Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781138115095
Total Pages : 538 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information by : Efstratios Nikolaidis

Download or read book Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-06-16 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.

Analysis and Design of Marine Structures V

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1315685051
Total Pages : 814 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (156 download)

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Book Synopsis Analysis and Design of Marine Structures V by : C. Guedes Soares

Download or read book Analysis and Design of Marine Structures V written by C. Guedes Soares and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-03-11 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analysis and Design of Marine Structures V contains the papers presented at MARSTRUCT 2015, the 5th International Conference on Marine Structures (Southampton, UK, 25-27 March 2015). The MARSTRUCT series of conferences started in Glasgow, UK in 2007, the second event of the series took place in Lisbon, Portugal (2009), while the third was in Hambur

Design Decisions under Uncertainty with Limited Information

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0203834984
Total Pages : 540 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Design Decisions under Uncertainty with Limited Information by : Efstratios Nikolaidis

Download or read book Design Decisions under Uncertainty with Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-02-18 with total page 540 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker‘s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a

Decision Based Design

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1482228386
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (822 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Based Design by : Vijitashwa Pandey

Download or read book Decision Based Design written by Vijitashwa Pandey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-08-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a presentation that formalizes what makes up decision based design, Decision Based Design defines the major concepts that go into product realization. It presents all major concepts in design decision making in an integrated way and covers the fundamentals of decision analysis in engineering design. It also trains engineers to understand the imp

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Fuzzy Preference Ordering of Interval Numbers in Decision Problems

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540899146
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (48 download)

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Book Synopsis Fuzzy Preference Ordering of Interval Numbers in Decision Problems by : Atanu Sengupta

Download or read book Fuzzy Preference Ordering of Interval Numbers in Decision Problems written by Atanu Sengupta and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-03-13 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In conventional mathematical programming, coefficients of problems are usually determined by the experts as crisp values in terms of classical mathematical reasoning. But in reality, in an imprecise and uncertain environment, it will be utmost unrealistic to assume that the knowledge and representation of an expert can come in a precise way. The wider objective of the book is to study different real decision situations where problems are defined in inexact environment. Inexactness are mainly generated in two ways – (1) due to imprecise perception and knowledge of the human expert followed by vague representation of knowledge as a DM; (2) due to huge-ness and complexity of relations and data structure in the definition of the problem situation. We use interval numbers to specify inexact or imprecise or uncertain data. Consequently, the study of a decision problem requires answering the following initial questions: How should we compare and define preference ordering between two intervals?, interpret and deal inequality relations involving interval coefficients?, interpret and make way towards the goal of the decision problem? The present research work consists of two closely related fields: approaches towards defining a generalized preference ordering scheme for interval attributes and approaches to deal with some issues having application potential in many areas of decision making.

Marine Design XIII, Volume 1

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429803311
Total Pages : 664 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (298 download)

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Book Synopsis Marine Design XIII, Volume 1 by : Pentti Kujala

Download or read book Marine Design XIII, Volume 1 written by Pentti Kujala and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-06-04 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is volume 1 of a 2-volume set. Marine Design XIII collects the contributions to the 13th International Marine Design Conference (IMDC 2018, Espoo, Finland, 10-14 June 2018). The aim of this IMDC series of conferences is to promote all aspects of marine design as an engineering discipline. The focus is on key design challenges and opportunities in the area of current maritime technologies and markets, with special emphasis on: • Challenges in merging ship design and marine applications of experience-based industrial design • Digitalisation as technological enabler for stronger link between efficient design, operations and maintenance in future • Emerging technologies and their impact on future designs • Cruise ship and icebreaker designs including fleet compositions to meet new market demands To reflect on the conference focus, Marine Design XIII covers the following research topic series: •State of art ship design principles - education, design methodology, structural design, hydrodynamic design; •Cutting edge ship designs and operations - ship concept design, risk and safety, arctic design, autonomous ships; •Energy efficiency and propulsions - energy efficiency, hull form design, propulsion equipment design; •Wider marine designs and practices - navy ships, offshore and wind farms and production. Marine Design XIII contains 2 state-of-the-art reports on design methodologies and cruise ships design, and 4 keynote papers on new directions for vessel design practices and tools, digital maritime traffic, naval ship designs, and new tanker design for arctic. Marine Design XIII will be of interest to academics and professionals in maritime technologies and marine design.

