Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691215073
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Counterfactual Love Stories and Other Experiments

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781934819975
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactual Love Stories and Other Experiments by : BLISS. JACKSON

Download or read book Counterfactual Love Stories and Other Experiments written by BLISS. JACKSON and published by . This book was released on 2021-10 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiction. Asian & Asian American Studies. From fragmented ransom notes to hanging footnotes, contemporary fairy tales to coded text, interconnecting pieces of modal flash fiction to backwards fractal narratives about gradual blindness, transgressive listicles to how-to guides for performative wokeness, variable destinies in downtown Chicago to impossible dating applications, counterfactual relationships to the French translation of adolescence, the conceptual, language-driven short stories in COUNTERFACTUAL LOVE STORIES AND OTHER EXPERIMENTS are an exploration of not just mixed-race/hapa identity in Michigan (and the American Midwest), but also of the infinite ways in which stories can be told, challenged, celebrated, and subverted.

The Science of Can and Can't

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Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0241310954
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (413 download)

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Book Synopsis The Science of Can and Can't by : Chiara Marletto

Download or read book The Science of Can and Can't written by Chiara Marletto and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2021-05-04 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A young theoretical physicist's guide to how the radical new science of counterfactuals can reveal the full scope of our universe There is a vast class of properties that science has so far almost entirely neglected. These properties are central to an understanding of physical reality both at an everyday level and at the level of fundamental phenomena, yet they have traditionally been thought of as impossible to incorporate into fundamental explanations. They relate not only to what is true - the actual - but to what could be true - the counterfactual. This is the science of can and can't. Chiara Marletto, a pioneer in this field, explores the promise that this fascinating, far-reaching approach holds not only for revolutionizing how fundamental physics is formulated, but also for confronting existing technological challenges, from delivering the next generation of information-processing devices to designing AI. In each chapter, Marletto sets out how counterfactuals can solve a vexed open problem in science, and demonstrates that by contemplating the possible as well as the actual, we can break down barriers to knowledge and form a more complete and fruitful picture of the universe. 'Clear, sharp and imaginative... The Science of Can and Can't will open the doors to a dazzling set of concepts and ideas that will change deeply the way you look at the world' David Deutsch, bestselling author of The Beginning of Infinity

Unsun

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Publisher : Coach House Books
ISBN 13 : 1770566147
Total Pages : 138 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Unsun by : Andrew Zawacki

Download or read book Unsun written by Andrew Zawacki and published by Coach House Books. This book was released on 2019-09-24 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his fifth poetry volume, American poet Andrew Zawacki expands his inquiry into the possibilities and dangers of a ‘global pastoral,’ exploring geographies alternately enhanced and flattened out by digital networks, international transit, the uneven and invisible movements of capital, and the unrelenting feedback loops of data surveillance, weather disaster, war. Wheeling interference patterns of systems of meaning, from radio signals and runway signage to foreign phrases and babytalk, interact with the ‘langscape’ of English, while punctuation is retrofitted as coding. In creating a politically committed lyric form that opens all the dimensions of language – sonic and semantic, syntactic and graphic – Unsun sustains an oblique conversation with Paul Celan’s Fadensonnen, Chris Marker’s Sans soleil, and Michael Palmer’s Sun. Loosely structured by the settings of analog photography, the book features a suite of the author’s black-and-white, large format images alongside an adaptation of Tang Dynasty poet Wang Wei and a series of fractured sonnets for – and from – his young daughter.

The Savage Kind

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Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1643138103
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis The Savage Kind by : John Copenhaver

Download or read book The Savage Kind written by John Copenhaver and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2021-10-05 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two lonely teenage girls in 1940s Washington, DC, discover they have a penchant for solving crimes—and an even greater desire to commit them—in the new mystery novel by Macavity Award-winning novelist John Copenhaver. Philippa Watson, a good-natured yet troubled seventeen-year-old, has just moved to Washington, DC. She’s lonely until she meets Judy Peabody, a brilliant and tempestuous classmate. The girls become unlikely friends and fashion themselves as intellectuals, drawing the notice of Christine Martins, their dazzling English teacher, who enthralls them with her passion for literature and her love of noirish detective fiction. When Philippa returns a novel Miss Martins has lent her, she interrupts a man grappling with her in the shadows. Frightened, Philippa flees, unsure who the man is or what she’s seen. Days later, her teacher returns to school altered: a dark shell of herself. On the heels of her teacher’s transformation, a classmate is found dead in the Anacostia River—murdered—the body stripped and defiled with a mysterious inscription. As the girls follow the clues and wrestle with newfound feelings toward each other, they suspect that the killer is closer to their circle than they imagined—and that the greatest threat they face may not be lurking in the halls at school, or in the city streets, but creeping out from a murderous impulse of their own.

