Computational Approach To Bayesian Inference For Risk Assessment

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Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Author : Dana Kelly
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1849961875
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (499 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment by : Dana Kelly

Download or read book Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment written by Dana Kelly and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-30 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment provides a Bayesian foundation for framing probabilistic problems and performing inference on these problems. Inference in the book employs a modern computational approach known as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC approach may be implemented using custom-written routines or existing general purpose commercial or open-source software. This book uses an open-source program called OpenBUGS (commonly referred to as WinBUGS) to solve the inference problems that are described. A powerful feature of OpenBUGS is its automatic selection of an appropriate MCMC sampling scheme for a given problem. The authors provide analysis “building blocks” that can be modified, combined, or used as-is to solve a variety of challenging problems. The MCMC approach used is implemented via textual scripts similar to a macro-type programming language. Accompanying most scripts is a graphical Bayesian network illustrating the elements of the script and the overall inference problem being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment also covers the important topics of MCMC convergence and Bayesian model checking. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment is aimed at scientists and engineers who perform or review risk analyses. It provides an analytical structure for combining data and information from various sources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions used in risk and reliability models.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Author : Norman Fenton
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439809100
Total Pages : 527 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by : Norman Fenton

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-11-07 with total page 527 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Author : Norman Fenton
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351978977
Total Pages : 661 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by : Norman Fenton

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 661 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

Computational Bayesian Statistics

Author : M. Antónia Amaral Turkman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108481035
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Bayesian Statistics by : M. Antónia Amaral Turkman

Download or read book Computational Bayesian Statistics written by M. Antónia Amaral Turkman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-28 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This integrated introduction to fundamentals, computation, and software is your key to understanding and using advanced Bayesian methods.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

Author : Andrew Gelman
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439840954
Total Pages : 677 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Computational Methods for Reliability and Risk Analysis

Author : Enrico Zio
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9812839011
Total Pages : 363 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (128 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Methods for Reliability and Risk Analysis by : Enrico Zio

Download or read book Computational Methods for Reliability and Risk Analysis written by Enrico Zio and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book illustrates a number of modelling and computational techniques for addressing relevant issues in reliability and risk analysis. In particular, it provides: i) a basic illustration of some methods used in reliability and risk analysis for modelling the stochastic failure and repair behaviour of systems, e.g. the Markov and Monte Carlo simulation methods; ii) an introduction to Genetic Algorithms, tailored to their application for RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) optimization; iii) an introduction to key issues of system reliability and risk analysis, like dependent failures and importance measures; and iv) a presentation of the issue of uncertainty and of the techniques of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis used in support of reliability and risk analysis.The book provides a technical basis for senior undergraduate or graduate courses and a reference for researchers and practitioners in the field of reliability and risk analysis. Several practical examples are included to demonstrate the application of the concepts and techniques in practice.

COMPSTAT 2004 - Proceedings in Computational Statistics

Author : Jaromir Antoch
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3790826561
Total Pages : 578 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis COMPSTAT 2004 - Proceedings in Computational Statistics by : Jaromir Antoch

Download or read book COMPSTAT 2004 - Proceedings in Computational Statistics written by Jaromir Antoch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical computing provides the link between statistical theory and applied statistics. The content of the book covers all aspects of this link, from the development and implementation of new statistical ideas to user experiences and software evaluation. The proceedings should appeal to anyone working in statistics and using computers, whether in universities, industrial companies, government agencies, research institutes or as software developers

Bayesian Reliability

Author : Michael S. Hamada
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387779507
Total Pages : 445 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (877 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Reliability by : Michael S. Hamada

Download or read book Bayesian Reliability written by Michael S. Hamada and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-15 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Reliability presents modern methods and techniques for analyzing reliability data from a Bayesian perspective. The adoption and application of Bayesian methods in virtually all branches of science and engineering have significantly increased over the past few decades. This increase is largely due to advances in simulation-based computational tools for implementing Bayesian methods. The authors extensively use such tools throughout this book, focusing on assessing the reliability of components and systems with particular attention to hierarchical models and models incorporating explanatory variables. Such models include failure time regression models, accelerated testing models, and degradation models. The authors pay special attention to Bayesian goodness-of-fit testing, model validation, reliability test design, and assurance test planning. Throughout the book, the authors use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for implementing Bayesian analyses -- algorithms that make the Bayesian approach to reliability computationally feasible and conceptually straightforward. This book is primarily a reference collection of modern Bayesian methods in reliability for use by reliability practitioners. There are more than 70 illustrative examples, most of which utilize real-world data. This book can also be used as a textbook for a course in reliability and contains more than 160 exercises. Noteworthy highlights of the book include Bayesian approaches for the following: Goodness-of-fit and model selection methods Hierarchical models for reliability estimation Fault tree analysis methodology that supports data acquisition at all levels in the tree Bayesian networks in reliability analysis Analysis of failure count and failure time data collected from repairable systems, and the assessment of various related performance criteria Analysis of nondestructive and destructive degradation data Optimal design of reliability experiments Hierarchical reliability assurance testing