Decision-Based Design

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1447140362
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (471 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision-Based Design by : Wei Chen

Download or read book Decision-Based Design written by Wei Chen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-08-22 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the fundamental principles of decision theory, Decision-Based Design: Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design presents an analytical approach to enterprise-driven Decision-Based Design (DBD) as a rigorous framework for decision making in engineering design. Once the related fundamentals of decision theory, economic analysis, and econometrics modelling are established, the remaining chapters describe the entire process, the associated analytical techniques, and the design case studies for integrating consumer preference modeling into the enterprise-driven DBD framework. Methods for identifying key attributes, optimal design of human appraisal experiments, data collection, data analysis, and demand model estimation are presented and illustrated using engineering design case studies. The scope of the chapters also provides: A rigorous framework of integrating the interests from both producer and consumers in engineering design, Analytical techniques of consumer choice modelling to forecast the impact of engineering decisions, Methods for synthesizing business and engineering models in multidisciplinary design environments, and Examples of effective application of Decision-Based Design supported by case studies. No matter whether you are an engineer facing decisions in consumer related product design, an instructor or student of engineering design, or a researcher exploring the role of decision making and consumer choice modelling in design, Decision-Based Design: Integrating Consumer Preferences into Engineering Design provides a reliable reference over a range of key topics.

Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319622145
Total Pages : 167 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity by : Joe Lorkowski

Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity written by Joe Lorkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-01 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.

Interval Timing and Time-Based Decision Making

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Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 288919034X
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (891 download)

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Book Synopsis Interval Timing and Time-Based Decision Making by : Warren H. Meck

Download or read book Interval Timing and Time-Based Decision Making written by Warren H. Meck and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The perception of time is crucial for everyday activities from the sleep–wake cycle to playing and appreciating music, verbal communication, to the determination of the value of a particular behavior. With regard to the last point, making decisions is heavily influenced by the duration of the various options, the duration of the expected delays for receiving the options, and the time constraints for making a choice. Recent advances suggest that the brain represents time in a distributed manner and reflects time as a result of temporal changes in network states and/or by the coincidence detection of the phase of different neural populations. Moreover, intrinsic oscillatory properties of neural circuits could determine timed motor responses. This Research Topic, partly an emergence of a Satellite EBBS meeting sponsored by the COST-Action TIMELY, will discuss how time in the physical world is reconstructed, distorted and modified in brain networks by emotion, learning and neuropathology. This Research Topic on Timing contains up-to-date reviews regarding the relationship between time and decision-making with respect to the underlying psychological and physiological mechanisms responsible for anticipation and evaluation processes.

Decision Sciences

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351727400
Total Pages : 936 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Sciences by : Raghu Nandan Sengupta

Download or read book Decision Sciences written by Raghu Nandan Sengupta and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-11-30 with total page 936 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is an endeavour to cover many current, relevant, and essential topics related to decision sciences in a scientific manner. Using this handbook, graduate students, researchers, as well as practitioners from engineering, statistics, sociology, economics, etc. will find a new and refreshing paradigm shift as to how these topics can be put to use beneficially. Starting from the basics to advanced concepts, authors hope to make the readers well aware of the different theoretical and practical ideas, which are the focus of study in decision sciences nowadays. It includes an excellent bibliography/reference/journal list, information about a variety of datasets, illustrated pseudo-codes, and discussion of future trends in research. Covering topics ranging from optimization, networks and games, multi-objective optimization, inventory theory, statistical methods, artificial neural networks, times series analysis, simulation modeling, decision support system, data envelopment analysis, queueing theory, etc., this reference book is an attempt to make this area more meaningful for varied readers. Noteworthy features of this handbook are in-depth coverage of different topics, solved practical examples, unique datasets for a variety of examples in the areas of decision sciences, in-depth analysis of problems through colored charts, 3D diagrams, and discussions about software.

