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Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Book Synopsis Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis by : Martha Whitesmith
Download or read book Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis written by Martha Whitesmith and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Book Synopsis Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by : Richards J Heuer
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Book Synopsis Cognitive Biases in Visualizations by : Geoffrey Ellis
Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.
Book Synopsis Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality by : Riccardo Viale
Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality written by Riccardo Viale and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-02 with total page 681 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Herbert Simon’s renowned theory of bounded rationality is principally interested in cognitive constraints and environmental factors and influences which prevent people from thinking or behaving according to formal rationality. Simon’s theory has been expanded in numerous directions and taken up by various disciplines with an interest in how humans think and behave. This includes philosophy, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, economics, political science, sociology, management, and organization studies. The Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality draws together an international team of leading experts to survey the recent literature and the latest developments in these related fields. The chapters feature entries on key behavioural phenomena, including reasoning, judgement, decision making, uncertainty, risk, heuristics and biases, and fast and frugal heuristics. The text also examines current ideas such as fast and slow thinking, nudge, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, embodied cognition, and neurophilosophy. Overall, the volume serves to provide the most complete state-of-the-art collection on bounded rationality available. This book is essential reading for students and scholars of economics, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, political sciences, and philosophy.
Book Synopsis Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by : Richards J. Heuer
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis by : National Research Council
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Book Synopsis Challenges in Intelligence Analysis by : Timothy Walton
Download or read book Challenges in Intelligence Analysis written by Timothy Walton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-08-30 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, first published in 2010, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis.
Book Synopsis Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Book Synopsis Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process by : Juárez Ramos, Verónica
Download or read book Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process written by Juárez Ramos, Verónica and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-11-16 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making or making judgments is an essential function in the ordinary life of any individual. Decisions can often be made easily, but sometimes, it can be difficult due to conflict, uncertainty, or ambiguity of the variables required to make the decision. As human beings, we constantly have to decide between different activities such as occupational, recreational, political, economic, etc. These decisions can be transcendental or inconsequential. Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process presents comprehensive research focusing on cognitive shortcuts in the decision-making process. While highlighting topics including jumping to conclusion bias, personality traits, and theoretical models, this book is ideally designed for mental health professionals, psychologists, sociologists, managers, academicians, researchers, and upper-level students seeking current research on cognitive biases that affect individual decision making in daily life.
Book Synopsis Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence by : Dall'Acqua, Luisa
Download or read book Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence written by Dall'Acqua, Luisa and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-08-28 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The emergence of artificial intelligence has created a vast amount of advancements within various professional sectors and has transformed the way organizations conduct themselves. The implementation of intelligent systems has assisted with developing traditional processes including decision making, risk management, and security. An area that requires significant attention and research is how these companies are becoming accustomed to computer intelligence and applying this technology to their everyday practices. Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the application of intelligent systems within various professional sectors as well as the exploration of theories and empirical findings. While highlighting topics such as decision making, cognitive science, and knowledge management, this publication explores the management of risk and uncertainty using training exercises, as well as the development of managerial intelligence competency. This book is ideally designed for practitioners, educators, researchers, policymakers, managers, developers, analysts, politicians, and students seeking current research on modern approaches to the analysis and performance of cyber intelligence.
Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Book Synopsis An Intelligence in Our Image by : Osonde A. Osoba
Download or read book An Intelligence in Our Image written by Osonde A. Osoba and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2017-04-05 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence influence many aspects of life today. This report identifies some of their shortcomings and associated policy risks and examines some approaches for combating these problems.
