Covid By Numbers

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Author :
Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0241541085
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (415 download)

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Book Synopsis Covid By Numbers by : David Spiegelhalter

Download or read book Covid By Numbers written by David Spiegelhalter and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2021-10-07 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'I couldn't imagine a better guidebook for making sense of a tragic and momentous time in our lives. Covid by Numbers is comprehensive yet concise, impeccably clear and always humane' Tim Harford How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime? This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account. In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.

Coronavirus Politics

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Author :
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472902466
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (729 download)

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Book Synopsis Coronavirus Politics by : Scott L Greer

Download or read book Coronavirus Politics written by Scott L Greer and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2021-04-19 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: COVID-19 is the most significant global crisis of any of our lifetimes. The numbers have been stupefying, whether of infection and mortality, the scale of public health measures, or the economic consequences of shutdown. Coronavirus Politics identifies key threads in the global comparative discussion that continue to shed light on COVID-19 and shape debates about what it means for scholarship in health and comparative politics. Editors Scott L. Greer, Elizabeth J. King, Elize Massard da Fonseca, and André Peralta-Santos bring together over 30 authors versed in politics and the health issues in order to understand the health policy decisions, the public health interventions, the social policy decisions, their interactions, and the reasons. The book’s coverage is global, with a wide range of key and exemplary countries, and contains a mixture of comparative, thematic, and templated country studies. All go beyond reporting and monitoring to develop explanations that draw on the authors' expertise while engaging in structured conversations across the book.

Covid By Numbers

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Author :
Publisher : National Geographic Books
ISBN 13 : 0241541077
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (415 download)

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Book Synopsis Covid By Numbers by : David Spiegelhalter

Download or read book Covid By Numbers written by David Spiegelhalter and published by National Geographic Books. This book was released on 2023-06-27 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime? This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account. In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.

Covid-19 Unmasked: The News, The Science, And Common Sense

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Author :
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811233616
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)

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Book Synopsis Covid-19 Unmasked: The News, The Science, And Common Sense by : Winfried Just

Download or read book Covid-19 Unmasked: The News, The Science, And Common Sense written by Winfried Just and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-03-11 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can we keep up with the deluge of information about COVID-19 and tell which parts are most important and trustworthy?We read: 'Scientists recommend', 'Experts warn', 'A new model predicts'. How do scientific experts come up with their recommendations? What do their predictions really mean for us, for our friends, and our families?How can we make rational decisions? And how can we have sensible conversations about the pandemic when we disagree?These are the questions that this book is trying to address.It is written in the form of dialogues. Alice, a student of epidemiology, explains the science to three of her fellow students who have a lot of questions for her. The students have the same concerns that we all share to varying degrees: What the pandemic is doing to our health, our economy, and our cherished freedoms. In their conversations, they discover how the science relates to these questions.The book focuses on epidemiology, the science of how infections spread and how the spread can be mitigated. The science of how many infections can be prevented by certain kinds of actions. This is what we need to understand if we want to act wisely, as individuals and as a society.The author's goal is to help the reader think about the COVID-19 pandemic like an epidemiologist. About the various preventive measures, what they are trying to accomplish, what the obstacles are. About what is likely to be most effective in the long run at moderate economic and personal cost. About the likely consequences of personal decisions. About how to best protect oneself and others while allowing all of us to lead lives that are as close as possible to normal.While some chapters present slightly more advanced material than others, no scientific background is needed to follow the conversations. The technical concepts are explained in small steps and the occasional calculations in the book require only high-school mathematics.Related Link(s)

‘I Know Who Caused COVID-19’

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Author :
Publisher : Reaktion Books
ISBN 13 : 1789145074
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (891 download)

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Book Synopsis ‘I Know Who Caused COVID-19’ by : Zhou Xun