Design Optimization Under Uncertainty

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031492080
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (314 download)

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Book Synopsis Design Optimization Under Uncertainty by : Weifei Hu

Download or read book Design Optimization Under Uncertainty written by Weifei Hu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-12-22 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces the fundamentals of probability, statistical, and reliability concepts, the classical methods of uncertainty quantification and analytical reliability analysis, and the state-of-the-art approaches of design optimization under uncertainty (e.g., reliability-based design optimization and robust design optimization). The topics include basic concepts of probability and distributions, uncertainty quantification using probabilistic methods, classical reliability analysis methods, time-variant reliability analysis methods, fundamentals of deterministic design optimization, reliability-based design optimization, robust design optimization, other methods of design optimization under uncertainty, and engineering applications of design optimization under uncertainty.

Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0203938526
Total Pages : 670 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (39 download)

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Book Synopsis Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties by : Yannis Tsompanakis

Download or read book Structural Design Optimization Considering Uncertainties written by Yannis Tsompanakis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-02-07 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fi

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Applications of Fuzzy Sets Theory

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 354073399X
Total Pages : 708 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Applications of Fuzzy Sets Theory by : Francesco Masulli

Download or read book Applications of Fuzzy Sets Theory written by Francesco Masulli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-29 with total page 708 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 7th International Workshop on Fuzzy Logic and Applications, held in Camogli, Italy in July 2007, presented the latest findings in the field. This volume features the refereed proceedings from that meeting. It includes 84 full papers as well as three keynote speeches. The papers are organized into topical sections covering fuzzy set theory, fuzzy information access and retrieval, fuzzy machine learning, and fuzzy architectures and systems.

Interval target-based VIKOR method supported on interval distance and preference degree for machine selection

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Author :
Publisher : Infinite Study
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 13 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Interval target-based VIKOR method supported on interval distance and preference degree for machine selection by : Arian Hafezalkotob

Download or read book Interval target-based VIKOR method supported on interval distance and preference degree for machine selection written by Arian Hafezalkotob and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By considering target values for attributes in addition to beneficial and non-beneficial attributes, a traditional MADM technique is converted to a comprehensive form. In many machine selection problems, some attributes have given target values.

A Parameter Reduction-Based Decision-Making Method with Interval-Valued Neutrosophic Soft Sets for the Selection of Bionic Thin-Wall Structures

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Author :
Publisher : Infinite Study
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A Parameter Reduction-Based Decision-Making Method with Interval-Valued Neutrosophic Soft Sets for the Selection of Bionic Thin-Wall Structures by : Honghao Zhang

Download or read book A Parameter Reduction-Based Decision-Making Method with Interval-Valued Neutrosophic Soft Sets for the Selection of Bionic Thin-Wall Structures written by Honghao Zhang and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on 2024-01-01 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bio-inspired thin-wall structures with excellent mechanical properties, high-energy absorption capabilities, and a desirable lightweight level have been extensively applied to the passive safety protection of transportation and aerospace. Collaboration matching and the selection of optional structures with different bionic principles considering the multiple attribute evaluation index and engineering preference information have become an urgent problem. This paper proposes a parameter reduction-based indifference threshold-based attribute ratio analysis method under an interval-valued neutrosophic soft set (IVNS-SOFT) to obtain the weight vector of an evaluation indicator system for the selection of bionic thin-wall structures, which can avoid the problem of an inadequate subjective evaluation and reduce redundant parameters. An IVNS-SOFT-based multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method is proposed to obtain an optimal alternative, which can quantify uncertainty explicitly and handle the uncertain and inconsistent information prevalent in the expert system. Subsequently, an application of five bio-inspired thin-wall structures is applied to demonstrate that this proposed method is valid and practical. Comparative analysis, sensitivity analysis, and discussion are conducted in this research. The results show that this study provides an effective tool for the selection of bionic thin-wall structures.