Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire
Download Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Development of a Forecasting Model to Predict the Downturn and Upturn of a Real Estate Market in the Inland Empire by : Thomas F. Flynn
Download or read book Development of a Forecasting Model to Predict the Downturn and Upturn of a Real Estate Market in the Inland Empire written by Thomas F. Flynn and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amidst the dramatic real estate fluctuations in the first decade of the twenty-first century, this study recognized that there is a necessity to create a real estate prediction model for future real estate ventures and prevention of losses such as the mortgage meltdown and housing bust. This real estate prediction model study sought to reinstall the integrity into the American building and development industry, which was tarnished by the sudden emergence of various publications offering get-rich-quick schemes. In the fast-paced and competitive world of lending and real estate development, it is becoming more complex to combine current and evolving factors into a profitable business model. This prediction model correlated past real estate cycle pinpoints to economical driving forces in order to create an ongoing formula. The study used a descriptive, secondary interpretation of raw data already available. Quarterly data was taken from the study's seven independent variables over a 24-year span from 1985 to 2009 to examine the correlation over two real estate cycles. Public information from 97 quarters (1985-2009) was also gathered on seven topics: consumer confidence, loan origination volume, construction employment statistics, migration, GDP, inflation, and interest rates. The Null hypothesis underwent a test of variance at a .05 level of significance. Multiple regression analysis uncovered that four of seven variables have correlated and could predict movement in real estate cycle evidence from previous data, based in the Inland Empire. GDP, interest rates, loan origination volume, and inflation were the four economical driving variables that completed the Inland Empire's real estate prediction model and global test. Findings from this study certify that there is correlation between economical driving factors and the real estate cycle. These correlations illustrate patterns and trends, which can become a prediction model using statistics. By interpreting and examining the data, this study believes that the prediction model is best utilized through pinpointing an exact numerical location by running calculations through the established global equation, and recommends further research and regular update of quarterly trends and movements in the real estate cycle and specific variables in the formula.
Book Synopsis Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China by : Zan Yang
Download or read book Housing Affordability and Housing Policy in Urban China written by Zan Yang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-01-25 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of housing affordability under the economic reforms and social transformations in urban China. It also offers an overall review of the current government measures on the housing market and affordable housing policies in China. By introducing a dynamic affordability approach and residual income approach, the book allows us to capture the size of the affordability gap more accurately, to better identify policy targets, and to assess the effectiveness of current public policy. The unique database on urban household surveys and regional information on affordable housing projects serve to strengthen the analysis. The book offers theoretical and empirical insights for in-depth affordability studies and helps readers to understand the social impacts of market reforms and the role of government on the Chinese housing market.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by : James H. Stock
Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Book Synopsis Forecasting for Economics and Business by : Gloria González-Rivera
Download or read book Forecasting for Economics and Business written by Gloria González-Rivera and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-05 with total page 749 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art by : Elia Xacapyr
Download or read book Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art written by Elia Xacapyr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
Book Synopsis Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era by : John E. Silvia
Download or read book Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era written by John E. Silvia and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-12-14 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :520 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (121 download)
Book Synopsis To Examine the Current Condition of the U.S. Banking Industry and Projections for the Bank Insurance Fund by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs
Download or read book To Examine the Current Condition of the U.S. Banking Industry and Projections for the Bank Insurance Fund written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts by : Sophia Chen
Download or read book Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Sophia Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-23 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.
Book Synopsis Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting by : Chris Brooks
Download or read book Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting written by Chris Brooks and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As real estate forms a significant part of the asset portfolios of most investors and lenders, it is crucial that analysts and institutions employ sound techniques for modelling and forecasting the performance of real estate assets. Assuming no prior knowledge of econometrics, this book introduces and explains a broad range of quantitative techniques that are relevant for the analysis of real estate data. It includes numerous detailed examples, giving readers the confidence they need to estimate and interpret their own models. Throughout, the book emphasises how various statistical techniques may be used for forecasting and shows how forecasts can be evaluated. Written by a highly experienced teacher of econometrics and a senior real estate professional, both of whom are widely known for their research, Real Estate Modelling and Forecasting is the first book to provide a practical introduction to the econometric analysis of real estate for students and practitioners.
