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Current Account Reversals
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Book Synopsis Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-06-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.
Book Synopsis Current Account Reversals by : Barry J. Eichengreen
Download or read book Current Account Reversals written by Barry J. Eichengreen and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Using panel data and case studies, we analyze the pre-1970 history of international capital flows and current account reversals. Considering a sample of emerging markets and advanced economies with per capita GDPs at least 60 per cent those of the lead country, we show that the incidence of reversals has been unusually great in recent years. The only prior period that matched the last three decades in terms of the frequency and magnitude of reversals was the 1920s and 1930s, decades notorious for the instability of capital flows. In contrast, reversals were both less common and smaller in the Bretton Woods and pre-World War I gold standard eras"--NBER website
Book Synopsis Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises by : Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.
Book Synopsis Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops written by Sebastian Edwards and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this paper I analyze the anatomy of current account adjustments in the world economy during the last three decades. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Major reversals in current account deficits have tended to be associated to sudden stops' of capital inflows. (b) The probability of a country experiencing a reversal is captured by a small number of variables that include the (lagged) current account to GDP ratio, the external debt to GDP ratio, the level of international reserves, domestic credit creation, and debt services. (c) Current account reversals have had a negative effect on real growth that goes beyond their direct effect on investments. (d) There is persuasive evidence indicating that the negative effect of current account reversals on growth will depend on the country's degree of openness. More open countries will suffer less in terms of lower growth than countries with a lower degree of openness. (e) I was unable to find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries with a higher degree of dollarization are more severely affected by current account reversals than countries with a lower degree of dollarization. And, (f) the empirical analysis suggests that countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes are able to accommodate the shocks stemming from a reversal better than countries with more rigid exchange rate regime"--NBER website
Book Synopsis Current account reversals and currency crises by : Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current account reversals and currency crises written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals? by : Matteo Bugamelli
Download or read book Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals? written by Matteo Bugamelli and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers' remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared with other private capital flows: these properties, combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies, might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets and developing economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment. The authors find that remittances can have such a beneficial effect. In particular, they show that a high level of remittances, as a ratio of GDP, makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves (over GDP) and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent. The same occurs, though less neatly, for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt (over GDP) and the probability of current account reversals. The results point also to a threshold effect of remittances: the mechanisms just described are, in fact, much stronger when remittances are above 3 percent of GDP.
Book Synopsis Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals written by Sebastian Edwards and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this paper I use a panel data set to investigate the mechanics of sudden stops of capital inflows and current account reversals. I am particularly interested in four questions: (a) What is the relationship between sudden stops and current account reversals? (b) To what extent does financial openness affect the probability of a country being subject to a current account reversal? In other words, do restrictions on capital mobility reduce the probability of such occurrences? (C) Does openness n both trade openness and financial openness n play a role in determining the effect of current account reversals on economic performance (i.e. GDP growth)? And, (d) does the exchange rate regime affect the intensity with which reversals affect real activity? The empirical analysis shows that sudden stops and current account reversals have been closely related. The econometric analysis suggests that restricting capital mobility does not reduce the probability of experiencing a reversal. Current account reversals, in turn, have had a negative effect on real growth that goes beyond their direct effect on investment. The regression analysis indicates that the negative effects of current account reversals on growth will depend on the country's degree of trade openness: More open countries will suffer less n in terms of lower growth relative to trend n than countries with a lower degree of trade openness. On the other hand, the degree of financial openness does not appear to be related to the intensity with which reversals affect real economic performance. The empirical analysis also suggests that countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes are able to accommodate better shocks stemming from a reversal than countries with more rigid exchange rate regimes"--NBER website
Book Synopsis G7 Current Account Imbalances by : Richard H. Clarida
Download or read book G7 Current Account Imbalances written by Richard H. Clarida and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.
