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Author : Thierry Mayer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports written by Thierry Mayer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451849575
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-05-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses bilateral data on 420 merchandise trade flows between 21 industrial countries are used to estimate standard trade equations. The data set of over 11,000 observations allows the underlying elasticities to be estimated with considerable precision. Remarkably, a single specification appears to explain behavior across these countries in spite of the large number of individual flows analyzed. The results indicate a powerful long-run effect from supply on exports. Also, the real exchange rate elasticity depends upon the behavior of third country exchange rates. There is evidence of pricing to market and of a J-curve.
Author : Emmanuel Erem
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3668903921
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (689 download)
Download or read book The Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Exports written by Emmanuel Erem and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-03-20 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: A, National University of Ireland, Maynooth (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting), course: MSc Economic and Financial Risk Analysis, language: English, abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effect of real exchange rate volatility between the Canadian and US dollars on real exports from Canada to US. The study uses quarterly data from 1960-2017. The GARCH (1, 1) is used to model exchange rate volatility. After finding the variables are non-stationary with no co-integration, a VAR (Vector Auto regression) model is used to investigate the short-run relationship in the variables using Granger causality, impulse response functions and variance decomposition estimates. The results reveal that the effect of exchange rate volatility is of mixed signs with coefficients that are not statistically significant. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters; chapter 2 gives an overview of important literature and contributions by researchers over the years specifically covering the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade, exchange rate regimes, exchange rate target zones and inflation targeting. Chapter 3 presents the model and data used, definitions of the variables and the predictions of the model. Chapter 4 gives a theoretical and econometric overview of the unit root and co-integration tests. Chapter 5 gives the data output of the empirical results and discussions of test results. This output is presented using graphs and tables. Chapter 6 is a presentation of the limitations of the model and possible areas of improvement. Lastly, chapter 7 concludes and gives policy recommendations moving forward. Exchange rates are a key player in any economy that is engaging in international trade. A stable monetary policy system and financial sector play a key role in ensuring the exchange rate stability of the currency of a country. Firms and traders rely on prevailing exchange rates to forecast amounts to produce, import and export; thus are very much affected by the exchange rate volatility. In addition to this, there is a currency conversion cost in international trade. Traders use a number of products in financial markets to hedge against currency fluctuations; these include among others forwards contracts. This is especially true for short-term hedging than long-term hedging.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498330282
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows--Some New Evidence written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-05-19 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Author : Ying Qian
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Does Exchange Rate Volatility Hinder Export Growth? written by Ying Qian and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inconsistency in the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export growth reflects differences among countries in the currency in which trade is invoiced. Also, exchange rate volatility may affect the allocation of trade more than its level.
Author : Swarnali Ahmed
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513560972
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports written by Swarnali Ahmed and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-30 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes how the formation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has affected the exchange rate elasticity of exports. Using a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, we first find some suggestive evidence that the elasticity of real manufacturing exports to the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has decreased over time. We then examine whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of GVC integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final good exports. In line with this intuition, we find evidence that GVC participation reduces the REER elasticity of manufacturing exports by 22 percent, on average.
Author : Ehsan U. Choudhri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475510233
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book The Exchange Rate Pass -Through to Import and Export Prices written by Ehsan U. Choudhri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using both regression- and VAR-based estimates, the paper finds that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices for a large number of countries is incomplete and larger than the pass-through to export prices. Previous studies have reported similar results, which give rise to the puzzle that while local currency pricing is needed to account for incomplete import price pass-through, it would not imply a lower export price pass-through. Recent explanations of this puzzle have emphasized markup adjustment in response to exchange rate changes. This paper suggests an alternative explanation based on the presence of both producer and local currency pricing. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper shows that a mix of producer and local currency pricing can explain the pass-through evidence even with a constant markup. The model can also explain the observed exchange rate and inflation variability as well as the fact that the regression and VAR estimates tend to be similar.
