Essays On Monetary Business Cycles With Nominal Rigidities

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Essays on Monetary Business Cycles with Nominal Rigidities

Author : Junhee Lee
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Monetary Business Cycles with Nominal Rigidities by : Junhee Lee

Download or read book Essays on Monetary Business Cycles with Nominal Rigidities written by Junhee Lee and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: My dissertation assesses the role of money and nominal rigidities in economic fluctuations and tries to improve on the performance of existing models with nominal rigidities. The dissertation consists of two essays. The essay titled "Sticky Prices and Co-movement in the Business Cycle," examines the co-movement of economic variables across different sectors of the economy during business cycles. Specifically, I address the previously unresolved problem in standard real business cycle (RBC) models that labor used for consumption good production moves negatively with aggregate labor in sharp contrast with the data (Benhabib et al. (1991)). Traditionally, however, not only productivity shocks and real factors emphasized in standard RBC models but also monetary shocks and nominal factors are believed to be important in explaining business cycles (e.g. Friedman and Schwartz (1968)). But until now, there has been virtually no attempt to explain the sectoral co-movement in this perspective. So in this essay, I construct a sticky prices model with consumption and investment sector to examine the sectoral co-movement in models with nominal rigidities, which are widely accepted in recent monetary business cycle research. It turns out that monetary shocks can generate the observed sectoral co-movement in models with nominal rigidities. Productivity shocks also induce mild positive comovement due to the stickiness of prices, though the result may not be robust in certain specifications. In my second essay, "Labor Market Matching, Nominal Wage Stickiness and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks," I investigate whether we can obtain realistic propagation of monetary shocks in business cycle models with labor market matching and nominal rigidities. Business cycle models with nominal rigidities do not readily generate the persistent and hump shaped aggregate output dynamics in response to monetary shocks, and improvement on this score has been a key agenda among business cycle researchers. Some researchers have combined stickiness of goods prices and labor market matching but with limited success. I show that greater persistence and hump shaped dynamics of aggregate output as well as plausible labor market dynamics are obtained when nominal wage stickiness rather than nominal price stickiness is assumed in models with labor market matching.

Essays on Business Cycles, Nominal Rigidities and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Author : Fabrizio Zampolli
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (592 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles, Nominal Rigidities and Macroeconomic Uncertainty by : Fabrizio Zampolli

Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles, Nominal Rigidities and Macroeconomic Uncertainty written by Fabrizio Zampolli and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy

Author : Emrehan Aktuğ
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (134 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy by : Emrehan Aktuğ

Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy written by Emrehan Aktuğ and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation investigates the nonlinear dynamics in business cycles and the transmission of monetary policy using both empirical and theoretical frameworks. Chapter 1 examines the impact of macroeconomic asymmetry on the welfare cost of business cycles. I investigate the welfare cost of business cycles due to asymmetries generated by two occasionally binding constraints (OBCs): downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) and zero lower bound (ZLB). Although business cycle volatility has declined recently as the Great Moderation literature suggests, I find that the welfare cost of business cycles has doubled due to the increased skewness of business cycles over time that is apparent in the data. In a quantitative dynamic equilibrium model that accounts for volatility and skewness changes in pre and postVolcker periods, I estimate that the welfare cost of business cycles has increased from 0.57% (in terms of consumption equivalence) in the pre-Volcker period to 0.97% in the post-Volcker period. Counterfactual analysis shows that while both OBCs play a role, the binding ZLB explains most of the welfare effects in the post-Volcker period. Policy counterfactuals indicate that increasing the inflation target from 2% to 4% reduces the skewness of business cycles and the binding rates of both OBCs, thereby leading to a significant decrease in the welfare cost, from 0.97% to 0.67%. In Chapter 2, I investigate the welfare maximizing steady-state inflation rate in a heterogeneousagent New Keynesian model with Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity (DNWR). After matching the annual wage change distribution in the U.S., I show that DNWR has a very significant impact on the economy when the inflation target is low. Considering the effect of the zero lower bound, price dispersion due to sticky prices, declining natural rate of interest, and lower trend productivity, I find that the optimal inflation target should be much higher than 2%, close to 7%. This result holds taking transition dynamics into account and is robust to a wide range of parameterizations. Lastly, Chapter 3 analyzes the impact of heterogeneity in wage and price stickiness on the transmission of monetary policy. Using the price and wage rigidity estimates of previous studies, I find a slightly negative correlation between wage and price rigidity at the industry level. After categorizing 3-digit industries as rigid and flexible, I analyze the impulse responses of real variables to a monetary policy shock. I document a significant response of industrial production in price-rigid industries, whereas in wage-rigid industries the response is still significant but weaker. Consistent with the theory, the response in price- and wage-flexible industries is not significant. The empirical results suggest that due to relatively lower variation in wage stickiness at the industry level, price stickiness plays a more important role in the differential response of industries to a monetary policy shock. Besides, I develop a multi-sector model incorporating sector-level heterogeneity both in wage and price rigidity into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and analyze the monetary non-neutrality for different specifications. The results of the model verify the empirical findings