Download or read book ‘I Know Who Caused COVID-19’ written by Zhou Xun and published by Reaktion Books. This book was released on 2021-09-14 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fear has consequences, for individuals and for communities. And in times of stress, such as during epidemics, prejudices and primeval fear, always beneath the surface, can resurge to haunt us. In this book Zhou Xun and Sander L. Gilman examine how four groups have been blamed for causing or spreading the COVID-19 virus: the residents of Wuhan and Black African communities in China; Ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities in the USA, Britain and Israel; African Americans and the UK's BAME communities; and White right-wing groups in America and Europe. 'I Know Who Caused COVID-19' explores stereotyping and the false attribution of blame, as well as what happens when a collective is actually at fault, and how the community deals with these conflicting issues.--

Uncontrolled Spread

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Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 0063080028
Total Pages : 550 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncontrolled Spread by : Scott Gottlieb

Download or read book Uncontrolled Spread written by Scott Gottlieb and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2021-09-21 with total page 550 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “Uncontrolled Spread is everything you’d hope: a smart and insightful account of what happened and, currently, the best guide to what needs to be done to avoid a future pandemic." —Wall Street Journal “Informative and well paced.”—The Guardian “An intense ride through the pandemic with chilling details of what really happened. It is also sprinkled with notes of true wisdom that may help all of us better prepare for the future.”—Sanjay Gupta, MD, chief medical correspondent, CNN Physician and former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb asks: Has America’s COVID-19 catastrophe taught us anything? In Uncontrolled Spread, he shows how the coronavirus and its variants were able to trounce America’s pandemic preparations, and he outlines the steps that must be taken to protect against the next outbreak. As the pandemic unfolded, Gottlieb was in regular contact with all the key players in Congress, the Trump administration, and the drug and diagnostic industries. He provides an inside account of how level after level of American government crumbled as the COVID-19 crisis advanced. A system-wide failure across government institutions left the nation blind to the threat, and unable to mount an effective response. We’d prepared for the wrong virus. We failed to identify the contagion early enough and became overly reliant on costly and sometimes divisive tactics that couldn’t fully slow the spread. We never considered asymptomatic transmission and we assumed people would follow public health guidance. Key bureaucracies like the CDC were hidebound and outmatched. Weak political leadership aggravated these woes. We didn’t view a public health disaster as a threat to our national security. Many of the woes sprung from the CDC, which has very little real-time reporting capability to inform us of Covid’s twists and turns or assess our defenses. The agency lacked an operational capacity and mindset to mobilize the kind of national response that was needed. To guard against future pandemic risks, we must remake the CDC and properly equip it to better confront crises. We must also get our intelligence services more engaged in the global public health mission, to gather information and uncover emerging risks before they hit our shores so we can head them off. For this role, our clandestine agencies have tools and capabilities that the CDC lacks. Uncontrolled Spread argues we must fix our systems and prepare for a deadlier coronavirus variant, a flu pandemic, or whatever else nature -- or those wishing us harm -- may threaten us with. Gottlieb outlines policies and investments that are essential to prepare the United States and the world for future threats.

The Plague Year

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Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0141998148
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis The Plague Year by : Lawrence Wright

Download or read book The Plague Year written by Lawrence Wright and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'A virtuoso feat ... a book of panoramic breadth' New York Times Book Review 'A devastating analysis ... Wright is a master of knitting together complex narratives' The Observer Just as Lawrence Wright's The Looming Tower became the defining account of our century's first devastating event, 9/11, so The Plague Year will become the defining account of the second. The story starts with the initial moments of Covid's appearance in Wuhan and ends with Joseph Biden's inauguration in an America ravaged by well over 400,000 deaths - a mortality already some ten times worse than US combat deaths in the entire Vietnam War. This is an anguished, furious memorial to a year in which all of America's great strengths - its scientific knowledge, its great civic and intellectual institutions, its spirit of voluntarism and community - were brought low, not by a terrifying new illness alone, but by political incompetence and cynicism on a scale for which there has been no precedent. With insight, sympathy, clarity and rage, The Plague Year allows the reader to see the unfolding of this great tragedy, talking with individuals on the front line, bringing together many moving and surprising stories and painting a devastating picture of a country literally and fatally misled. 'Maddening and sobering - as comprehensive an account of the first year of the pandemic as we've yet seen' Kirkus

Corona, False Alarm?