Book Synopsis Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning by : Marijn A. Bolhuis
Download or read book Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-28 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use several machine learning models to predict real output growth with lower forecast errors than traditional models. By combining multiple machine learning models into ensembles, we lower forecast errors even further. We also identify measures of variable importance to help improve the transparency of machine learning-based forecasts. Applying the framework to Turkey reduces forecast errors by at least 30 percent relative to traditional models. The framework also better predicts economic volatility, suggesting that machine learning techniques could be an important part of the macro forecasting toolkit of many countries.
Book Synopsis Forecasting With The Theta Method by : Kostas I. Nikolopoulos
Download or read book Forecasting With The Theta Method written by Kostas I. Nikolopoulos and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-12-28 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting – one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method – Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R – open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development.
Book Synopsis Forecasts in Times of Crises by : Theo S. Eicher
Download or read book Forecasts in Times of Crises written by Theo S. Eicher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
Book Synopsis Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points by : Rendigs Fels
Download or read book Forecasting and Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points written by Rendigs Fels and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 2-part assessment of research methods in respect of forecasting periods of economic recession and economic growth, with particular reference to the USA - comprises (1) an investigation of problems in economic research of forecasting and recognising business cycle peaks and troughs, and (2) an evaluation of the performance of the federal open market committee of the u.s.a. In anticipating and recognising 7 cyclical turns since the 2nd world war. References.
Book Synopsis A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting by : Inada Yoshihisa
Download or read book A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting written by Inada Yoshihisa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-03-07 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume investigates the accuracy and dynamic performance of a high-frequency forecast model for the Japanese and United States economies based on the Current Quarter Model (CQM) or High Frequency Model (HFM) developed by the late Professor Emeritus Lawrence R. Klein. It also presents a survey of recent developments in high-frequency forecasts and gives an example application of the CQM model in forecasting Gross Regional Products (GRPs). Contents: Introduction: Background to a High-Frequency Model Forecast (Yoshihisa Inada) A Survey of Flash Data and Nowcasting in Japan (Nariyasu Yamasawa) The Development of the Japanese CQM and Examples of Its Dynamic Applications (Yoshihisa Inada) Utilization and Precision of the US Current Quarter Model (Yuzo Kumasaka) Using the High-Frequency Forecast Method to Estimate Local Government GRP (Ryoh Ogawa) Nationwide Development of Preliminary Estimates of Local Government GRPs (Hajime Watabe) Readership: Advance postgraduates and researchers studying high frequency model forecasting. Keywords: Current Quarter Model;High Frequency Model;Lawrence R Klein;Gross Regional Products;ForecastingReview:0
Download or read book Forecasting written by David Hendry and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-11 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Book Synopsis Forecasting for Business by : Douglas Wood
Download or read book Forecasting for Business written by Douglas Wood and published by Longman Publishing Group. This book was released on 1976 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Management development guide on the close relationship between management forecasting and decision making - focuses on forecasting techniques, (notably statistical analysis, linear programming and network analysis), and presents applications to specific forecasting problems (benchmark forecasting, causal models, economic forecasting for the UK, etc.). Graphs, references and statistical tables.
Download or read book Forecasting written by William Ascher and published by . This book was released on 1978-02-17 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Forecasting is a new, and still changing field. One of the most important factors in the relationships between method and result is that core assumptions are more important than sophisticated techniques; improved technique does not compensate for faulty assumptions. Forecasting is still an art and one that is difficult to master. The uses of forecasting can be so varied, and applied to so many different disciplines, that it's worth making the effort. The appraisal of forecasts and the choice of the "most likely" from a group focusing on the same area is also a type of forecasting.