Leave Society

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Publisher : Vintage
ISBN 13 : 1101974486
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Leave Society by : Tao Lin

Download or read book Leave Society written by Tao Lin and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the acclaimed author of Taipei, a bold portrait of a writer working to balance all his lives—artist, son, loner—as he spins the ordinary into something monumental. An engrossing, hopeful novel about life, fiction, and where the two blur together. In 2014, a novelist named Li leaves Manhattan to visit his parents in Taipei for ten weeks. He doesn't know it yet, but his life will begin to deepen and complexify on this trip. As he flies between these two worlds--year by year, over four years--he will flit in and out of optimism, despair, loneliness, sanity, bouts of chronic pain, and drafts of a new book. He will incite and temper arguments, uncover secrets about nature and history, and try to understand how to live a meaningful life as an artist and a son. But how to fit these pieces of his life together? Where to begin? Or should he leave society altogether? Exploring everyday events and scenes--waiting rooms, dog walks, family meals--while investigatively venturing to the edges of society, where culture dissolves into mystery, Lin shows what it is to write a novel in real time. Illuminating and deeply felt, as it builds toward a stunning, if unexpected, romance, Leave Society is a masterly story about life and art at the end of history. A VINTAGE ORIGINAL

The Ferrante Letters

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Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 023155088X
Total Pages : 327 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis The Ferrante Letters by : Sarah Chihaya

Download or read book The Ferrante Letters written by Sarah Chihaya and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-07 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like few other works of contemporary literature, Elena Ferrante’s Neapolitan novels found an audience of passionate and engaged readers around the world. Inspired by Ferrante’s intense depiction of female friendship and women’s intellectual lives, four critics embarked upon a project that was both work and play: to create a series of epistolary readings of the Neapolitan Quartet that also develops new ways of reading and thinking together. In a series of intertwined, original, and daring readings of Ferrante’s work and her fictional world, Sarah Chihaya, Merve Emre, Katherine Hill, and Juno Jill Richards strike a tone at once critical and personal, achieving a way of talking about literature that falls between the seminar and the book club. Their letters make visible the slow, fractured, and creative accretion of ideas that underwrites all literary criticism and also illuminate the authors’ lives outside the academy. The Ferrante Letters offers an improvisational, collaborative, and cumulative model for reading and writing with others, proposing a new method the authors call collective criticism. A book for fans of Ferrante and for literary scholars seeking fresh modes of intellectual exchange, The Ferrante Letters offers incisive criticism, insouciant riffs, and the pleasure of giving oneself over to an extended conversation about fiction with friends.

Amnesia of June Bugs

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (853 download)

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Book Synopsis Amnesia of June Bugs by : Jackson Bliss

Download or read book Amnesia of June Bugs written by Jackson Bliss and published by . This book was released on 2022-04-15 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amnesia of June Bugs is an ambitious, infatuated, and furious book about the time we lost and the people we could have loved.

The Book of Why

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Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0465097618
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)

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Book Synopsis The Book of Why by : Judea Pearl

Download or read book The Book of Why written by Judea Pearl and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-05-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

A Tupolev Too Far

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Publisher : Collins
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis A Tupolev Too Far by : Brian Wilson Aldiss

Download or read book A Tupolev Too Far written by Brian Wilson Aldiss and published by Collins. This book was released on 1993 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A glittering twelve story collection from Britain's best loved Sci-Fi writer.

The Years of Rice and Salt

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Publisher : Spectra
ISBN 13 : 0553897608
Total Pages : 777 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (538 download)

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Book Synopsis The Years of Rice and Salt by : Kim Stanley Robinson

