Author : Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475594771
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Demographic Changes in Latin America by : Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
Download or read book Demographic Changes in Latin America written by Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-13 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.