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Author : Mario Forni
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (6 download)
Download or read book Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area? written by Mario Forni and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mario Forni (Economiste.)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (718 download)
Download or read book Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area ? written by Mario Forni (Economiste.) and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Libero Monteforte
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Real Time Forecasts of Inflation written by Libero Monteforte and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a mixed frequency model for daily forecasts of euro area inflation. The model combines a monthly index of core inflation with daily data from financial markets; estimates are carried out with the MIDAS regression approach. The forecasting ability of the model in real time is compared with that of standard VARs and of daily quotes of economic derivatives on euro area inflation. We find that the inclusion of daily variables helps to reduce forecast errors with respect to models that consider only monthly variables. The mixed frequency model also displays superior predictive performance with respect to forecasts solely based on economic derivatives.
Author : Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451873883
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-11-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an aggregation of seven small countries) and selected combinations of financial variables. Impulse responses (in-sample) show that shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric, this macro-financial linkage would be weak: financial indicators do not improve short and medium term forecasts of real activity in the euro area, even when their timely availability, relative to GDP, is exploited. This result is partly due to the 'average' nature of the RMSE metric: when forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (conditionally on the information available at the time of the forecast), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred, ex ante, in several episodes, in particular between 1999 and 2002. This result suggests that one should not discard, on the basis of RMSE statistics, the use of predictive models that include financial variables if there is a theoretical prior that a financial shock is affecting growth.
Author : Andrea Nobili
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (4 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Output Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area written by Andrea Nobili and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0444536841
Total Pages : 719 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author : Matteo Falagiarda
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (971 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Targeted Predictors written by Matteo Falagiarda and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper sheds new light on the information content of monetary and credit aggregates for future price developments in the euro area. Overall, the authors find strong variation in the information content of these variables over time. they show that monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the benchmark model are generally high and significant across horizons and HICP components only in the most recent period. When the forecasts are computed using factor-augmented regressions based on the best predictors, we confirm the importance of monetary and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of variables."--Abstract.
Author : Juan Angel Garcia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484363019
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Juan Angel Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.
Author : Helge Berger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-07 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB's policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete picture of the economy. However, treating monetary factors as a separate matter is a second-best solution. Instead, a general-equilibrium inspired analytical framework that merges the economic and monetary "pillars" of the ECB's policy strategy appears the most promising way forward. The role played by monetary aggregates in such unified framework may be rather limited. However, an integrated framework would facilitate the presentation of policy decisions by providing a clearer narrative of the relative role of money in the interaction with other economic and financial sector variables, including asset prices, and their impact on consumer prices.
Author : Helge Berger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs written by Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice.
Author : Matteo Falagiarda
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (971 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Targeted Predictors written by Matteo Falagiarda and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper sheds new light on the information content of monetary and credit aggregates for future price developments in the euro area. Overall, the authors find strong variation in the information content of these variables over time. they show that monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the benchmark model are generally high and significant across horizons and HICP components only in the most recent period. When the forecasts are computed using factor-augmented regressions based on the best predictors, we confirm the importance of monetary and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of variables."--Abstract.
Author : G. Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080460674
Total Pages : 1071 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-05-30 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. The handbook also includes chapters on forecast evaluation, including evaluation of point forecasts and probability forecasts and contains chapters on survey forecasts and volatility forecasts. Areas of applications of forecasts covered in the handbook include economics, finance and marketing. *Addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods *Insights within this volume can be applied to economics, finance and marketing disciplines
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789289944717
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (447 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations and Their Role in Eurosystem Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem's Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB's monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, and (ii) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation expectations that ultimately matter in the expectations channel, data limitations have meant that in practice the focus of analysis has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators. Regarding the anchoring of inflation expectations, this paper considers a number of metrics: the level of inflation expectations, the responsiveness of longer-term inflation expectations to shorter-term developments, and the degree of uncertainty. Different metrics can provide conflicting signals about the scale and timing of potential unanchoring, which underscores the importance of considering all of them. Overall, however, these metrics suggest that in the period since the global financial and European debt crises, longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area have become less well anchored. Regarding the role measures of inflation expectations can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it comes to their predictive power, both market-based and survey-based measures are found to be more accurate than statistical benchmarks, but do not systematically outperform each other. Beyond their role as standalone forecasts, inflation expectations bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection exercises performed using structural models. In terms of the implications for the ECB's economic and monetary analysis going forward, the work of the EGIE essentially highlights the need for (i) more data on households' and firms' inflation expectations, (ii) a comprehensive framework for assessing (un)anchoring and (iii) further considerations regarding the use of observed expectation measures in forecasting models.
Author : Juha Kilponen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Productivity and Job Flows written by Juha Kilponen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on productivity dynamics of a firm-worker match as a potential explanation for the 'unemployment volatility puzzle'. We let new matches and continuing jobs differ in terms of productivity level and sensitivity to aggregate productivity shocks. As a result, new matches have a higher destruction rate and lower, but more volatile, wages than old matches, as new hires receive technology associated with the latest vintage. In our model, an aggregate productivity shock generates a persistent productivity difference between the two types of matches, creating an incentive to open new productive vacancies and to destroy old matches that are temporarily less productive. The model produces a well behaved Beveridge curve, despite endogenous job destruction and more volatile vacancies and unemployment, without needing to rely on differing wage setting mechanisms for new and continuing jobs.
Author : Radek Šauer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (756 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Inflation and GDP Growth in the Euro Area written by Radek Šauer and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nguyen Ngoc Thach
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 303077094X
Total Pages : 691 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (37 download)
Download or read book Prediction and Causality in Econometrics and Related Topics written by Nguyen Ngoc Thach and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-26 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides the ultimate goal of economic studies to predict how the economy develops—and what will happen if we implement different policies. To be able to do that, we need to have a good understanding of what causes what in economics. Prediction and causality in economics are the main topics of this book's chapters; they use both more traditional and more innovative techniques—including quantum ideas -- to make predictions about the world economy (international trade, exchange rates), about a country's economy (gross domestic product, stock index, inflation rate), and about individual enterprises, banks, and micro-finance institutions: their future performance (including the risk of bankruptcy), their stock prices, and their liquidity. Several papers study how COVID-19 has influenced the world economy. This book helps practitioners and researchers to learn more about prediction and causality in economics -- and to further develop this important research direction.
