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External Adjustment
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Book Synopsis External Adjustment by : Maurice Obstfeld
Download or read book External Adjustment written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Book Synopsis Friedman Redux by : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Download or read book Friedman Redux written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-08 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Milton Friedman argued that flexible exchange rates would facilitate external adjustment. Recent studies find surprisingly little robust evidence that they do. We argue that this is because they use composite (or aggregate) exchange rate regime classifications, which often mask very heterogeneous bilateral relationships between countries. Constructing a novel dataset of bilateral exchange rate regimes that differentiates by the degree of exchange rate flexibility, as well as by direct and indirect exchange rate relationships, for 181 countries over 1980–2011, we find a significant and empirically robust relationship between exchange rate flexibility and the speed of external adjustment. Our results are supported by several “natural experiments” of exogenous changes in bilateral exchange rate regimes.
Book Synopsis Revisiting Japan's External Adjustment Since 1985 by : Mr.Guy Meredith
Download or read book Revisiting Japan's External Adjustment Since 1985 written by Mr.Guy Meredith and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-06-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The factors that explain Japan’s external performance since the mid-1980s are controversial. While the current account surplus eventually declined following exchange rate changes in 1985-86, a widening since 1990 has led to renewed scepticism about the role of relative price movements in bringing about external adjustment. This paper revisits the post-1985 experience to determine whether it can be explained by traditional factors. The results indicate that, over the period as a whole, the behavior of trade volumes and prices was similar to that predicted by traditional relationships. In particular, relative price movements played an important role in reducing the surplus: in their absence, it would have widened further.
Book Synopsis Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-13 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about 1⁄2 of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.
Book Synopsis The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment by : Camila Casas
Download or read book The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-11 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide evidence of a new channel through which exchange rates affect trade. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits firms’ maturity structure of foreign currency debt around a large depreciation in Colombia, we show that firms experiencing a stronger debt revaluation of dominant currency debt due to a home currency depreciation compress imports relatively more while exports are unaffected. Dominant currency financing does not lead to an import compression for firms that export, hold foreign currency assets, or are active in the foreign exchange derivatives markets, as they are all hedged against a revaluation of their debt. These findings can be rationalized through the prism of a model with costly state verification and foreign currency borrowing. Quantitatively, the dominant currency financing channel explains a significant part of the external adjustment process in addition to the expenditure switching channel. Pricing exports in the dominant currency, instead of the producer’s currency, mutes the effect of dominant currency financing on trade flows.
Book Synopsis External Adjustment in Oil Exporters by : Mr.Alberto Behar
Download or read book External Adjustment in Oil Exporters written by Mr.Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-06-08 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters (including the Gulf Cooperation Council), a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.
Book Synopsis Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics by : Mr.Joong S Kang
Download or read book Progress Towards External Adjustment in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics written by Mr.Joong S Kang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-22 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.
Book Synopsis Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter? by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Global Value Chains and External Adjustment: Do Exchange Rates Still Matter? written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-27 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater integration into international value chains reduces the exchange rate elasticity of gross trade volumes. This result holds both in the short and medium term, pointing to the rigidity of value chains. At the same time, greater value chain integration is associated with larger gross trade flows, relative to GDP, which tends to amplify the effect of exchange rate movements. Overall, combining these two results suggests that, for most countries, integration into global value chains does not materially alter the working of exchange rates and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility in facilitating external adjustment remain.
Book Synopsis The Monetary Approach to External Adjustment by : Giuseppe Tullio
Download or read book The Monetary Approach to External Adjustment written by Giuseppe Tullio and published by Springer. This book was released on 1981-06-18 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis External Adjustment and the Strong Yen by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book External Adjustment and the Strong Yen written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-08-09 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The parameters of a conventional model of Japan’s current account were found to be stable in the period of the steeply rising yen between the fourth quarter of 1985 and the end of 1987. This suggests that Japan’s current account has been adjusting to the strengthening yen in accordance with established historical relationships—a conclusion that is substantiated by the model’s reasonably accurate tracking of the current account in this period. Furthermore, simulations of the model show that the rise in the yen has already made a substantial contribution to correcting Japan’s external imbalance.
Book Synopsis Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis by : Mr.Philip R. Lane
Download or read book Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis written by Mr.Philip R. Lane and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-12 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.
Book Synopsis Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment by : Gustavo Adler
Download or read book Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-20 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The extensive use of the US dollar when firms set prices for international trade (dubbed dominant currency pricing) and in their funding (dominant currency financing) has come to the forefront of policy debate, raising questions about how exchange rates work and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility. This Staff Discussion Note documents these features of international trade and finance and explores their implications for how exchange rates can help external rebalancing and buffer macroeconomic shocks.
Book Synopsis External Adjustment and the Optimal Demand for International Reserves by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book External Adjustment and the Optimal Demand for International Reserves written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-10-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a theoretical underpinning for the major determinants of optimal reserve demand in the case where fundamental disequilibrium constitutes a key element governing reserve management. Emphasis is given to the role of reserves to smooth the process of economic adjustment by financing part of external disequilibrium, as well as to meet temporary random fluctuations in the excess demand for foreign exchange. The analysis incorporates this financing aspect of reserve holdings into a simple inventory model and discusses the optimal stock of reserves in the context of the optimal mix of adjustment and financing.
Book Synopsis The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel Or Vulnerability Amplifier? by : Mr. Alberto Behar
Download or read book The Current Account Income Balance: External Adjustment Channel Or Vulnerability Amplifier? written by Mr. Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In terms of size, the net income balance (IB) is comparable to the trade balance (TB) for many countries. Yet the role of the IB in mitigating external vulnerabilities or complicating external adjustment remains underexplored. This paper studies the role of the IB in stabilizing or destabilizing the current account over the cycle and in crises. Our results show that, due to a negative correlation with the TB, the IB significantly dampens the time series volatility of the current account for most countries. However, the IB generally does not improve during crisis episodes, so current account adjustment occurs entirely through improvements in the TB. The paper also estimates IB semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate (ER). Semi-elasticities are small for most countries, so the IB is generally not a significant channel through which the ER stabilizes the current account, and trade-based semi-elasticities are, with some important exceptions, good proxies for current account semi-elasticities used in external sector assessments.
Book Synopsis External Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Papua New Guinea by : Ryota Nakatani
Download or read book External Adjustment in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Papua New Guinea written by Ryota Nakatani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should resource-rich economies handle the balance of payments adjustment required after commodity price declines? This paper addresses the question theoretically by developing a simple two-period multi-sector model based on Nakatani (2016) to compare different exchange rate policies, and empirically by estimating elasticities of imports and commodity exports with respect to exchange rates using Papua New Guinean data. In the empirical part, using various econometric methods, I find the statistically significant elasticities of commodity exports to real exchange rates. In the theoretical part, by introducing the notion of a shadow exchange rate premium, I show how the rationing of foreign exchange reduces consumer welfare. Using the estimated elasticities and theoretical outcomes, I further discuss policy implications for resource-rich countries with a focus on Papua New Guinea.
Author :United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Foreign Policy Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :160 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (319 download)
Book Synopsis U.S. foreign trade: the internal and external adjustment mechanisms. September 29, 30 and October 1, 1970 by : United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Foreign Policy
Download or read book U.S. foreign trade: the internal and external adjustment mechanisms. September 29, 30 and October 1, 1970 written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Foreign Policy and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis G7 Current Account Imbalances by : Richard H. Clarida
Download or read book G7 Current Account Imbalances written by Richard H. Clarida and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.
