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Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets
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Book Synopsis Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets by : James H. Stock
Download or read book Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Dating business cycles entails ascertaining economy-wide turning points. Broadly speaking, there are two approaches in the literature. The first approach, which dates to Burns and Mitchell (1946), is to identify turning points individually in a large number of series, then to look for a common date that could be called an aggregate turning point. The second approach, which has been the focus of more recent academic and applied work, is to look for turning points in a few, or just one, aggregate. This paper examines these two approaches to the identification of turning points. We provide a nonparametric definition of a turning point (an estimand) based on a population of time series. This leads to estimators of turning points, sampling distributions, and standard errors for turning points based on a sample of series. We consider both simple random sampling and stratified sampling. The empirical part of the analysis is based on a data set of 270 disaggregated monthly real economic time series for the U.S., 1959-2010
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Book Synopsis Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics by : Katharine G. Abraham
Download or read book Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics written by Katharine G. Abraham and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume analyze the deployment of Big Data to solve both existing and novel challenges in economic measurement. The existing infrastructure for the production of key economic statistics relies heavily on data collected through sample surveys and periodic censuses, together with administrative records generated in connection with tax administration. The increasing difficulty of obtaining survey and census responses threatens the viability of existing data collection approaches. The growing availability of new sources of Big Data—such as scanner data on purchases, credit card transaction records, payroll information, and prices of various goods scraped from the websites of online sellers—has changed the data landscape. These new sources of data hold the promise of allowing the statistical agencies to produce more accurate, more disaggregated, and more timely economic data to meet the needs of policymakers and other data users. This volume documents progress made toward that goal and the challenges to be overcome to realize the full potential of Big Data in the production of economic statistics. It describes the deployment of Big Data to solve both existing and novel challenges in economic measurement, and it will be of interest to statistical agency staff, academic researchers, and serious users of economic statistics.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by : Siem Jan Koopman
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Book Synopsis The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance by : Don Harding
Download or read book The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance written by Don Harding and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-07-26 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis highlighted the impact on macroeconomic outcomes of recurrent events like business and financial cycles, highs and lows in volatility, and crashes and recessions. At the most basic level, such recurrent events can be summarized using binary indicators showing if the event will occur or not. These indicators are constructed either directly from data or indirectly through models. Because they are constructed, they have different properties than those arising in microeconometrics, and how one is to use them depends a lot on the method of construction. This book presents the econometric methods necessary for the successful modeling of recurrent events, providing valuable insights for policymakers, empirical researchers, and theorists. It explains why it is inherently difficult to forecast the onset of a recession in a way that provides useful guidance for active stabilization policy, with the consequence that policymakers should place more emphasis on making the economy robust to recessions. The book offers a range of econometric tools and techniques that researchers can use to measure recurrent events, summarize their properties, and evaluate how effectively economic and statistical models capture them. These methods also offer insights for developing models that are consistent with observed financial and real cycles. This book is an essential resource for students, academics, and researchers at central banks and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
Book Synopsis Applied Data Analytic Techniques For Turning Points Research by : Patricia Cohen
Download or read book Applied Data Analytic Techniques For Turning Points Research written by Patricia Cohen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-10-12 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This innovative volume demonstrates the use of a range of statistical approaches that examine "turning points" (a change in direction, magnitude, or meaning) in real data. Analytic techniques are illustrated with real longitudinal data from a variety of fields. As such the book will appeal to a variety of researchers including: Developmental researchers interested in identifying factors precipitating turning points at various life stages. Medical or substance abuse researchers looking for turning points in disease or recovery. Social researchers interested in estimating the effects of life experiences on subsequent behavioral changes. Interpersonal behavior researchers looking to identify turning points in relationships. Brain researchers needing to discriminate the onset of an experimentally produced process in a participant. The book opens with the goals and theoretical considerations in defining turning points. An overview of the methods presented in subsequent chapters is then provided. Chapter goals include discriminating "local" from long-term effects, identifying variables altering the connection between trajectories at different life stages, locating non-normative turning points, coping with practical distributional problems in trajectory analyses, and changes in the meaning and connections between variables in the transition to adulthood. From an applied perspective, the book explores such topics as antisocial/aggressive trajectories at different life stages, the impact of imprisonment on criminal behavior, family contact trajectories in the transition to adulthood, sustained effects of substance abuse, alternative models of bereavement, and identifying brain changes associated with the onset of a new brain process. Ideal for advanced students and researchers interested in identifying significant change in data in a variety of fields including psychology, medicine, education, political science, criminology, and sociology.
Book Synopsis Trends in Applied Knowledge-Based Systems and Data Science by : Hamido Fujita
Download or read book Trends in Applied Knowledge-Based Systems and Data Science written by Hamido Fujita and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-13 with total page 1019 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed conference proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Industrial, Engineering and Other Applications of Applied Intelligent Systems, IEA/AIE 2016, held in Morioka, Japan, in August 2-4, 2016. The 80 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 168 submissions. They are organized in topical sections: data science; knowledge base systems; natural language processing and sentiment analysis; semantic Web and social networks; computer vision; medical diagnosis system and bio-informatics; applied neural networks; innovations in intelligent systems and applications; decision support systems; adaptive control; soft computing and multi-agent systems; evolutionary algorithms and heuristic search; system integration for real-life applications.