Practical Bayesian Inference

Author : Coryn A. L. Bailer-Jones
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108127673
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Bayesian Inference by : Coryn A. L. Bailer-Jones

Download or read book Practical Bayesian Inference written by Coryn A. L. Bailer-Jones and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-27 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Science is fundamentally about learning from data, and doing so in the presence of uncertainty. This volume is an introduction to the major concepts of probability and statistics, and the computational tools for analysing and interpreting data. It describes the Bayesian approach, and explains how this can be used to fit and compare models in a range of problems. Topics covered include regression, parameter estimation, model assessment, and Monte Carlo methods, as well as widely used classical methods such as regularization and hypothesis testing. The emphasis throughout is on the principles, the unifying probabilistic approach, and showing how the methods can be implemented in practice. R code (with explanations) is included and is available online, so readers can reproduce the plots and results for themselves. Aimed primarily at undergraduate and graduate students, these techniques can be applied to a wide range of data analysis problems beyond the scope of this work.

Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment

Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470035498
Total Pages : 2163 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment by :

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-02 with total page 2163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.

Bayesian Biostatistics

Author : Emmanuel Lesaffre
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470018232
Total Pages : 544 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Biostatistics by : Emmanuel Lesaffre

Download or read book Bayesian Biostatistics written by Emmanuel Lesaffre and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-08-13 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introductory and more advanced chapters, this book provides an invaluable understanding of the complex world of biomedical statistics illustrated via a diverse range of applications taken from epidemiology, exploratory clinical studies, health promotion studies, image analysis and clinical trials. Key Features: Provides an authoritative account of Bayesian methodology, from its most basic elements to its practical implementation, with an emphasis on healthcare techniques. Contains introductory explanations of Bayesian principles common to all areas of application. Presents clear and concise examples in biostatistics applications such as clinical trials, longitudinal studies, bioassay, survival, image analysis and bioinformatics. Illustrated throughout with examples using software including WinBUGS, OpenBUGS, SAS and various dedicated R programs. Highlights the differences between the Bayesian and classical approaches. Supported by an accompanying website hosting free software and case study guides. Bayesian Biostatistics introduces the reader smoothly into the Bayesian statistical methods with chapters that gradually increase in level of complexity. Master students in biostatistics, applied statisticians and all researchers with a good background in classical statistics who have interest in Bayesian methods will find this book useful.

Verification and Validation in Scientific Computing

Author : William L. Oberkampf
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139491768
Total Pages : 782 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Verification and Validation in Scientific Computing by : William L. Oberkampf

Download or read book Verification and Validation in Scientific Computing written by William L. Oberkampf and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-10-14 with total page 782 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in scientific computing have made modelling and simulation an important part of the decision-making process in engineering, science, and public policy. This book provides a comprehensive and systematic development of the basic concepts, principles, and procedures for verification and validation of models and simulations. The emphasis is placed on models that are described by partial differential and integral equations and the simulations that result from their numerical solution. The methods described can be applied to a wide range of technical fields, from the physical sciences, engineering and technology and industry, through to environmental regulations and safety, product and plant safety, financial investing, and governmental regulations. This book will be genuinely welcomed by researchers, practitioners, and decision makers in a broad range of fields, who seek to improve the credibility and reliability of simulation results. It will also be appropriate either for university courses or for independent study.

Risk - A Multidisciplinary Introduction

Author : Claudia Klüppelberg
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319044869
Total Pages : 472 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk - A Multidisciplinary Introduction by : Claudia Klüppelberg

Download or read book Risk - A Multidisciplinary Introduction written by Claudia Klüppelberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-06-10 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It will stimulate intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promote better risk management practices and contribute to the development of risk management methodologies. Individual chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, the health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging discipline that considers risks in different fields, aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and have taken at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that all content can readily be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplines. Each chapter provides simple case studies and examples, open research questions and discussion points, and a selected bibliography inviting readers to further study.

Bayesian Theory and Applications

Author : Paul Damien
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199695601
Total Pages : 717 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Theory and Applications by : Paul Damien

Download or read book Bayesian Theory and Applications written by Paul Damien and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 717 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.

