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Essays On Business Cycles With Credit Shocks
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Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles with Credit Shocks by : In Hwan Jo
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles with Credit Shocks written by In Hwan Jo and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recent but growing literature in macroeconomics works to reconcile microeconomic data with the micro-level predictions of dynamic stochastic equilibrium models in an effort to improve the aggregate performance of macroeconomic models. My dissertation follows in this new tradition. It also contributes to a recently revitalized literature attempting to understand the links between financial markets and real economic activity. The essays discussed below examine how real and financial shocks affect the distribution of production in an economy, and how that distribution in turn influences aggregate quantity variables. The models I explore involve rich, time-varying distributions of firms differing in their capital stocks, debt, and productivities.
Book Synopsis Essays on Financial Frictions and Business Cycles by : Yankun Wang
Download or read book Essays on Financial Frictions and Business Cycles written by Yankun Wang and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation I explore the relationship between the frictions in a country's financial market and its business cycle movements. It is well known that the financial market is far from perfect, and shocks originating in such market could have sizable impact on the real economy. On the other hand, evolvement in the financial market could also be a reflection of the real economy. For example, economic downturn often leads to high borrowing cost for a country in the international financial market. The essays in this dissertation present an analysis of this two-way relationship, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The first essay studies the link between country credit spreads - defined as the difference between a home country's cost of borrowing from the international credit market and the world riskless interest rate - and the domestic business cycle fluctuations. By combining both empirical and theoretical analysis, this essay shows that deteriorating credit markets are both reflections of a declining economy and a major factor that depresses economic activity. This study uses a quarterly dataset over the period 1972Q1 to 2010Q1 for South Korea. The second essay probes the importance of financial shocks in creating business cycles in the United States. It starts from a theoretical dynamic stochastic generating equilibrium model, which identifies positive financial shocks as those that drag down the corporate net worth while raising domestic output. An empirical analysis later uses this property to identify financial shocks and study their importance in creating business cycle movement for the U.S. in the past fifty years. This property is in stark contrast to technological shocks, which raise both corporate net worth and total output.
Book Synopsis Essays on Credit Frictions, Debt Choice, and the Business Cycle by : Julian Karl Douglas Wright
Download or read book Essays on Credit Frictions, Debt Choice, and the Business Cycle written by Julian Karl Douglas Wright and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on the Great Depression by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book Essays on the Great Depression written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2024-01-09 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize–winning economist and former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a landmark book that provides vital lessons for understanding financial crises and their sometimes-catastrophic economic effects As chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis, Ben Bernanke helped avert a greater financial disaster than the Great Depression. And he did so by drawing directly on what he had learned from years of studying the causes of the economic catastrophe of the 1930s—work for which he was later awarded the Nobel Prize. Essays on the Great Depression brings together Bernanke’s influential work on the origins and economic lessons of the Depression, and this new edition also includes his Nobel Prize lecture.
Book Synopsis Essays on the Macroeconomic and Financial Causes of the Great Recession by : Juan Jose Ospina Tejeiro
Download or read book Essays on the Macroeconomic and Financial Causes of the Great Recession written by Juan Jose Ospina Tejeiro and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is composed of three essays that study the macroeconomic and financial causes of the Great Recession. The first chapter focuses on understanding some of the business cycle dynamics of different regions in the United States. In particular, I seek to understand what shocks and frictions are the drivers of consumption and employment differences across subnational economies, particularly states. I find that the shocks and frictions that drive the aggregate business cycle are not enough to understand regional business cycle dynamics. In this chapter I develop methodological contributions that can help researchers guide the construction of models whose goal is to understand regional business cycle dynamics and how it relates to aggregate business cycle dynamics. The second chapter focuses on understanding the link between regional and aggregate business cycles. We find that that the shocks that we can identify using cross-sectional variation are insufficient to understand the joint dynamics of prices, wages and employment at business cycle frequencies. In particular, demand shocks identified using cross-region variation are insufficient to explain the persistent decline in aggregate employment. This chapter develops methodological contributions to identify shocks in macroeconomic models and to construct regional indexes for prices and wages. The third chapter is an empirical analysis of the non-agency mortgage backed securities market, which has been at the core of the explanations of the causes of the Great Recession. By carefully studying the cash flows, returns, and how they relate to the credit ratings, we find that contrary to the conventional narrative of the crisis, AAA-rated subprime mortgage backed securities performed remarkably well. This calls into question some key aspects of the explanations that have been given as triggers of the crisis of 2008, and points at the need to better understand the forces behind this event in order to have a more accurate understanding and be able to prescribe appropriate policies.
Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles in Emerging Economies by : Tao Peng
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles in Emerging Economies written by Tao Peng and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles and Endogenous Growth by : Dmitry Brizhatyuk
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Endogenous Growth written by Dmitry Brizhatyuk and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the nexus between asset and credit market cycles, short-run fluctuations, and growth. What factors contribute to slow and incomplete recoveries from major crises? Why are some economies more prone to such dynamics than others and what lessons does it offer for policymakers? These are among the questions that I explore in my research. In the first chapter, I document that persistent fluctuations in trend growth -- medium frequency cycles -- tend to be more volatile and negatively skewed in emerging as opposed to developed small open economies. I argue that this evidence can be understood as stemming from the non-linear interaction between credit cycles, occasionally binding collateral constraints, and innovation-driven endogenous growth. Negative shocks are highly detrimental to productivity growth in vulnerable economies that are prone to sudden stops, but this is not the case in economies with deep financial markets where agents are more often able to optimally borrow to offset temporary negative income shocks. The second chapter studies the long-term effects of housing market boom-and-bust cycles. I first examine the relationship between the dynamics of the housing market, household debt, and economic activity in a historical panel of 50 countries. I show that housing market crashes robustly predict slower future output growth, most of which is explained by slower total factor productivity growth. Notably, the magnitude of this relation is increasing in the measure of preexisting household debt. To interpret these stylized facts, I construct a two-agent (borrower-saver) dynamic general equilibrium model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint tied to housing equity. Productivity grows endogenously in the model through forward-looking innovation investment. When the preexisting level of debt is sufficiently high, negative housing demand shocks cause the collateral constraint to bind and trigger deleveraging. The endogenous slowdown in TFP growth emerges as one of the adjustment margins during this process, prolonging the real effects of a crisis. The initial shock is amplified by a negative feedback loop between deleveraging, borrowers' housing wealth, and growth. I use the calibrated model to identify implications for the policy response during episodes of household deleveraging. Measures that reduce the debt burden of borrowers are effective in alleviating the short-run and persistent effects of deleveraging. In terms of monetary policy, the endogenous response of productivity growth warrants a greater focus on short-run output stabilization as opposed to inflation stabilization. Finally, in the third chapter (joint with Fabio Ghironi) we study the macroeconomic consequences of trade policy uncertainty emphasizing its negative effects on productivity growth. To that end, we build a small open economy model with nominal rigidity, innovation-driven endogenous growth, and time-varying volatility of domestic import tariffs. Several conclusions emerge: import tariff uncertainty shocks act as aggregate supply shocks; they cause a temporary improvement of the current account along with the real exchange rate appreciation in the medium run. In addition, an increase in import tariff uncertainty causes a sharp decline in the introduction of new intermediate products, which is detrimental to productivity growth and prolongs the effect of the shock. The size of these persistent effects -- relative to short-term effects -- is much larger for tariff uncertainty shock than for tariff level shocks. We show that endogenous risk premia in equity and bond markets is the key channel transmitting the shock to the broader economy and study role monetary policy in shaping it.
Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles by : Thuy Lan Nguyen
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles written by Thuy Lan Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although news shocks are important in explaining the 1980 recession and the 1993-94 boom, they do not explain much of other business cycles in our sample. Moreover, the contribution of news shocks to explaining short run fluctuations is negligible. These results arise because data on expectations show that changes in expectations are not large and do not resemble actual movements of output. Therefore, news shocks cannot be the main driver of business cycles. Chapters Two and Three focus on the driving forces of business cycles in open economies. We start Chapter Two with an observation that business cycles are strongly correlated across countries. We document that this pattern is also true for small open economies between 1900 and 2006 using a novel data set for 17 small developed and developing countries. Furthermore, we provide a new evidence about the role of common shocks in business cycles for small open economies in a structural estimation of a real small open economy model featuring a realistic debt adjustment cost and common shocks.
Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy by : Jing Han
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles and Monetary Policy written by Jing Han and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Both technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important sources of economic fluctuations. My dissertation studies how these shocks affect the economy and how these shocks are propagated in the economy. A main theme is to detect the main propagation mechanisms of these shocks via both statistical approach and structural estimation approach.