Essays on Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Business Cycle

Author : Zuzana Janko
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Business Cycle by : Zuzana Janko

Download or read book Essays on Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Business Cycle written by Zuzana Janko and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Essays on Nominal Rigidities, Bounded Rationality, and Macroeconomic Policy

Author : Mikel Petri Castro
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (122 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Nominal Rigidities, Bounded Rationality, and Macroeconomic Policy by : Mikel Petri Castro

Download or read book Essays on Nominal Rigidities, Bounded Rationality, and Macroeconomic Policy written by Mikel Petri Castro and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three chapters about macroeconomic policy. In the first chapter, I study the empirical relationship between nominal rigidities and the real effects of monetary policy. Nominal rigidities lie at the core of macroeconomics. The empirical evidence suggests that prices and wages adjust sluggishly to aggregate shocks, while theoretical models justify why and to what extent these rigidities imply monetary non-neutrality. However, direct evidence on nominal rigidities being the actual channel for the transmission of these shocks is relatively scarce. I construct a highly disaggregated measure of regional price stickiness for the U.S. and use it to provide evidence of this channel. My results are in line with sticky price models, indicating that employment in more rigid industries and commuting zones tend to have stronger reactions to monetary policy shocks. In the second chapter, joint with Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning, we document the extreme sensitivity of New Keynesian models to fiscal policy announcements during a liquidity trap--a phenomenon we call the “fiscal multiplier puzzle”. The response of current output to government spending grows exponentially in the horizon of the stimulus. Surprisingly, the introduction of rule-of-thumb hand-to-mouth agents, combined with deficit-financed stimulus, can easily generate negative multipliers that are equally explosive. This intuition translates to incomplete markets heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian models, leading to large negative multipliers when taxes are backloaded. We construct a belief-augmented New Keynesian framework to understand the role played by expectations in shaping the fiscal multiplier puzzle. The key element behind this result is the extreme coordination of the demand and supply blocks under rational expectations. Common knowledge between these two blocks induces an inflation-spending feedback loop. Government spending boosts aggregate demand and drives up inflation, which in turn leads to lower real rates and higher spending by households, increasing aggregate demand again. We break this strategic complementarity by introducing bounded rationality in the form of level-k thinking. In contrast to rational expectations, level-k multipliers are bounded and tend to zero over infinite horizons for all finite k. Moreover, level-k interacts strongly with incomplete markets in two different ways. First, the attenuation of the multipliers increases for any level of k on the degree of market incompleteness, especially in the future. Second, in contrast to complete markets, incomplete markets increase the magnitude of the multipliers for low levels of k when taxes are backloaded, making deficits more effective at stimulating the economy. In the third chapter, I explore the implications of downward nominal wage rigidities for fiscal policy and inflation in a liquidity trap. The standard Phillips Curve predicts big declines in economic activity should be accompanied by big deflation episodes. I study whether downward nominal wage rigidity can explain the missing deflation during the Great Recession. To do so, I introduce wage rigidity in a standard cash-in-advance liquidity trap model. My results show that nominal wage rigidities are consistent with mild deflationary episodes only when the trap is expected to be very short-lived. Away from this case, the model predicts large deflations and drops in output as in standard New Keynesian models. I also study the impact of fiscal policy in my setup, finding large multipliers that increase with the degree of wage rigidity. The main reason behind the effectiveness of government spending is its persistent effects on economic activity. Wage rigidity generates unemployment persistence due to pent-up wage deflation. Fiscal spending boosts aggregate demand and decreases deflationary pressures today. This increases output today and in the future by relaxing the downward wage rigidity constraint in all subsequent periods. Keywords: nominal rigidities, price stickiness, monetary policy, regional, bounded rationality, incomplete markets, level-k, fiscal policy, downward nominal wage rigidity. JEL Classification: E52, E62, E7.