Download or read book The Years of Rice and Salt written by Kim Stanley Robinson and published by Spectra. This book was released on 2003-06-03 with total page 777 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the same unique vision that brought his now classic Mars trilogy to vivid life, bestselling author Kim Stanley Robinson boldly imagines an alternate history of the last seven hundred years. In his grandest work yet, the acclaimed storyteller constructs a world vastly different from the one we know. . . . “A thoughtful, magisterial alternate history from one of science fiction’s most important writers.”—The New York Times Book Review It is the fourteenth century and one of the most apocalyptic events in human history is set to occur—the coming of the Black Death. History teaches us that a third of Europe’s population was destroyed. But what if the plague had killed 99 percent of the population instead? How would the world have changed? This is a look at the history that could have been—one that stretches across centuries, sees dynasties and nations rise and crumble, and spans horrible famine and magnificent innovation. Through the eyes of soldiers and kings, explorers and philosophers, slaves and scholars, Robinson navigates a world where Buddhism and Islam are the most influential and practiced religions, while Christianity is merely a historical footnote. Probing the most profound questions as only he can, Robinson shines his extraordinary light on the place of religion, culture, power—and even love—in this bold New World. “Exceptional and engrossing.”—New York Post “Ambitious . . . ingenious.”—Newsday

Rodham

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Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN 13 : 0399590935
Total Pages : 465 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (995 download)

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Book Synopsis Rodham by : Curtis Sittenfeld

Download or read book Rodham written by Curtis Sittenfeld and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2021-06-01 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • From the author of American Wife and Eligible . . . He proposed. She said no. And it changed her life forever. “A deviously clever what if.”—O: The Oprah Magazine “Immersive, escapist.”—Good Morning America “Ingenious.”—The New York Times NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The New Yorker • NPR • The Washington Post • Marie Claire • Cosmopolitan (UK) • Town & Country • New York Post In 1971, Hillary Rodham is a young woman full of promise: Life magazine has covered her Wellesley commencement speech, she’s attending Yale Law School, and she’s on the forefront of student activism and the women’s rights movement. And then she meets Bill Clinton. A handsome, charismatic southerner and fellow law student, Bill is already planning his political career. In each other, the two find a profound intellectual, emotional, and physical connection that neither has previously experienced. In the real world, Hillary followed Bill back to Arkansas, and he proposed several times; although she said no more than once, as we all know, she eventually accepted and became Hillary Clinton. But in Curtis Sittenfeld’s powerfully imagined tour-de-force of fiction, Hillary takes a different road. Feeling doubt about the prospective marriage, she endures their devastating breakup and leaves Arkansas. Over the next four decades, she blazes her own trail—one that unfolds in public as well as in private, that involves crossing paths again (and again) with Bill Clinton, that raises questions about the tradeoffs all of us must make in building a life. Brilliantly weaving a riveting fictional tale into actual historical events, Curtis Sittenfeld delivers an uncannily astute and witty story for our times. In exploring the loneliness, moral ambivalence, and iron determination that characterize the quest for political power, as well as both the exhilaration and painful compromises demanded of female ambition in a world still run mostly by men, Rodham is a singular and unforgettable novel.

Of Literature and Knowledge

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134104405
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (341 download)

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Book Synopsis Of Literature and Knowledge by : Peter Swirski

Download or read book Of Literature and Knowledge written by Peter Swirski and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2007-02-12 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Of Literature and Knowledge looks ... like an important advance in this new and very important subject... literature is about to become even more interesting." – Edward O. Wilson, Pellegrino University Professor, Harvard University. Framed by the theory of evolution, this colourful and engaging volume presents a new understanding of the mechanisms by which we transfer information from narrative make-believe to real life. Ranging across game theory and philosophy of science, as well as poetics and aesthetics, Peter Swirski explains how literary fictions perform as a systematic tool of enquiry, driven by thought experiments. Crucially, he argues for a continuum between the cognitive tools employed by scientists, philosophers and scholars or writers of fiction. The result is a provocative study of our talent and propensity for creating imaginary worlds, different from the world we know yet invaluable to our understanding of it. Of Literature and Knowledge is a noteworthy challenge to contemporary critical theory, arguing that by bridging the gap between literature and science we might not only reinvigorate literary studies but, above all, further our understanding of literature.

If Only

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Publisher : Harmony
ISBN 13 : 0767920236
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (679 download)

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Book Synopsis If Only by : Neal Roese, Ph.D.