Book Synopsis Essays on Business Cycles in Emerging Economies by : Andrés Fernández Martin
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles in Emerging Economies written by Andrés Fernández Martin and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Financial Crises by : A. W. Mullineux
Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by Bookboon. This book was released on 1990 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Banking Frictions, Uncertainty and Business Cycles by : Byoung Ho Bae
Download or read book Three Essays on Banking Frictions, Uncertainty and Business Cycles written by Byoung Ho Bae and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstracts: This dissertation studies the role of financial frictions and uncertainty on business cycles in the context of a DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model. In the first chapter, I study the role of the banking sector on business cycles, mainly by focusing on the friction that arises from a bank's portfolio adjustment. Based on empirical evidence, I construct a DSGE model with a banking sector, in which banks adjust the composition of their asset portfolios in response to the economic environment. The quantitative experiment shows that the credit supply-side friction arising from a bank's time-varying portfolio adjustment generates an amplification mechanism and leads to a deeper credit crunch. Furthermore, an economy with an inefficient financial system that requires higher intermediation costs creates a higher level of credit supply-side frictions and that, in turn, leads to the amplification effect of business cycles. The second chapter studies the role of bank capital requirements on business cycles. To this end, I develop a DSGE model with financial frictions arising from moral hazard problems as in Holmstrom and Tirole (1997) together with regulatory capital requirements on the banking sector. I find that financial deepening as measured by a decrease of a financial intermediary's monitoring costs could contribute to mitigating business cycle fluctuations. In addition, this study finds that imposing and increasing capital requirements on the banking sector could lead to a decrease in bank lending, thereby amplifying business cycles. The third chapter studies the effect of uncertainty shocks on the housing market with collateral constraints under a DSGE framework. The quantitative experiment shows that with a standard calibration, increasing volatility in structural shock processes negatively affects housing prices and investment, and that leads to a decrease in output. I also find that higher leverage with a large loan-to-value parameter in collateral constraints amplifies business cycles under uncertainty shocks. In addition, a monetary policy experiment shows that flexible monetary policy with a lower interest smoothing parameter helps to mitigate the fluctuation caused by uncertainty shocks.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Business Cycles by : John Bailey Jones
Download or read book Three Essays on Business Cycles written by John Bailey Jones and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays in the International Economics of Credit and Banking by : Bekele Sinkie Gebregiorgis
Download or read book Essays in the International Economics of Credit and Banking written by Bekele Sinkie Gebregiorgis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Essays on Topics in Business Cycle Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents by : Florian Kuhn
Download or read book Essays on Topics in Business Cycle Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents written by Florian Kuhn and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation investigates several business cycle relationships when economic agents are heterogeneous. The particular focus is on the interactions between the cross-section of agents and the aggregate state of the economy. The first chapter shows that, when occasionally binding capacity constraints limit the production of heterogeneous firms, demand shocks can endogenously generate a number of important business cycle regularities: recessions are deeper than booms are high, firm-level volatility is countercyclical, the aggregate Solow residual is procyclical and the fiscal multiplier is countercyclical. A baseline calibration of a basic New Keynesian DSGE model with capacity constraints shows that this mechanism can explain more than a quarter of the empirically observed asymmetry in output, and matches the cyclicality of firm-level profitability dispersion and of the measured Solow residual. The model implies fluctuations in the fiscal multiplier of around 0.12 between expansions and recessions. Chapter two takes a different approach to firm level uncertainty, exploring how recessions can cause an endogenous rise in firm risk. If heterogeneous firms face real and financial frictions, then a shock to the mean of aggregate productivity endogenously leads to countercyclical profitability risk through firms' heterogeneous responses in price setting. Additionally, the mechanism endogenously generates countercyclical credit spreads and credit spread dispersion. The model explains a large share of the observed fluctuations in profitability dispersion (69%) and in credit spreads (40%) through fluctuations in aggregate TFP holding productivity risk constant. This suggests that the scope for uncertainty shocks to explain recessions may be smaller than previously thought. The third chapter focuses on distributional effects of oil price shocks on the household side. In the model, household behavior replicates two patterns found in household-level data which show that gas consumption increases with income, but on the intensive margin gasoline consumption as a share of the household's budget decreases with income. The model includes gas consumption in household utility on top of a fixed minimum level of gas consumption. Calibrated simulations suggest that a shock to the gas price is almost twice as costly for relatively poor households than for relatively rich households.
Book Synopsis Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore by : Philip A. Klein
Download or read book Analysing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H.Moore written by Philip A. Klein and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This "Festschrift" honours Geoffrey H. Moore's life-long contribution to the study of business cycles. After some analysts had concluded that business cycles were dead, renewed economic turbulence in the 1970s and 1980s brought new life to the subject. The study of business cycles now encompasses the global economic system, and this work aims to push back the frontiers of knowledge.
