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Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9780849310874
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2001-06-27 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420040901
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2001-06-27 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, w
Author : Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470033304
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Author : Anca M. Hanea
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030464741
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Author : Mary A. Meyer
Publisher : SIAM
ISBN 13 : 0898714745
Total Pages : 471 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (987 download)
Download or read book Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment written by Mary A. Meyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
Author : Bilal Ayyub
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792380306
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (83 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach written by Bilal Ayyub and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1997-10-31 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0203497694
Total Pages : 597 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-06-26 with total page 597 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than any other book available, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics introduces the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author leads readers from the fundamental concepts through the theory, applications, and data requirements, sources, and collection. He emphasizes the practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each. Case studies that incorporate the techniques discussed offer a practical perspective that helps readers clearly identify and solve problems encountered in practice. If you deal with decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, this book is required reading. The presentation includes more than 300 tables and figures, more than 100 examples, many case studies, and a wealth of end-of-chapter problems. Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk assessment, this book helps you relate underlying concepts to everyday applications and better prepares you to understand and use the methods of risk analysis.
Author : Paul Szwed
Publisher : Project Management Institute
ISBN 13 : 1628251468
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (282 download)
Download or read book Expert Judgment in Project Management written by Paul Szwed and published by Project Management Institute. This book was released on 2016-04-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.
Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 146651826X
Total Pages : 628 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (665 download)
Download or read book Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-03-18 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics is required reading for decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The author describes the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive e
Author : Desmond N. D. Hartford
Publisher : Thomas Telford
ISBN 13 : 9780727732705
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (327 download)
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty in Dam Safety written by Desmond N. D. Hartford and published by Thomas Telford. This book was released on 2004 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intends to assist the dam owner in evaluating the needs for dam safety improvement, selecting and prioritizing remedial and corrective actions, and improving the operation, maintenance and surveillance procedures. This book is intended not only for industry specialists but also for readers outside the dam engineering community.
Author : Michael J Apted
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1845699785
Total Pages : 792 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (456 download)
Download or read book Geological Repository Systems for Safe Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuels and Radioactive Waste written by Michael J Apted and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-07-27 with total page 792 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geological disposal has been internationally adopted as the most effective approach to assure the long-term, safe disposition of the used nuclear fuels and radioactive waste materials produced from nuclear power generation, nuclear weapons programs, medical, treatments, and industrial applications. Geological repository systems take advantage of natural geological barriers augmented with engineered barrier systems to isolate these radioactive materials from the environment and from future populations. Geological repository systems for safe disposal of spent nuclear fuels and radioactive waste critically reviews the state-of-the-art technologies, scientific methods, regulatory developments, and social engagement approaches directly related to the implementation of geological repository systems. Part one introduces geological disposal, including multiple-barrier geological repositories, as well as reviewing the impact of nuclear fuel recycling practices and underground research laboratory activities on the development of disposal concepts. Part two reviews geological repository siting in different host rocks, including long-term stability analysis and radionuclide transport modelling. Reviews of the range of engineered barrier systems, including waste immobilisation technologies, container materials, low pH concretes, clay-based buffer and backfill materials, and barrier performance are presented in Part three. Part four examines total system performance assessment and safety analyses for deep geological and near-surface disposal, with coverage of uncertainty analysis, use of expert judgement for decision making, and development and use of knowledge management systems. Finally, Part five covers regulatory and social approaches for the establishment of geological disposal programs, from the development of radiation standards and risk-informed, performance-based regulations, to environmental monitoring and social engagement in the siting and operation of repositories. With its distinguished international team of contributors, Geological repository systems for safe disposal of spent nuclear fuels and radioactive waste is a standard reference for all nuclear waste management and geological repository professionals and researchers. Critically reviews the state-of-the-art technologies, scientific methods, regulatory developments, and social engagement approaches related to the implementation of geological repository systems Chapters introduce geological disposal and review the development of disposal concepts Examines long-term stability analysis, the range of engineered barrier systems and barrier performance
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309128536
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-04-02 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maintaining the capabilities of the nuclear weapons stockpile and performing the annual assessment for the stockpile's certification involves a wide range of processes, technologies, and expertise. An important and valuable framework helping to link those components is the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) methodology. In this book, the National Research Council evaluates: how the national security labs were using QMU, including any significant differences among the three labs its use in the annual assessment whether the applications of QMU to assess the proposed reliable replacement warhead (RRW) could reduce the likelihood of resuming underground nuclear testing This book presents an assessment of each of these issues and includes findings and recommendations to help guide laboratory and NNSA implementation and development of the QMU framework. It also serves as a guide for congressional oversight of those activities.
