 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress Testing and Risk Integration in Banks provides a comprehensive view of the risk management activity by means of the stress testing process. An introduction to multivariate time series modeling paves the way to scenario analysis in order to assess a bank resilience against adverse macroeconomic conditions. Assets and liabilities are jointly studied to highlight the key issues that a risk manager needs to face. A multi-national bank prototype is used all over the book for diving into market, credit, and operational stress testing. Interest rate, liquidity and other major risks are also studied together with the former to outline how to implement a fully integrated risk management toolkit. Examples, business cases, and exercises worked in Matlab and R facilitate readers to develop their own models and methodologies. Provides a rigorous statistical framework for modeling stress test in line with U.S. Federal Reserve FRB CCAR (Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review), U.K. PRA (Prudential Regulatory Authority), EBA (European Baning Authorithy) and comply with Basel Accord requirements Follows an integrated bottom-up approach central in the most advanced risk modelling practice Provides numerous sample codes in Matlab and R
Book Synopsis Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mindaugas Leika
Download or read book Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mindaugas Leika and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-11 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.
Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Book Synopsis Stress-testing the Banking System by : Mario Quagliariello
Download or read book Stress-testing the Banking System written by Mario Quagliariello and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-10-15 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress tests are used in risk management by banks in order to determine how certain crisis scenarios would affect the value of their portfolios, and by public authorities for financial stability purposes. Until the first half of 2007, interest in stress-testing was largely restricted to practitioners. Since then, the global financial system has been hit by deep turbulences, including the fallout from sub-prime mortgage lending. Many observers have pointed out that the severity of the crisis has been largely due to its unexpected nature and have claimed that a more extensive use of stress-testing methodologies would have helped to alleviate the repercussions of the crisis. This book analyses the theoretical underpinnings, as well as the practical aspects, of applying such methodologies. Building on the experience gained by the economists of many national and international financial authorities, it provides an updated toolkit for both practitioners and academics.
Book Synopsis United Kingdom: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Systemic Stress, and Climate-Related Financial Risks: Implications for Balance Sheet Resilience by : International Monetary
Download or read book United Kingdom: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Systemic Stress, and Climate-Related Financial Risks: Implications for Balance Sheet Resilience written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-04-08 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The FSAP started in an important macro-financial phase right after the second Covid wave and a third lockdown. The balance sheet resilience of major institutional sectors was at the center of policy considerations. Against this backdrop, the FSAP analyzed the pandemic’s potential “scarring” of banks, insurers, corporates, and households balance sheets, focusing on the interplay of macro-financial/structural conditions and financial vulnerabilities.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :104 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Germany by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Germany written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-08-16 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial sector weathered COVID relatively well on the back of high pre-crisis capital and liquidity buffers, strong public and private sector balance sheets, and unprecedented public and ECB support. Immediate risks to Germany’s financial stability of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appear to be manageable due to the banks’ limited direct exposures to Russia. However, risks associated with the economic fallout could impact some individual financial institutions, non-performing loans, and house prices. Real GDP growth was projected to regain momentum from mid-2022 onwards, but the war could hinder the recovery through supply constraints, higher-than-expected above-target inflation (with higher energy prices and supply constraints), a tightening of financial conditions, and shifts in investors’ confidence.