Computational Intelligence Techniques for Sustainable Supply Chain Management

Author : Sanjoy Kumar Paul
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0443184658
Total Pages : 470 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Intelligence Techniques for Sustainable Supply Chain Management by : Sanjoy Kumar Paul

Download or read book Computational Intelligence Techniques for Sustainable Supply Chain Management written by Sanjoy Kumar Paul and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2024-05-24 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sustainable supply chain management involves integrating environmentally and financially viable practices into the complete supply chain lifecycle, from product design and development to material selection and sourcing, manufacturing, packaging, transportation, and distribution. A sustainable supply chain ensures balance between economic, social, and environmental performances – such as better assurance of human rights, ethical work practices, carbon footprint reduction, waste management, and resource efficiency. Computational Intelligence Techniques for Sustainable Supply Chain Management presents state-of-the-art computational intelligence techniques and applications for supply chain sustainability issues and logistic problems, filling the gap between general textbooks on sustainable supply chain management and more specialized literature dealing with methods for computational intelligence. This book focuses on addressing problems in advanced topics in the sustainable supply chain, and will appeal to practitioners, managers, researchers, academicians, students, and professionals interested in sustainable logistics, sustainable procurement, sustainable manufacturing, sustainable inventory and production management, sustainable scheduling, sustainable transportation, and sustainable network design. - Serves as a reference on computational intelligence–enabled sustainable supply chains for graduate students in computer/data science, industrial engineering, industrial ecology, and business - Explores key topics in sustainable supply chain informatics, that is, heuristics, metaheuristics, robotics, simulation, machine learning, big data analytics and artificial intelligence - Provides a foundation for industry leaders and professionals to understand recent and cutting-edge methodologies and technologies in the domain of sustainable supply chain powered by computational intelligence techniques

Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference

Author : Pavel V. Shevchenko
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642159230
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference by : Pavel V. Shevchenko

Download or read book Modelling Operational Risk Using Bayesian Inference written by Pavel V. Shevchenko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-01-19 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone explosive changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in the operational environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products, and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks which are very different from market and credit risks. In response, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has developed a new regulatory framework for capital measurement and standards for the banking sector. This has formally defined operational risk and introduced corresponding capital requirements. Many banks are undertaking quantitative modelling of operational risk using the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) based on statistical quantification of the frequency and severity of operational risk losses. There are a number of unresolved methodological challenges in the LDA implementation. Overall, the area of quantitative operational risk is very new and different methods are under hot debate. This book is devoted to quantitative issues in LDA. In particular, the use of Bayesian inference is the main focus. Though it is very new in this area, the Bayesian approach is well suited for modelling operational risk, as it allows for a consistent and convenient statistical framework for quantifying the uncertainties involved. It also allows for the combination of expert opinion with historical internal and external data in estimation procedures. These are critical, especially for low-frequency/high-impact operational risks. This book is aimed at practitioners in risk management, academic researchers in financial mathematics, banking industry regulators and advanced graduate students in the area. It is a must-read for anyone who works, teaches or does research in the area of financial risk.

Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3

Author : Klaus Hinkelmann
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470530685
Total Pages : 598 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3 by : Klaus Hinkelmann

Download or read book Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3 written by Klaus Hinkelmann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-02-14 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides timely applications, modifications, and extensions of experimental designs for a variety of disciplines Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3: Special Designs and Applications continues building upon the philosophical foundations of experimental design by providing important, modern applications of experimental design to the many fields that utilize them. The book also presents optimal and efficient designs for practice and covers key topics in current statistical research. Featuring contributions from leading researchers and academics, the book demonstrates how the presented concepts are used across various fields from genetics and medicinal and pharmaceutical research to manufacturing, engineering, and national security. Each chapter includes an introduction followed by the historical background as well as in-depth procedures that aid in the construction and analysis of the discussed designs. Topical coverage includes: Genetic cross experiments, microarray experiments, and variety trials Clinical trials, group-sequential designs, and adaptive designs Fractional factorial and search, choice, and optimal designs for generalized linear models Computer experiments with applications to homeland security Robust parameter designs and split-plot type response surface designs Analysis of directional data experiments Throughout the book, illustrative and numerical examples utilize SAS®, JMP®, and R software programs to demonstrate the discussed techniques. Related data sets and software applications are available on the book's related FTP site. Design and Analysis of Experiments, Volume 3 is an ideal textbook for graduate courses in experimental design and also serves as a practical, hands-on reference for statisticians and researchers across a wide array of subject areas, including biological sciences, engineering, medicine, and business.