Author : Luis C. Dias
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319650521
Total Pages : 542 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)
Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Author : Christophe Simon
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119489350
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)
Download or read book Data Uncertainty and Important Measures written by Christophe Simon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-01-19 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book defines the concept of uncertainties and the mathematical frameworks that will be used for uncertainty modeling. The application to system reliability assessment illustrates the concept. In the second part, evidential networks as a new tool to model uncertainty in reliability and risk analysis is proposed and described. Then it is applied on SIS performance assessment and in risk analysis of a heat sink. In the third part, Bayesian and evidential networks are used to deal with important measures evaluation in the context of uncertainties.
Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Author : Gurumurthy Ramachandran
Publisher : William Andrew
ISBN 13 : 0323354084
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (233 download)
Download or read book Assessing Nanoparticle Risks to Human Health written by Gurumurthy Ramachandran and published by William Andrew. This book was released on 2016-07-21 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing Nanoparticle Risks to Human Health provides a systematic overview of nanoparticle risks and considers the limitations of this paradigm in a context where extreme uncertainties prevail. As well as exploring conventional risk assessment methodology, the contributing authors investigate several alternate approaches. The adequacy of current frameworks for risk management and regulatory oversights, including corporate approaches in the US and EU, are explored, and suggestions are made as to how these frameworks can be modified to make them more efficient and effective. Presenting a coherent framework for analysis of the available information, this book presents the latest scientific understanding of the toxicity and health effects of nanoparticles, the technical issues relating to exposure assessment and management, and the ways in which the current risk paradigm can be used/modified to deal with the challenges of nanoparticle risks. All chapters of this new edition have been thoroughly updated to reflect the many changes in the field since the first edition. Additions and updates in the second edition of the book include: New exposure assessment strategies for nanomaterials including life cycle exposure assessment approaches and detailed information on nanoparticle exposure control and protection in the workplace. A state-of-the-art scientific update on the hazard and risk assessment of nanomaterials: discussion of key additional publications on the toxicology and biokinetics of nanomaterials; available data and methods to characterize the health hazard and risk of exposure to nanomaterials in the workplace; additional examples of the use of such data and methods to develop occupational safety and health guidance; and discussion of progress to date, ongoing efforts, and remaining challenges in nanomaterials hazard and risk characterization. New studies on the use of expert judgment in nanotechnology. Quantitative data from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 4-phase study. A description and evaluation of new CB tools and new ISO technical specifications. A comprehensive update of the legal frameworks in the US and the EU. With the second edition of Assessing Nanoparticle Risks to Human Health Prof. Ramachandran provides researchers and practitioners producing or using nanoparticles, or those involved in nanomaterials risk assessments, technology, health science, policy, safety, environment and regulatory aspects an invaluable reference to adopt the right technologies and strategies and to comply to legal frameworks and regulations. For policy makers and advisory firms it provides the knowledge needed to advise on compliance with or development of new regulations on nanomaterials. Makes essential reading for risk assessment professionals, companies working with nanoparticles, nanotechnology research groups and regulators Explores the use of risk assessment methodologies in an occupational health setting, and their limitations Provides a framework for evidence-based decision making in a context with many uncertainties
