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Author : Michal Benčík
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (117 download)
Download or read book Construction of a Survey-based Measure of Output Gap written by Michal Benčík and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michał Hulej
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Output Gap Measure Based on Survey Data written by Michał Hulej and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Pierre St.-Amant
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780662260196
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (61 download)
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Author : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151352786X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513512544
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Author : Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513511130
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea written by Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-02 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed. This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
Author : Anton Cheremukhin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)
Download or read book Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time written by Anton Cheremukhin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output--the output gap--satisfies Okun's law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.
Author : J. Ferreiro
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230228267
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (32 download)
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in the European Union written by J. Ferreiro and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-11-27 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of national fiscal policies in the European Union and in the European Monetary Union. Adopting a critical perspective, the book offers a deep insight into the consequences of the current strategy of national fiscal policies on economic activity.
Author : Mr.Andreas Billmeier
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451856675
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (566 download)
Download or read book Ghostbusting written by Mr.Andreas Billmeier and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2004-08-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries.
Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475565135
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Author : Iris Claus
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 72 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Output Gap written by Iris Claus and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455208442
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book United Kingdom written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-09 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the extent of spare capacity in the U.K. economy using a range of methodologies pointing to an output gap and the behavior of inflation during large output gaps. The usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation is generally positive, and a more permanent rules-based fiscal framework is required. The banking system has recovered fast; however, the sustainability of the sector’s recovery is still uncertain, and risks remain. An update on reforms to the financial sector’s regulatory and supervisory framework is also provided.
Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264191658
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (641 download)
Download or read book OECD Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-being written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These Guidelines represent the first attempt to provide international recommendations on collecting, publishing, and analysing subjective well-being data.
Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484361555
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Author : Zidong An
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356049
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)
Download or read book Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264177442
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (641 download)
Download or read book Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2003-03-20 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.
Author : Great Britain: National Audit Office
Publisher : The Stationery Office
ISBN 13 : 0102936536
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (29 download)
Download or read book Audit of Assumptions for the 2005 Pre-budget Report written by Great Britain: National Audit Office and published by The Stationery Office. This book was released on 2005-12-05 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report by the National Audit Office, made under sections 156 and 157 of the Finance Act 1998, examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the Treasury's fiscal projections within the Pre-Budget Report 2005 (Cm 6701 ISBN 0101670125).