Book Synopsis Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2002-11-15 with total page 782 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Book Synopsis Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-12-01 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies determinants and consequences of sharp reductions in current account imbalances (reversals) in low- and middle-income countries. It poses two questions: what triggers reversals, and what factors explain how costly reversals are? It finds that both domestic variables, such as the current account balance, openness to trade, and the level of reserves, and external variables, such as terms of trade shocks, U.S. real interest rates, and growth in industrial countries, seem to play important roles in explaining reversals in current account imbalances. It also finds some evidence that countries with a less appreciated real exchange rate, higher investment, and more openness before the reversal tend to grow faster after a reversal occurs.
Book Synopsis Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020 by : World Bank
Download or read book Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-12-23 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the biennial Poverty and Shared Prosperity report brings sobering news. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its associated economic crisis, compounded by the effects of armed conflict and climate change, are reversing hard-won gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The fight to end poverty has suffered its worst setback in decades after more than 20 years of progress. The goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030, already at risk before the pandemic, is now beyond reach in the absence of swift, significant, and sustained action, and the objective of advancing shared prosperity—raising the incomes of the poorest 40 percent in each country—will be much more difficult. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune presents new estimates of COVID-19's impacts on global poverty and shared prosperity. Harnessing fresh data from frontline surveys and economic simulations, it shows that pandemic-related job losses and deprivation worldwide are hitting already poor and vulnerable people hard, while also shifting the profile of global poverty to include millions of 'new poor.' Original analysis included in the report shows that the new poor are more urban, better educated, and less likely to work in agriculture than those living in extreme poverty before COVID-19. It also gives new estimates of the impact of conflict and climate change, and how they overlap. These results are important for targeting policies to safeguard lives and livelihoods. It shows how some countries are acting to reverse the crisis, protect those most vulnerable, and promote a resilient recovery. These findings call for urgent action. If the global response fails the world's poorest and most vulnerable people now, the losses they have experienced to date will be minimal compared with what lies ahead. Success over the long term will require much more than stopping COVID-19. As efforts to curb the disease and its economic fallout intensify, the interrupted development agenda in low- and middle-income countries must be put back on track. Recovering from today's reversals of fortune requires tackling the economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 with a commitment proportional to the crisis itself. In doing so, countries can also plant the seeds for dealing with the long-term development challenges of promoting inclusive growth, capital accumulation, and risk prevention—particularly the risks of conflict and climate change.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics for Professionals by : Leslie Lipschitz
Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Book Synopsis Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals written by Sebastian Edwards and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finds that although there is no relationship between capital mobility and the likelihood of a country experiencing an economic recession, countries with high mobility will experience a greater decline in economic growth if a crisis does occur.
Book Synopsis Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth by : Lubos Komarek
Download or read book Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth written by Lubos Komarek and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Credit Reversals by : Mr. Francisco F. Vazquez
Download or read book Credit Reversals written by Mr. Francisco F. Vazquez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-23 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity—credit reversals. Using data for 179 countries during 1960‒2017, the paper finds that reversals are a relatively common phenomenon--on average, they occur every five years. By comparison, banking crises take place every eight years on average. Credit reversals and banking crises also appear related to each other: reversals become more likely in the aftermath of banking crises, while the likelihood of crises drops following reversals. In terms of foregone economic activity, reversals are shown to be very costly, at about two-thirds of the costs of banking crises after taking into account their relative frequencies.
Author :Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti Publisher :International Finance Section Princeton University Internati ISBN 13 : Total Pages :90 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (129 download)
Book Synopsis Current-account Sustainability by : Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Download or read book Current-account Sustainability written by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Finance Section Princeton University Internati. This book was released on 1996 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents a notion of current-account sustainability that explicitly considers, in addition to intertemporal solvency, a willingness to pay and to lend. It argues that this notion of sustainability provides a useful framework for understanding the variety of country experiences with protracted current-account imbalances. Based on this notion, the authors identify a number of potential sustainability indicators related to the structure of the economy and the economic policy stance. They use these indicators in the evaluation of the experience of a number of countries that have run persistent current-account imbalances and ask whether they help to discriminate between countries that underwent an external crisis and those that did not.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