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Author :
Publisher : Chelsea Green Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1645020584
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (45 download)

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Book Synopsis Corona, False Alarm? by : Karina Reiss

Download or read book Corona, False Alarm? written by Karina Reiss and published by Chelsea Green Publishing. This book was released on 2020-09-16 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does the race for vaccine development make sense? What are the chances of success? Will the vaccine be safe? Will people accept it?? In June 2020, Corona, False Alarm? exploded into the German market, selling 200,000 copies and 75,000 e-books in the first six weeks. No other topic dominates our attention as much as coronavirus and COVID-19, the infectious disease it triggers. There’s been a global deluge of contradictory opinions, fake news, and politically controlled information. Differing views on the dangers posed by the pandemic have led to deep division and confusion, within governments, society, and even among friends and family. In Corona, False Alarm?, award-winning researchers Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi and Dr. Karina Reiss give clarity to these confusing and stressful times. They offer analysis of whether radical protective measures—including lockdown, social distancing, and mandatory masking—have been justified, and what the ramifications have been for society, the economy, and public health. Dr. Bhakdi and Dr. Reiss provide dates, facts, and background information, including: How Covid-19 compares with previous coronaviruses and the flu virus What infection numbers and the death rate really tell us The challenges around lockdown: Were the protective measures justified? Mandatory mask-wearing: Does the science support it? Vaccines: What are the chances of success? What are the risks? Corona, False Alarm? provides you with sound information and substantiated facts—and encourages you to form your own opinion on the corona crisis.

Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine

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Author :
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030968224X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-11-30 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the societal disruption it has brought, national governments and the international community have invested billions of dollars and immense amounts of human resources to develop a safe and effective vaccine in an unprecedented time frame. Vaccination against this novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), offers the possibility of significantly reducing severe morbidity and mortality and transmission when deployed alongside other public health strategies and improved therapies. Health equity is intertwined with the impact of COVID-19 and there are certain populations that are at increased risk of severe illness or death from COVID-19. In the United States and worldwide, the pandemic is having a disproportionate impact on people who are already disadvantaged by virtue of their race and ethnicity, age, health status, residence, occupation, socioeconomic condition, or other contributing factors. Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine offers an overarching framework for vaccine allocation to assist policy makers in the domestic and global health communities. Built on widely accepted foundational principles and recognizing the distinctive characteristics of COVID-19, this report's recommendations address the commitments needed to implement equitable allocation policies for COVID-19 vaccine.

The COVID-19 Pandemic

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Author :
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 100021401X
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis The COVID-19 Pandemic by : Tapas Kumar Koley

Download or read book The COVID-19 Pandemic written by Tapas Kumar Koley and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2020-08-31 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a comprehensive account of the COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the novel coronavirus pandemic, as it happened. Originating in China in late 2019, the COVID-19 outbreak spread across the entire world in a matter of three to four months. This volume examines the first responses to the pandemic, the contexts of earlier epidemics and the epidemiological basics of infectious diseases. Further, it discusses patterns in the spread of the disease; the management and containment of infections at the personal, national and global level; effects on trade and commerce; the social and psychological impact on people; the disruption and postponement of international events; the role of various international organizations like the WHO in the search for solutions; and the race for a vaccine or a cure. Authored by a medical professional and an economist working on the frontlines, this book gives a nuanced, verified and fact-checked analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic and its global response. A one-stop resource on the COVID-19 outbreak, it is indispensable for every reader and a holistic work for scholars and researchers of medical sociology, public health, political economy, public policy and governance, sociology of health and medicine, and paramedical and medical practitioners. It will also be a great resource for policymakers, government departments and civil society organizations working in the area.

