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Creating A Smart Conditional Consensus Forecast
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Book Synopsis Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a smart consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst's overall ability in forecasting all statistics.
Book Synopsis Creating a Smarter Conditional Consensus Forecast by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book Creating a Smarter Conditional Consensus Forecast written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics over the August 1998 to March 2007 time period. We pose four research questions: (1) Does forecast accuracy persist?; (2) What are the determinants of such persistence?; (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus?; and (4) Is a quot;smartquot; consensus based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? We show that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term, past accuracy and the overall ability in forecasting all statistics. That is, analyst long-term track record is more important than short-term track record, and track record in forecasting other statistics (general ability) is more important than track record in forecasting the macroeconomic statistic in question (specific ability). We demonstrate that a smart consensus conditioned on forecasts of analysts with superior long-term, general ability outperforms commonly reported mean and median consensus forecasts.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Sebastian Gell
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Book Synopsis Proceedings of MAC-MME 2016 by : group of authors
Download or read book Proceedings of MAC-MME 2016 written by group of authors and published by MAC Prague consulting. This book was released on 2016-12-07 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conference proceedings - Multidisciplinary Academic Conference on Management, Marketing and Economics, Czech Republic, Prague (MAC-MME 2016)
Download or read book Business Periodicals Index written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 2386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Co-Opetition by : Adam M. Brandenburger
Download or read book Co-Opetition written by Adam M. Brandenburger and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now available in paperback, with an all new Reader's guide, The New York Times and Business Week bestseller Co-opetition revolutionized the game of business. With over 40,000 copies sold and now in its 9th printing, Co-opetition is a business strategy that goes beyond the old rules of competition and cooperation to combine the advantages of both. Co-opetition is a pioneering, high profit means of leveraging business relationships. Intel, Nintendo, American Express, NutraSweet, American Airlines, and dozens of other companies have been using the strategies of co-opetition to change the game of business to their benefit. Formulating strategies based on game theory, authors Brandenburger and Nalebuff created a book that's insightful and instructive for managers eager to move their companies into a new mind set.
Book Synopsis Advances in Intelligent Computing Techniques and Applications by : Faisal Saeed
Download or read book Advances in Intelligent Computing Techniques and Applications written by Faisal Saeed and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Smart Cities Policies and Financing by : John R. Vacca
Download or read book Smart Cities Policies and Financing written by John R. Vacca and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-01-19 with total page 642 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Smart Cities Policies and Financing: Approaches and Solutions is the definitive professional reference for harnessing the full potential of policy making and financial planning in smart cities. It covers the effective tools for capturing the dynamic relations between people, policies, financing, and environments, and where they are most often useful and effective for all relevant stakeholders. The book examines the key role of science, technology, and innovation (STI) - especially in information and communications technologies - in the design, development, and management of smart cities policies and financing. It identifies the problems and offers practical solutions in implementation of smart infrastructure policies and financing. Smart Cities Policies and Financing is also about how the implementation of smart infrastructure projects (related to the challenges of the lack of financing and the application of suitable policies) underlines the key roles of science, technology and innovation (STI) communities in addressing these challenges and provides key policies and financing that will help guide the design and development of smart cities. Brings together experts from academia, government and industry to offer state-of- the-art solutions for improving the lives of billions of people in cities around the globe Creates awareness among governments of the various policy tools available, such as output-based contracting, public-private partnerships, procurement policies, long-term contracting, and targeted research funds in order to promote smart infrastructure implementation, and encouraging the use of such tools to shape markets for smart infrastructure and correct market failures Ensures the insclusiveness of smart city projects by adequately addressing the special needs of marginalized sections of society including the elderly, persons with disabilities, and inhabitants of informal settlements and informal sectors Ensures gender considerations in the design of smart cities and infrastructure through the use of data generated by smart systems to make cities safer and more responsive to the needs of women Demonstrate practical implementation through real-life case studies Enhances reader comprehension using learning aids such as hands-on exercises, checklists, chapter summaries, review questions, and an extensive appendix of additional resources
Book Synopsis Smart Engineering System Design by : Cihan H. Dagli
Download or read book Smart Engineering System Design written by Cihan H. Dagli and published by American Society of Mechanical Engineers. This book was released on 1999 with total page 1272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proceedings of the Artificial Neural Networks in Engineering Conference, November 5-8, 2000, St Louis, Missouri. The 179 papers compiled in this book focus on building smart components to engineering systems currently available. Topics discussed include: Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems, Complex Systems, Pattern Recognition, Smart Engineering Systems, Evolutionary Programming, Data Mining, Adaptive Control, and Biology and Medicine. Special tenth anniverary edition includes subject and author indices.
Book Synopsis Ecological Forecasting by : Michael C. Dietze
Download or read book Ecological Forecasting written by Michael C. Dietze and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online
Download or read book Blindsight written by Peter Watts and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2006-10-03 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hugo and Shirley Jackson award-winning Peter Watts stands on the cutting edge of hard SF with his acclaimed novel, Blindsight Two months since the stars fell... Two months of silence, while a world held its breath. Now some half-derelict space probe, sparking fitfully past Neptune's orbit, hears a whisper from the edge of the solar system: a faint signal sweeping the cosmos like a lighthouse beam. Whatever's out there isn't talking to us. It's talking to some distant star, perhaps. Or perhaps to something closer, something en route. So who do you send to force introductions with unknown and unknowable alien intellect that doesn't wish to be met? You send a linguist with multiple personalities, her brain surgically partitioned into separate, sentient processing cores. You send a biologist so radically interfaced with machinery that he sees x-rays and tastes ultrasound. You send a pacifist warrior in the faint hope she won't be needed. You send a monster to command them all, an extinct hominid predator once called vampire, recalled from the grave with the voodoo of recombinant genetics and the blood of sociopaths. And you send a synthesist—an informational topologist with half his mind gone—as an interface between here and there. Pray they can be trusted with the fate of a world. They may be more alien than the thing they've been sent to find. At the Publisher's request, this title is being sold without Digital Rights Management Software (DRM) applied.
Book Synopsis The Proceedings of the 2023 Conference on Systems Engineering Research by : Dinesh Verma
Download or read book The Proceedings of the 2023 Conference on Systems Engineering Research written by Dinesh Verma and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 686 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Migration Outlook 2014 by : OECD
Download or read book International Migration Outlook 2014 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2014-12-01 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication analyses recent developments in migration movements and policies in OECD countries and selected non-OECD countries. It also includes two special chapters on the skills of immigrants and their use in the labour market as well as on the management of labour migration.
Book Synopsis Interpretable Machine Learning by : Christoph Molnar
Download or read book Interpretable Machine Learning written by Christoph Molnar and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2020 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Book Synopsis Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Download or read book Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000-10-12 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.
Download or read book Smart cities written by Netexplo and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