Three Essays on Expectation Driven Business Cycles

Author : Shen Guo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Three Essays on Expectation Driven Business Cycles by : Shen Guo

Download or read book Three Essays on Expectation Driven Business Cycles written by Shen Guo and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore

Author : Philip A. Klein
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131549227X
Total Pages : 253 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (154 download)

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Book Synopsis Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore by : Philip A. Klein

Download or read book Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore written by Philip A. Klein and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.

Three Essays on Monetary Business Cycle

Author : Won-Kyu Kim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Three Essays on Monetary Business Cycle by : Won-Kyu Kim

Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Business Cycle written by Won-Kyu Kim and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Essays on Market Frictions, Economic Shocks and Business Fluctuations

Author : Seungho Nah
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 129 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Market Frictions, Economic Shocks and Business Fluctuations by : Seungho Nah

Download or read book Essays on Market Frictions, Economic Shocks and Business Fluctuations written by Seungho Nah and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: In the first essay, 'Financial Frictions, Intersectoral Adjustment Costs, and News-Driven Business Cycles', I show that an RBC model with financial frictions and intersectoral adjustment costs can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and plausible responses of stock prices in response to a news shock. Booms in the labor market, which make it possible for both consumption and investment to increase in response to positive news, are caused through two channels: the increases in value of marginal product of labor and the increases in value of collateral. Both of these channels enable firms to hire more workers. Intersectoral adjustment costs contribute to both channels by increasing the relative price of output and capital during expansions. Financial frictions enter in the forms of collateral constraints on firms, which influence the latter channel, and the financial accelerator mechanism driven by agency costs, which amplifies all the key variables. My model differs from previous studies in its ability to generate boom-bust cycles without restricting the functional form of consumption in household preferences and without requiring investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilization, or any nominal rigidities. In the second essay, 'Financial and Real Frictions as Sources of Business Fluctuations', I show that a negative shock to a financial or real friction in an economy can generate quantitatively significant and persistent recessions, even without a decrease in exogenous aggregate total factor productivity in a heterogeneous agents DSGE model. The increase in uncertainty that a firm is facing when it makes capital adjustment, however, is found to have a limited or dubious influence on economic activities. The roles of collateral constaints as a financial friction and nonconvex capital adjustment costs as a real friction in aggregate fluctuations are examined in this propagation mechanism. When these frictions become strengthened, the degree of capital misallocation is intensified, which leads to a drop of endogenous aggregate total factor productivity. As agents expect that the return to investment and endogenous TFP decrease, they reduce aggregate investment sharply, which also leads to a drop in employment. Interruption of efficient resource allocation coming from these two frictions is found out to be enough to generate a large and persistent aggregate flucutations even without introducing heterogeneity in firm-level productivity.

