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Exchange Rate Volatility And Pass Through To Inflation In South Africa
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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Volatility and Pass-Through to Inflation in South Africa by : Mr.Ken Miyajima
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Pass-Through to Inflation in South Africa written by Mr.Ken Miyajima and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does the South African rand’s relatively large volatility affect inflation? To shed some light on this question, a standard estimation technique of exchange rate pass-through to inflation is extended to incorporate exchange rate volatility. Estimated results suggest that higher exchange rate volatility tends to increase core inflation but to a relatively limited extent in South Africa. The finding lends support to the policy of allowing the rand to float freely and work as a shock absorber, consistent with the nation’s successful inflation targeting regime.
Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics in South Africa by : Eliphas Ndou
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in South Africa written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-21 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa by : Alain N. Kabundi
Download or read book Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa written by Alain N. Kabundi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-30 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades, which coincides with the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. The paper conjectures, in line with the literature, that this outcome is largely due to improved monetary policy credibility. To do this, it first documents the factors that explain monetary policy credibility. Using the standard deviation of individual inflation forecasts as a measure of monetary policy credibility, its shows that the latter is negatively affected by the level of inflation itself, monetary policy uncertainty, and a measure of the unobserved stochastic volatility of inflation. The second phase proceeds by analyzing the determinants of the pass-through using the monetary policy credibility index derived from the first phase. The paper confirms the remarkable achievement that, despite the many shocks that the economy has witnessed, the declining pass-through is indeed explained by the improving monetary policy credibility.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes by : Eliphas Ndou
Download or read book Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-23 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980-2010. Our main findings is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from South African Rand to gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.
Book Synopsis The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty by : Sandile Hlatshwayo
Download or read book The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty written by Sandile Hlatshwayo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-23 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the link between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and exports in South Africa has weakened. While exports still rise in response to REER depreciations, the REER-export elasticity is below historical estimates. The literature has put forward a number of possible explanations, from multi-national supply-chains to muted exchange rate pass-through. This research explores the role of policy uncertainty in reducing the responsiveness of exports to relative price changes. We construct a novel “news chatter” measure of policy uncertainty and examine how it, paired with other supply-side constraints, can improve our understanding of export performance. We find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to the REER and has short and long-run level effects on export performance. Finally, we show that a measure of competitiveness that adjusts for uncertainty and supply-side constraints greatly outperforms the REER in tracking exports performance.
Book Synopsis South Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book South Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper studies the growth-inflation trade-off of monetary policy in South Africa. The combination of low growth and stubbornly high inflation expectations for a protracted period has complicated monetary policy decisions. The IMF staff analysis contributes to the ongoing growth-inflation trade-off discussion in South Africa, concluding that there is limited growth trade-off of monetary policy efforts to anchor inflation expectations at a lower level at present. The findings in this note suggest that the South African Reserve Bank should continue its efforts of anchoring inflation and inflation expectations at a lower level because monetary policy lends limited support to growth dampened by structural issues. During the 2010s, domestic demand growth responded little to monetary policy action. The environment of weak growth, low interest rates, and relatively moderate inflation (expectations) could have muted monetary policy transmission. Ultimately, the constraints to economic growth need to be removed. Meanwhile, inflation expectations continue to respond to monetary policy action albeit to a lesser extent. Monetary policy transmission through demand has weakened––demand growth does not systematically respond to monetary policy action nor does core inflation––but the exchange rate and credibility channels appear to remain operational.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa by : Mr.Ashok Bhundia
Download or read book An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa written by Mr.Ashok Bhundia and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2002-09-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the degree to which fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate passthrough to consumer prices in South Africa. While the average pass-through is found to be low, evidence from a structural vector autoregression suggests it is much higher for nominal (versus real) shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that the nominal exchange rate depreciation up to November 2001 is attributable primarily to negative real shocks, which explains why CPIX (consumer price index excluding interest on mortgate bonds) inflation did not increase significantly until December 2001, when positive nominal shocks began to contribute to the depreciation.
Download or read book Surprise, Surprise written by Nasha Maveé and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-17 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand / U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises—the difference between market expectations and data prints—are captured by Citi’s Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China.
Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries by : Mr. Marco Airaudo
Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries written by Mr. Marco Airaudo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Book Synopsis The Determinants of Inflation in South Africa by : Oludele Akinloye Akinboade
Download or read book The Determinants of Inflation in South Africa written by Oludele Akinloye Akinboade and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks by : Eliphas Ndou
Download or read book Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-08 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.
Book Synopsis The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies by : Mr.Mark R. Stone
Download or read book The Role of the Exchange Rate in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Economies written by Mr.Mark R. Stone and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-24 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rates of sub-Saharan African currencies in the context of the global financial crisis. In particular, it analyzes the reasons behind the differences in the magnitude and volatility of the exchange rates among countries. To this end, it takes a sample of seven countries, four members of the East African Community (EAC) (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda), and three others, which experienced large exchange rate losses at the onset of the crisis: Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia. First, it analyzes the movements of the exchange rates with respect to the U.S. dollar and two other major currencies. Second, it tries to link the magnitude of their movements to key factors, relating to the external environment and the countries' internal policies.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781451841046 Total Pages :109 pages Book Rating :4.8/5 (41 download)
Book Synopsis South Africa: Selected Issues by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book South Africa: Selected Issues written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2006-09-15 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses South Africa's recent growth performance and its new growth targets. It analyzes the history of exchange rate volatility, compares it with other countries, and examines the relationship between volatility and trade flows in South Africa. It highlights facts on reserves holding and presents an empirical analysis of a model in assessing the adequacy of South Africa's reserves. It also analyzes the cyclical balances to determine revenue performance and discusses the penetration of the South African financial conglomerates into State Security Agency and assesses potential vulnerabilities.
Book Synopsis The Relative Merits and Implications of Inflation Targeting for South Africa by : Gunnar Jonsson
Download or read book The Relative Merits and Implications of Inflation Targeting for South Africa written by Gunnar Jonsson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-08 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of industrial countries have adopted a framework for monetary policy that has become known as Inflation Targeting in the 1990s.2 In most cases, inflation targeting was introduced after unsuccessful attempts to target some monetary aggregate (e.g., Canada) or the nominal exchange rate (e.g., United Kingdom and Sweden). Its increasing popularity also has been nourished by a growing consensus among policy-makers, economists, and the public in general that there is no long-term trade-off between inflation and output, and that price stability fosters economic growth. For similar reasons, several emerging market economies have recently adopted, or indicated that they intend to adopt, inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework.3