The COVID-19 Catastrophe

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Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1509546456
Total Pages : 143 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (95 download)

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Book Synopsis The COVID-19 Catastrophe by : Richard Horton

Download or read book The COVID-19 Catastrophe written by Richard Horton and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-07-13 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest science policy failure in a generation. We knew this was coming. Warnings about the threat of a new pandemic have been made repeatedly since the 1980s and it was clear in January that a dangerous new virus was causing a devastating human tragedy in China. And yet the world ignored the warnings. Why? In this short and hard-hitting book, Richard Horton, editor of the medical journal The Lancet, scrutinizes the actions that governments around the world took – and failed to take – as the virus spread from its origins in Wuhan to the global pandemic that it is today. He shows that many Western governments and their scientific advisors made assumptions about the virus and its lethality that turned out to be mistaken. Valuable time was lost while the virus spread unchecked, leaving health systems unprepared for the avalanche of infections that followed. Drawing on his own scientific and medical expertise, Horton outlines the measures that need to be put in place, at both national and international levels, to prevent this kind of catastrophe from happening again. Were supposed to be living in an era where human beings have become the dominant influence on the environment, but COVID-19 has revealed the fragility of our societies and the speed with which our systems can come crashing down. We need to learn the lessons of this pandemic and we need to learn them fast because the next pandemic may arrive sooner than we think.

Apollo's Arrow

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Publisher : Hachette UK
ISBN 13 : 0316628220
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (166 download)

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Book Synopsis Apollo's Arrow by : Nicholas A. Christakis

Download or read book Apollo's Arrow written by Nicholas A. Christakis and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2020-10-27 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A piercing and scientifically grounded look at the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic and how it will change the way we live—"excellent and timely." (The New Yorker) Apollo's Arrow offers a riveting account of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic as it swept through American society in 2020, and of how the recovery will unfold in the coming years. Drawing on momentous (yet dimly remembered) historical epidemics, contemporary analyses, and cutting-edge research from a range of scientific disciplines, bestselling author, physician, sociologist, and public health expert Nicholas A. Christakis explores what it means to live in a time of plague—an experience that is paradoxically uncommon to the vast majority of humans who are alive, yet deeply fundamental to our species. Unleashing new divisions in our society as well as opportunities for cooperation, this 21st-century pandemic has upended our lives in ways that will test, but not vanquish, our already frayed collective culture. Featuring new, provocative arguments and vivid examples ranging across medicine, history, sociology, epidemiology, data science, and genetics, Apollo's Arrow envisions what happens when the great force of a deadly germ meets the enduring reality of our evolved social nature.

Nightmare Scenario

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Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 006327308X
Total Pages : 496 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (632 download)

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Book Synopsis Nightmare Scenario by : Yasmeen Abutaleb

Download or read book Nightmare Scenario written by Yasmeen Abutaleb and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2022-07-05 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Instant #1 New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller From the Washington Post journalists Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta—the definitive account of the Trump administration’s tragic mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the chaos, incompetence, and craven politicization that has led to more than a half million American deaths and counting. Since the day Donald Trump was elected, his critics warned that an unexpected crisis would test the former reality-television host—and they predicted that the president would prove unable to meet the moment. In 2020, that crisis came to pass, with the outcomes more devastating and consequential than anyone dared to imagine. Nightmare Scenario is the complete story of Donald Trump’s handling—and mishandling—of the COVID-19 catastrophe, during the period of January 2020 up to Election Day that year. Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta take us deep inside the White House, from the Situation Room to the Oval Office, to show how the members of the administration launched an all-out war against the health agencies, doctors, and scientific communities, all in their futile attempts to wish away the worst global pandemic in a century. From the initial discovery of this new coronavirus, President Trump refused to take responsibility, disputed the recommendations of his own pandemic task force, claimed the virus would “just disappear,” mocked advocates for safe-health practices, and encouraged his base and the entire GOP to ignore or rescind public health safety measures. Abutaleb and Paletta reveal the numerous times officials tried to dissuade Trump from following his worst impulses as he defied recommendations from the experts and even members of his own administration. And they show how the petty backstabbing and rivalries among cabinet members, staff, and aides created a toxic environment of blame, sycophancy, and political pressure that did profound damage to the public health institutions that Americans needed the most during this time. Even after an outbreak in the fall that swept through the White House and infected Trump himself, he remained defiant in his approach to the virus, very likely costing him his own reelection. Based on exhaustive reporting and hundreds of hours of interviews from inside the disaster zone at all levels of authority, Nightmare Scenario is a riveting account of how the United States government failed its people as never before, a tragedy whose devastating aftershocks will linger and be felt by generations to come.