Essays in Macroeconomics

Author : Andresa Lagerborg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 253 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays in Macroeconomics by : Andresa Lagerborg

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics written by Andresa Lagerborg and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis comprises essays in macroeconomics across two main themes. The first studies the role of confidence shocks as a source of business cycle fluctuations using an instrumental variable approach. Exogenous drops in consumer confidence are identified by using school and mass shootings in the U.S. as natural experiments. Such autonomous drops in confidence are, in turn, found to sizably and persistently depress consumption and economic activity, raise prices, and reduce nominal interest rates. These empirical findings are shown to be consistent with a model in which negative confidence shocks reduce expectations of future technology, prompting consumers to save for wealth and precautionary motives, firms to reduce employment and investment while raising prices, and monetary authorities to reduce short-term nominal interest rates. These findings provide empirical evidence of a causal role of confidence in producing macroeconomic fluctuations. The second theme studies household fertility decisions in relation to business cycles and underlying labor market institutions. Fertility in the U.S. is shown to be procyclical with respect to current economic conditions (negative unemployment shocks) and rise in response to consumer expectation and stock price news shocks - representing expected wealth effects anticipated by households. However, fertility is shown to be countercyclical with respect to highly transitory TFP shocks - such that couples choose to have children during recessions when the opportunity cost (forgone wages) is lower, i.e. the income effect outweighs the substitution effect. Moreover, labor market institutions not directly targeting fertility are found to affect average fertility rates through their impact on business cycles. Fertility rates are negatively associated with wage rigidities (which raise employment volatility) and positively associated with employment rigidities (which instead raise wage volatility).

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle

Author : Jordi Galí
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400866278
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle by : Jordi Galí

Download or read book Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle written by Jordi Galí and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts

Essays on Business Cycles and Endogenous Growth

Author : Dmitry Brizhatyuk
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (124 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles and Endogenous Growth by : Dmitry Brizhatyuk

Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Endogenous Growth written by Dmitry Brizhatyuk and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the nexus between asset and credit market cycles, short-run fluctuations, and growth. What factors contribute to slow and incomplete recoveries from major crises? Why are some economies more prone to such dynamics than others and what lessons does it offer for policymakers? These are among the questions that I explore in my research. In the first chapter, I document that persistent fluctuations in trend growth -- medium frequency cycles -- tend to be more volatile and negatively skewed in emerging as opposed to developed small open economies. I argue that this evidence can be understood as stemming from the non-linear interaction between credit cycles, occasionally binding collateral constraints, and innovation-driven endogenous growth. Negative shocks are highly detrimental to productivity growth in vulnerable economies that are prone to sudden stops, but this is not the case in economies with deep financial markets where agents are more often able to optimally borrow to offset temporary negative income shocks. The second chapter studies the long-term effects of housing market boom-and-bust cycles. I first examine the relationship between the dynamics of the housing market, household debt, and economic activity in a historical panel of 50 countries. I show that housing market crashes robustly predict slower future output growth, most of which is explained by slower total factor productivity growth. Notably, the magnitude of this relation is increasing in the measure of preexisting household debt. To interpret these stylized facts, I construct a two-agent (borrower-saver) dynamic general equilibrium model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint tied to housing equity. Productivity grows endogenously in the model through forward-looking innovation investment. When the preexisting level of debt is sufficiently high, negative housing demand shocks cause the collateral constraint to bind and trigger deleveraging. The endogenous slowdown in TFP growth emerges as one of the adjustment margins during this process, prolonging the real effects of a crisis. The initial shock is amplified by a negative feedback loop between deleveraging, borrowers' housing wealth, and growth. I use the calibrated model to identify implications for the policy response during episodes of household deleveraging. Measures that reduce the debt burden of borrowers are effective in alleviating the short-run and persistent effects of deleveraging. In terms of monetary policy, the endogenous response of productivity growth warrants a greater focus on short-run output stabilization as opposed to inflation stabilization. Finally, in the third chapter (joint with Fabio Ghironi) we study the macroeconomic consequences of trade policy uncertainty emphasizing its negative effects on productivity growth. To that end, we build a small open economy model with nominal rigidity, innovation-driven endogenous growth, and time-varying volatility of domestic import tariffs. Several conclusions emerge: import tariff uncertainty shocks act as aggregate supply shocks; they cause a temporary improvement of the current account along with the real exchange rate appreciation in the medium run. In addition, an increase in import tariff uncertainty causes a sharp decline in the introduction of new intermediate products, which is detrimental to productivity growth and prolongs the effect of the shock. The size of these persistent effects -- relative to short-term effects -- is much larger for tariff uncertainty shock than for tariff level shocks. We show that endogenous risk premia in equity and bond markets is the key channel transmitting the shock to the broader economy and study role monetary policy in shaping it.

Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy

Author : Jing Han
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 95 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (624 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy by : Jing Han

Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy written by Jing Han and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Both technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important sources of economic fluctuations. My dissertation studies how these shocks affect the economy and how these shocks are propagated in the economy. A main theme is to detect the main propagation mechanisms of these shocks via both statistical approach and structural estimation approach.

Essays on Money and Business Cycles

Author : Bharat Trehan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (128 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Money and Business Cycles by : Bharat Trehan

Download or read book Essays on Money and Business Cycles written by Bharat Trehan and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics

Author : Jonathon Hazell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 342 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics by : Jonathon Hazell

Download or read book Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics written by Jonathon Hazell and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three chapters in empirical macroeconomics. In the first chapter, I study downward wage rigidity. Downward wage rigidity is central to many explanations of unemployment fluctuations. In benchmark models, the wage for new hires is particularly important, but there is limited evidence of downward rigidity on this margin. We introduce a dataset that tracks the wage for new hires at the job level -- across successive vacancies posted by the same job title and establishment. We show that the wage for new hires is rigid downward but flexible upward, in two steps. First, the nominal wage rarely changes at the job level. When wages do change, they fall infrequently, suggesting a constraint from below. Second, when unemployment rises, wages do not fall -- but wages do rise strongly as unemployment falls. We show that prior strategies, which study the average wage for new hires, cannot detect downward rigidity due to changing job composition. We then develop a tractable dynamic wage bargaining model with downward rigidity. We fit the model to our findings, and uncover state dependent asymmetry in unemployment dynamics. When there has been a contraction in the recent past, unemployment responds symmetrically to subsequent labor demand shocks; when there has recently been an expansion, unemployment is subsequently twice as sensitive to negative as to positive shocks. In the second chapter, I study the fall in the labor share. The labor share fell in the US and worldwide after the 1980s. This paper argues the falling labor share dampens unemployment fluctuations, in two steps. First, the paper studies a class of labor search models with capital. The falling labor share lowers the sensitivity of unemployment to labor demand shocks, regardless of whether rising capital or rising rents govern the labor share. The peak-to-trough fall in the US labor share lowers the sensitivity of unemployment to labor demand shocks by 30%. Second, the paper provides evidence for dampening. I exploit labor share variation within industries and between regions, to show that low labor share markets are less sensitive to the aggregate business cycle. Then I identify variation in the labor share using the passage of statewide reforms. After these reforms pass, the labor share falls, and state unemployment becomes less sensitive to aggregate business cycles. In the third chapter, I study systemic risk in the banking system. Banks face different but potentially correlated risks from outside the financial system. Financial connections can help hedge these risks, but also create the means by which shocks can propagate. We examine this tradeoff in the context of a new stylised fact we present: German banks are more likely to have financial connections when they face more similar risks -- potentially undermining the hedging role of financial connections and contributing to systemic risk. We find that such patterns are socially suboptimal, but can be explained by risk-shifting. Risk-shifting motivates banks to correlate their failures with their counterparties even though it creates systemic risk. JEL Codes E24, G21

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

The Chicago Plan Revisited

Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505523
Total Pages : 71 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis The Chicago Plan Revisited by : Mr.Jaromir Benes

Download or read book The Chicago Plan Revisited written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.