Download or read book If Only written by Neal Roese, Ph.D. and published by Harmony. This book was released on 2005-01-11 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you spend a lot of time thinking about “what might have been,” you’re not alone. In If Only, Neal Roese, Ph.D., one of the world’s top scientists studying regret, shows us that thoughts about what might have been are practically unavoidable. In fact, they are produced spontaneously by the brain with a very practical goal--to guide us toward improvement. But the same thoughts can bring the pain of regret. Is it worth the pain to get the improvement? Or should you live life with no regrets? Luckily, it’s not a package deal. The surprising message of If Only is that we can manage our regret style to maximize the gain and minimize the pain. In an entertaining and upbeat book that weds lively science writing to practical self-help, Dr. Roese mines the research and shares simple strategies for managing your life to make the most of regret. You’ll learn: Don’t Over-react. You may react to a regrettable situation by taking many fewer chances. Don’t. This only ensures that you will miss out on new opportunities. Think Downward. Consider the downward alternatives. How could a bad situation have gone even worse? This makes you feel appreciative of what you have. Do It. If you decide to do something and it turns out badly, research shows that it probably won’t haunt you down the road. (You’ll reframe the failure and move on.) But you will regret the things left undone. Regrets are Opportunities Knocking. Our brains produce the most “if only” thoughts about things in our lives that we can still change. So consider regret as a signal flashing: It’s not too late! If Only also shows that “if only” thinking plays a huge role across our lives, from how best to buy, to why we enjoy movies, how juries decide, and the way we choose someone to love. If Only opens a new window into the way our minds work and offers clear lessons for living more happily with the past. “Fifteen years of research have been combined into a list of the top four biggest regrets of the average American: not getting more education career regrets regrets in love not spending enough time with kids The list is essentially a summary of the biggest traps, pitfalls, and mistakes into which people like you might blunder. Look over the list and try to identify areas of your life that represent the greatest vulnerability to future regret. And act now to avoid regret later.” --from If Only This life-changing guide will teach you how to turn regret into opportunity and hindsight into happiness

Altered Pasts

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Publisher : Brandeis University Press
ISBN 13 : 1611685389
Total Pages : 172 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Altered Pasts by : Richard J. Evans

Download or read book Altered Pasts written by Richard J. Evans and published by Brandeis University Press. This book was released on 2014-02-04 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ê A bullet misses its target in Sarajevo, a would-be Austrian painter gets into the Viennese academy, Lord Halifax becomes British prime minister in 1940 instead of Churchill: seemingly minor twists of fate on which world-shaking events might have hinged. Alternative history has long been the stuff of parlor games, war-gaming, and science fiction, but over the past few decades it has become a popular stomping ground for serious historians. The historian Richard J. Evans now turns a critical, slightly jaundiced eye on a subject typically the purview of armchair historians. The bookÕs main concern is examining the intellectual fallout from historical counterfactuals, which the author defines as Òalternative versions of the past in which one alteration in the timeline leads to a different outcome from the one we know actually occurred.Ó What if Britain had stood at the sidelines during the First World War? What if the Wehrmacht had taken Moscow? The author offers an engaging and insightful introduction to the genre, while discussing the reasons for its revival in popularity, the role of historical determinism, and the often hidden agendas of the counterfactual historian. Most important, Evans takes counterfactual history seriously, looking at the insights, pitfalls, and intellectual implications of changing one thread in the weave of history. A wonderful critical introduction to an often-overlooked genre for scholars and casual readers of history alike.

Wittgenstein's Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments

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Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470777257
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Wittgenstein's Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments by : Martin Cohen

Download or read book Wittgenstein's Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments written by Martin Cohen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wittgenstein’s Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments invites readers to participate actively in discovering the surprisingly powerful and fruitful tradition of "thought experiments." Gives a lively presentation of an "A to Z" of 26 fascinating and influential thought experiments from philosophy and science Presents vivid and often humorous discussion of the experiments, including strengths and weaknesses, historical context, and contemporary uses Provides a "how to" section for engaging in thought experiments Includes illustrations, mini-biographies, and suggestions for further reading.

Albion's Seed

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780199743698
Total Pages : 972 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (436 download)

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Book Synopsis Albion's Seed by : David Hackett Fischer

Download or read book Albion's Seed written by David Hackett Fischer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1991-03-14 with total page 972 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fascinating book is the first volume in a projected cultural history of the United States, from the earliest English settlements to our own time. It is a history of American folkways as they have changed through time, and it argues a thesis about the importance for the United States of having been British in its cultural origins. While most people in the United States today have no British ancestors, they have assimilated regional cultures which were created by British colonists, even while preserving ethnic identities at the same time. In this sense, nearly all Americans are "Albion's Seed," no matter what their ethnicity may be. The concluding section of this remarkable book explores the ways that regional cultures have continued to dominate national politics from 1789 to 1988, and still help to shape attitudes toward education, government, gender, and violence, on which differences between American regions are greater than between European nations.