Economics in One Virus

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Author :
Publisher : Cato Institute
ISBN 13 : 1952223075
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (522 download)

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Book Synopsis Economics in One Virus by : Ryan A. Bourne

Download or read book Economics in One Virus written by Ryan A. Bourne and published by Cato Institute. This book was released on 2021-04-07 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A truly excellent book that explains where our pandemic response went wrong, and how we can understand those failings using the tools of economics." —Tyler Cowen, Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and coauthor of the blog Marginal Revolution Have you ever stopped to wonder why hand sanitizer was missing from your pharmacy for months after the COVID-19 pandemic hit? Why some employers and employees were arguing over workers being re-hired during the first COVID-19 lockdown? Why passenger airlines were able to get their own ring-fenced bailout from Congress? Economics in One Virus answers all these pandemic-related questions and many more, drawing on the dramatic events of 2020 to bring to life some of the most important principles of economic thought. Packed with supporting data and the best new academic evidence, those uninitiated in economics will be given a crash-course in the subject through the applied case-study of the COVID-19 pandemic, to help explain everything from why the U.S. was underprepared for the pandemic to how economists go about valuing the lives saved from lockdowns. After digesting this highly readable, fast-paced, and provocative virus-themed economic tour, readers will be able to make much better sense of the events that they've lived through. Perhaps more importantly, the insights on everything from the role of the price mechanism to trade and specialization will grant even those wholly new to economics the skills to think like an economist in their own lives and when evaluating the choices of their political leaders.

How to Prevent the Next Pandemic

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Author :
Publisher : Vintage
ISBN 13 : 0593534492
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (935 download)

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Book Synopsis How to Prevent the Next Pandemic by : Bill Gates

Download or read book How to Prevent the Next Pandemic written by Bill Gates and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2022-05-03 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments, businesses, and individuals around the world are thinking about what happens after the COVID-19 pandemic. Can we hope to not only ward off another COVID-like disaster but also eliminate all respiratory diseases, including the flu? Bill Gates, one of our greatest and most effective thinkers and activists, believes the answer is yes. The author of the #1 New York Times best seller How to Avoid a Climate Disaster lays out clearly and convincingly what the world should have learned from COVID-19 and what all of us can do to ward off another catastrophe like it. Relying on the shared knowledge of the world’s foremost experts and on his own experience of combating fatal diseases through the Gates Foundation, Gates first helps us understand the science of infectious diseases. Then he shows us how the nations of the world, working in conjunction with one another and with the private sector, how we can prevent a new pandemic from killing millions of people and devastating the global economy. Here is a clarion call—strong, comprehensive, and of the gravest importance.

Covid-19

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Author :
Publisher : Bridge Street Press
ISBN 13 : 9780349128375
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (283 download)

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Book Synopsis Covid-19 by : Debora Mackenzie

Download or read book Covid-19 written by Debora Mackenzie and published by Bridge Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-07 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Norm Chronicles

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Author :
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465085695
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis The Norm Chronicles by : Michael Blastland

Download or read book The Norm Chronicles written by Michael Blastland and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A statistician and a journalist reveal the real story behind the statistics on risk, chance, and choice