Download or read book Statistics written by Türkmen Göksel and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2018-11-07 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since data grows faster than ever, the role of statistics becomes more and more crucial nowadays, and there is no doubt that statistics will be even more critical in the future. The application of statistics is extensive, and in our daily lives there is almost no human activity where the use of statistics is not needed. In this limited volume, we try to cover as many as different and multidisciplinary fields in statistics as possible and aim to present recent developments and applications of statistical analysis. Therefore, this book is organized into three sections: "The Role of Statistics on Quantification," "Applications of Statistics on Economics and Development," and "Applications of Statistics on Various Topics."
Book Synopsis A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) by : Karim Barhoumi
Download or read book A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI) written by Karim Barhoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-26 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.
Book Synopsis Re-engineering Manufacturing for Sustainability by : Andrew Y. C. Nee
Download or read book Re-engineering Manufacturing for Sustainability written by Andrew Y. C. Nee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-08 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume presents the proceedings of the 20th CIRP LCE Conference, which cover various areas in life cycle engineering such as life cycle design, end-of-life management, manufacturing processes, manufacturing systems, methods and tools for sustainability, social sustainability, supply chain management, remanufacturing, etc.
Book Synopsis Alternative Economic Indicators by : C. James Hueng
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles in BRICS by : Sergey Smirnov
Download or read book Business Cycles in BRICS written by Sergey Smirnov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-15 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.
Book Synopsis Social and Economic Perspectives on Sustainability by : Raya Tsvetkova
Download or read book Social and Economic Perspectives on Sustainability written by Raya Tsvetkova and published by IJOPEC Publications. This book was released on 2016-12-20 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: e term “Sustainability” possesses numerous meanings for different people and various circumstances and it is a common mistake to define sustainability strictly in terms of “environmental sustainability”. is misconception believes the major flaw of the contemporary pattern of development is simply its destruction of the environment. Handling “sustainability” only from an environmental standpoint is a superficial view that needs to be assessed carefully and underlined correctly. As A. D. Basiago suggests, “…[t]he protection of natural systems represents not an overarching panacea for achieving economic vitality and social justice, but a necessary component of an entire system for achieving economic, social and environmental ‘sustainability’, in which economic reforms and social reforms are as important.” e chapters included in this volume are composed of some selected significant contributions from the first International Sustainability Congress organized by International Center of Sustainability (ICS), 1-3 December 2016, in Istanbul, Turkey. All chapters are peer-reviewed by both the editors and at least two independent scholars from fields relevant to the manuscript's subject area. ICS is a research and academic center for sustainability founded in 2015 and dedicated to build resilience of communities and ecosystems to environmental and socio-economic risks. ICS has an integrated approach and specifies sustainability not only from an environmental point of view but also in terms of socio-economic process. Its mission is to produce information as well as enhance research and practice at Micro and Macro levels in Sustainable Development with a holistic and a cross-disciplinary approach.
Book Synopsis A Guide to Econometrics by : Peter Kennedy
Download or read book A Guide to Econometrics written by Peter Kennedy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-19 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dieses etwas andere Lehrbuch bietet keine vorgefertigten Rezepte und Problemlösungen, sondern eine kritische Diskussion ökonometrischer Modelle und Methoden: voller überraschender Fragen, skeptisch, humorvoll und anwendungsorientiert. Sein Erfolg gibt ihm Recht.
Book Synopsis Advanced Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-Sets by : Agostino Di Ciaccio
Download or read book Advanced Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-Sets written by Agostino Di Ciaccio and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-14 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The theme of the meeting was “Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-Sets”. In recent years there has been increasing interest in this subject; in fact a huge quantity of information is often available but standard statistical techniques are usually not well suited to managing this kind of data. The conference serves as an important meeting point for European researchers working on this topic and a number of European statistical societies participated in the organization of the event. The book includes 45 papers from a selection of the 156 papers accepted for presentation and discussed at the conference on “Advanced Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Large Data-sets.”
Book Synopsis Estimating Household Income to Monitor and Evaluate Public Investment Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Samuel Benin and Josee Randriamamonjy
Download or read book Estimating Household Income to Monitor and Evaluate Public Investment Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Samuel Benin and Josee Randriamamonjy and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Transactions on Engineering Technologies by : Sio-Iong Ao
Download or read book Transactions on Engineering Technologies written by Sio-Iong Ao and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-28 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a selection of revised and extended research articles written by prominent researchers participating in the international conference on Advances in Engineering Technologies and Physical Science is held in London, UK, during July 7–9, 2021. This book demonstrates revised and extended research articles written by prominent researchers participating in the conference. Topics covered include mechanical engineering, bioengineering, Internet engineering, image engineering, wireless networks, knowledge engineering, manufacturing engineering, and industrial applications. The book offers the state of the art of tremendous advances in engineering technologies and physical science and applications and also serves as an excellent reference work for researchers and graduate students working with/on engineering technologies and physical science and applications.