Book Synopsis The Bias That Divides Us by : Keith E. Stanovich
Download or read book The Bias That Divides Us written by Keith E. Stanovich and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2021-08-31 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why we don't live in a post-truth society but rather a myside society: what science tells us about the bias that poisons our politics. In The Bias That Divides Us, psychologist Keith Stanovich argues provocatively that we don't live in a post-truth society, as has been claimed, but rather a myside society. Our problem is not that we are unable to value and respect truth and facts, but that we are unable to agree on commonly accepted truth and facts. We believe that our side knows the truth. Post-truth? That describes the other side. The inevitable result is political polarization. Stanovich shows what science can tell us about myside bias: how common it is, how to avoid it, and what purposes it serves. Stanovich explains that although myside bias is ubiquitous, it is an outlier among cognitive biases. It is unpredictable. Intelligence does not inoculate against it, and myside bias in one domain is not a good indicator of bias shown in any other domain. Stanovich argues that because of its outlier status, myside bias creates a true blind spot among the cognitive elite--those who are high in intelligence, executive functioning, or other valued psychological dispositions. They may consider themselves unbiased and purely rational in their thinking, but in fact they are just as biased as everyone else. Stanovich investigates how this bias blind spot contributes to our current ideologically polarized politics, connecting it to another recent trend: the decline of trust in university research as a disinterested arbiter.
Book Synopsis Analytic Culture in the U. S. Intelligence Community by : Rob Johnston
Download or read book Analytic Culture in the U. S. Intelligence Community written by Rob Johnston and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2012-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a rare season when the intelligence story in the news concerns intelligence analysis, not secret operations abroad. The United States is having such a season as it debates whether intelligence failed in the run-up to both September 11 and the second Iraq war, and so Rob Johnston's wonderful book is perfectly timed to provide the back-story to those headlines. The CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence is to be commended for having the good sense to find Johnston and the courage to support his work, even though his conclusions are not what many in the world of intelligence analysis would like to hear. He reaches those conclusions through the careful procedures of an anthro-pologist-conducting literally hundreds of interviews and observing and participating in dozens of work groups in intelligence analysis-and so they cannot easily be dismissed as mere opinion, still less as the bitter mutterings of those who have lost out in the bureaucratic wars. His findings constitute not just a strong indictment of the way American intelligence performs analysis, but also, and happily, a guide for how to do better. Johnston finds no baseline standard analytic method. Instead, the most com¬mon practice is to conduct limited brainstorming on the basis of previous analy¬sis, thus producing a bias toward confirming earlier views. The validating of data is questionable-for instance, the Directorate of Operation's (DO) "clean¬ing" of spy reports doesn't permit testing of their validity-reinforcing the tendency to look for data that confirms, not refutes, prevailing hypotheses. The process is risk averse, with considerable managerial conservatism. There is much more emphasis on avoiding error than on imagining surprises. The analytic process is driven by current intelligence, especially the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's Daily Brief (PDB), which might be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston doesn't put it quite that way, but the Intelligence Community does more reporting than in-depth analysis. None of the analytic agencies knows much about the analytic techniques of the others. In all, there tends to be much more emphasis on writing and communication skills than on analytic methods. Training is driven more by the druthers of individual analysts than by any strategic view of the agencies and what they need. Most training is on-the-job. Johnston identifies the needs for analysis of at least three different types of consumers-cops, spies, and soldiers. The needs of those consumers produce at least three distinct types of intelligence-investigative or operational, stra tegic, and tactical. The research suggests the need for serious study of analytic methods across all three, guided by professional methodologists. Analysts should have many more opportunities to do fieldwork abroad. They should also move much more often across the agency "stovepipes" they now inhabit. These movements would give them a richer sense for how other agencies do analysis. Together, the analytic agencies should aim to create "communities of practice," with mentoring, analytic practice groups, and various kinds of on-line resources, including forums on methods and problem solving. These communities would be linked to a central repository of lessons learned, based on after-action post-mortems and more formal reviews of strategic intelligence products. These reviews should derive lessons for individuals and for teams and should look at roots of errors and failures. Oral and written histories would serve as other sources of wherewithal for lessons. These communities could also begin to reshape organizations, by rethinking organizational designs, developing more formal socialization programs, testing group configurations for effectiveness, and doing the same for management and leadership practices. Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
Book Synopsis Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Daniel Kahneman
Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.
Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals by : Godfrey Garner
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals written by Godfrey Garner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-08-06 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as ‘target centric’ intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject. The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations. Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.
Book Synopsis Ecological Rationality by : Peter M. Todd
Download or read book Ecological Rationality written by Peter M. Todd and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-04-10 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.
