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Author : P. de Grauwe
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349172863
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (491 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometric Models written by P. de Grauwe and published by Springer. This book was released on 1983-12-01 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Paul de Grauwe
Publisher : Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 9780312274023
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometric Models written by Paul de Grauwe and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 1983 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Guy V. Stevens
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Modeling Bilateral Exchange Rates in a Multi-country Model written by Guy V. Stevens and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475729979
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Modelling written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.
Author : Francis X. Diebold
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642456413
Total Pages : 153 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)
Download or read book Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.
Author : Arif Orçun Söylemez
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000357317
Total Pages : 83 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rates written by Arif Orçun Söylemez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-02-07 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.
Author : Ray C. Fair
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (151 download)
Download or read book Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results, the view has become fairly widespread that structural models of exchange rates are not very good. There is, however, somewhat of a dichotomy in the literature between those who deal with small models, where the focus is almost exclusively on exchange rates, and those who deal with large macroeconometric models, where exchange rates make up only a small subset of the endogenous variables. Most of the emphasis has been on the first approach, and it may be that exchange rate determination within the context of large models has not been given a sufficient hearing. Exchange rate and interest rate equations are estimated and analyzed for 17 countries in this paper. This study is part of a larger project of constructing a multicountry econometric model. One of the aims of the paper is to see if the exchange rate equations that are part of my multicountry model also suffer from the Meese and Rogoff criticism. The results show that the view that structural exchange rate models are not very good may be too pessimistic.
Author : Anthonie Knoester
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Effects of Exchange Rate Changes in a Multi-country Model and the Mismatch Phenomenon written by Anthonie Knoester and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert Miguel W. K. Kollman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451928521
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities written by Robert Miguel W. K. Kollman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era. The model predicts that a positive domestic money supply shock lowers the domestic nominal interest rate, that it raises output and that it leads to a nominal and real depreciation of the country’s currency. Increases in domestic labor productivity and in the world interest rate too are predicted to induce a nominal and real exchange rate depreciation.
Author : Lucio Sarno
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139435043
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Exchange Rates written by Lucio Sarno and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-01-09 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and empirics of exchange rate determination. Important developments in econometrics and the increasingly large availability of high-quality data have also been responsible for stimulating the large amount of empirical work on exchange rates in this period. Nonetheless, while our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a number of challenges and open questions remain in the exchange rate debate, enhanced by events including the launch of the Euro and the large number of recent currency crises. This volume provides a selective coverage of the literature on exchange rates, focusing on developments from within the last fifteen years. Clear explanations of theories are offered, alongside an appraisal of the literature and suggestions for further research and analysis.
Author : Ray C. Fair
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (555 download)
Download or read book A Multicountry Econometric Model written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Richard T. Baillie
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521396905
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (969 download)
Download or read book The Foreign Exchange Market written by Richard T. Baillie and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The flotation of exchange rates in the early 1970s saw a significant increase in the importance of foreign exchange markets and in the interest shown in them. Apart from the consequent institutional changes, this period also witnessed a revolution in macroeconomic analysis and finance theory based on the concept of rational expectations. This book provides an integrated approach to recent developments in the understanding of foreign exchange markets. It begins by charting the institutional background and looks at the recent history of movements in some of the major exchange rates. The theoretical sections focus on the economic and finance theory of the asset market approach, the macroeconomic models developed from this approach, and on interest rate parity theory. The empirical chapters draw on the authors' own research from a high quality set of exchange rate and interest rate data. The statistical properties of exchange rates are analysed; the relationship between spot and forward rates is examined; and the modelling and impact of new information on the forward and spot relationship is considered. The final chapter is devoted to the estimation and testing of exchange rate models.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451921012
Total Pages : 91 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book MULTIMOD written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-03-04 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes a global model consisting of several industrial and developing country blocks built to analyze alternative economic policies in a medium-term context. The model, which has been used to construct medium-term scenarios for the World Economic Outlook, consists of aggregate demand and supply relationships, with endogenous determination of interest rates, prices, and exchange rates. Financing flows to developing countries depend on expectations of their ability to service debt. Expectations of interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates are modeled in a way that is consistent with the model’s solution, and budget constraints are imposed on governments.
Author : Mr.Bennett T. McCallum
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451846010
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Specification of Policy Rules and Performance Measures in Multicountry Simulation Studies written by Mr.Bennett T. McCallum and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-06-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much recent analysis of international monetary and fiscal policy issues, such as the choice of an exchange-rate regime or the design of a policy coordination scheme, has been conducted by stochastic simulations with multicountry econometric models. In these studies, it has become standard practice to consider alternative policy rules of a particular form that calls for departures of a policy instrument, from some “baseline” reference path, that are proportional to deviations of a specified target variable from its own baseline path. The present paper argues, however, that this standard rule form is seriously defective for evaluating such issues because the implied rules (1) often fail to be operational and (2) have associated performance measures that can be misleading in important cases. An example is presented that concerns the international “assignment problem” of optimally pairing instruments with policy objectives.
Author : Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451964390
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-06-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We survey the literature on the two main views of exchange rate determination that have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flex-price, sticky-price and real interest differential formulations) and the portfolio balance approach. We then go on to discuss the extant empirical evidence on these models and conclude by discussing how the future research strategy in the area of exchange rate determination is likely to develop. We also discuss the literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, on exchange rates and ‘news’ and on international parity conditions.
Author : Sven-Morten Mentzel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642590179
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Movements written by Sven-Morten Mentzel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One aim of this book is to examine the causes of fluctuations in the mark/dollar, pound/dollar, and yen/dollar real exchange rates for the period 1972-1994 with quarterly data to determine appropriate policy recommendations to reduce these movements. A second aim is to investigate whether the three real exchange rates are covariance-stationary or not and to which extent they are covariance-stationary, respectively. These aims are reached by using a two-country overshooting model for real exchange rates with real government expenditure and by applying Johansen's maximum likelihood cointegration procedure and a factor model of Gonzalo and Granger to this model.
Author : Eric J. Pentecost
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Eric J. Pentecost and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1993 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines the development of the determinants of the exchange rate system since the mid-1970s. It scrutinises the main theoretical models of exchange rate determination and assesses their empirical validity drawn from recent econometric results (based on cointegration methodology).