Author : Ms.Emine Boz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148432885X
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Global Trade and the Dollar written by Ms.Emine Boz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-13 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Author : Pao-Hwa Chan
Publisher : Ann Arbor, Mich. : University Microfilms International
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on U.S. Trade Competitiveness written by Pao-Hwa Chan and published by Ann Arbor, Mich. : University Microfilms International. This book was released on 1996 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study applies two different econometric methodologies to investigate the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade prices and quantities using the aggregated and industry level data of the United States, Canada, and Japan in order to compare the similarities and differences in countries as well as industries. The dynamic responses of these trade prices and quantities become very interesting and valuable for the further study of the effect of exchange rate changes, because the most important feature of this study is that the value of the U.S. dollar depreciates in terms of the Japanese yen but at the same time appreciates against the Canadian dollar. The actual impact of exchange rate changes is estimated by combining the main features of the markup specification and the effect of intermediate cost changes. In addition to the explicit recognition of the effects of markups and cost changes, the study includes the feedback effect of the partial adjustment mechanism in three-stage least squares to compare the findings of the vector autoregressions and to develop more reasonable implicit explanations. Moreover, the vector autoregressive technique particularly provides an adapted exploration of the dynamic inter-relationships among the exchange rate changes and trade prices as well as quantities to identify the role of exchange rate changes in output and price determination by analyzing variance decompositions and impulse responses. The results from these two different econometric methodologies present several similar meaningful findings. The findings suggest that the exporters and importers of the United States do not meet a very competitive situation with Canadian traders. By contrast, the findings indicate that the export and import industries of the United States encounter severer competition when they trade to and from Japan. In addition to measuring competitiveness, the results also illustrate that the responses of exchange rate changes between the short-run and the long-run are relatively small in the trade prices of the United States and Japan, suggesting that most price adjustments will be completed immediately, while the adjustments of import prices occur slower than has been expected between the United States and Canada. Furthermore, according to the impact elasticities of trade volume equations, the results suggest that a trade negotiation or a managed exchange rate policy might be an effective way to improve the trade deficits between the United States and Canada, while these policies might cause the trade deficits between the United States and Japan to deteriorate after dollar depreciation.
Author : Patrick D. Alexander
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 78 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (131 download)
Download or read book Exports and the Exchange Rate written by Patrick D. Alexander and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding and predicting the evolution of exports after a change in the nominal exchange rate is of central importance in international economics. Most of the literature focuses on estimating this relationship by reduced form, with the aim of uncovering a single structural parameter, but theory suggests it could differ depending on the shock that drives the movement in the exchange rate. Building on this insight, we develop a small-open-economy SVAR model to derive structural shocks that affect the exchange rate. We then estimate this model using Canadian data and construct the response of exports relative to the response of the exchange rate, conditional on each shock. Our findings suggest that this relationship differs greatly from one shock to another, where domestic shocks generate a much weaker relationship than global shocks. We show that these differences can be reconciled with theoretical results from a small-open-economy New Keynesian model where Canadian exports are largely invoiced in US dollars. Finally, we highlight how our results help to inform recent discussions on the evolution of the exchange rate elasticity over time, the benefits of a flexible exchange rate, and the impact of terms of trade movements on exports.
Author : Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Output in Oil-Producing Countries written by Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-05 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom states that currency depreciation in oil-producing countries are contractionary because demand effects, limited by the prevalence of oil exports priced in dollars, are more than offset by adverse supply effects. Iran, however, has experienced a rapid increase in non-oil exports in the last decade. Against this background, the paper tests whether the conventional wisdom still applies to Iran and concludes that the emergence of the non-oil export sector has made currency depreciation expansionary. The expansionary effect is particularly evident with respect to anticipated persistent depreciation in the long-run. Notwithstanding the varying effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the demand and supply sides of the economy, managing a flexible exchange rate gradually over time towards achieving stability in the real effective exchange rate may strike the necessary balance.
Author : Robert C. Feenstra
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226239721
Total Pages : 603 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)
Download or read book China's Growing Role in World Trade written by Robert C. Feenstra and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-10 with total page 603 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.
Author : Anne Kenny McGuirk
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Swings and the Behavior of Export Prices of Manufactures written by Anne Kenny McGuirk and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Aaditya Mattoo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates written by Aaditya Mattoo and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates how changes in China's exchange rates would affect exports from competitor countries in third-country markets -- in other words, the "spillover effect." The authors use recent theory to develop an identification strategy, with a key role for the competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and export destinations. Using disaggregated trade data, they estimate the spillover effect by exploiting the variation across different exporters, importers, products, and time periods. They find a spillover effect that is statistically and quantitatively significant. Their estimates suggest that a 10-percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical four-digit Harmonized System product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent on average. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with the characteristics of products, such as the extent to which they are differentiated.
Author : Seymour Edwin Harris
Publisher : Cambridge : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 556 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Exchange Depreciation written by Seymour Edwin Harris and published by Cambridge : Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1936 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mathew Joseph
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (38 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Policy, Impact on Exports and Balance of Payments written by Mathew Joseph and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jahangir Aziz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book China's Changing Trade Elasticities written by Jahangir Aziz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-11 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's sectoral trade composition, product quality mix, and import content of processing exports have all changed substantially during the past decade. This has rendered trade elasticities estimated using aggregate data highly unstable, with more recent data pointing to significantly higher demand and price elasticities. Sectoral differences in these parameters are also very wide. All this suggests greater caution in using historical data to simulate the response of the China's economy to external shocks and exchange rate changes. Analyses based on models whose estimated coefficients largely reflect the China of the 1980s and 1990s are likely to turn out to be wrong, perhaps even dramatically.
