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Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations
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Book Synopsis Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations? by : Mr. Antonio David
Download or read book Can Fiscal Consolidation Announcements Help Anchor Inflation Expectations? written by Mr. Antonio David and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-15 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we use quarterly data and a novel database on fiscal policy consolidation announcements, for a sample of advanced economies and emerging markets to quantify the effects of fiscal tightening on inflation expectations. We find that fiscal consolidation announcements reduce inflation expectations over the medium-term (three and five-years ahead), but not in the short-term (one-year ahead). There is also some evidence that consolidation announcements reduce “disagreement” about expected future inflation at longer horizons. The inflation anchoring role of consolidation announcements is enhanced by the strength of a country’s fiscal and monetary frameworks, and when fiscal and monetary policy work in tandem. In addition, we find that initial conditions matter—inflation expectation’s response to consolidation announcements is larger in periods of high contemporaneous inflation. With these results in hand, we show that the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation in controlling realized inflation depends greatly on the response of inflation expectations to consolidation announcements. These results show that fiscal policy is crucial to anchor inflation expectations and a key element of a credible disinflationary process.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :91 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Spain by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Spain written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-19 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two years after the pandemic, the Spanish economy is facing new headwinds from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Activity has been resilient so far, supported by a strong rebound in tourism and other services and timely policy support measures. However, elevated global energy and food prices, lower trading partners’ demand, deteriorating consumer and business confidence, and rising interest rates have slowed the recovery of output. Growth is projected to moderate to 1.1 percent in 2023. Risks to the outlook include tighter-than-expected financial conditions, weaker global demand, and further increases in European energy prices.
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, October 2022 by : International Monetary
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, October 2022 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-10-11 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global financial stability risks have increased amid a series of cascading shocks. Chapter 1 analyzes the policy response of central banks to high inflation, the risks of a disorderly tightening of financial conditions, and debt distress among emerging and frontier markets. Markets have been extremely volatile, and a deterioration in market liquidity appears to have amplified price moves. In Europe, the energy crisis is contributing to a worsening outlook. In China, the property sector remains a key source of vulnerability. Chapter 2 examines how to narrow the climate financing gap in emerging market and developing economies. Climate policies, including carbon pricing, climate disclosures, and transition taxonomies, are crucial for enabling private climate finance. Innovative financial instruments can help to scale up private climate finance, but the public sector—including multilateral development banks—will have to play a key supporting role. Chapter 3 analyzes the contributions of open-end investment funds to fragilities in asset markets. Open-end investment funds play a key role in financial markets, but those offering daily redemptions while holding illiquid assets can amplify the effects of adverse shocks by raising the likelihood of investor runs and asset fire sales. This contributes to volatility in asset markets and potentially threatens financial stability.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484313461 Total Pages :84 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Japan by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book Japan written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-08-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s economy is growing above potential, narrowing the negative output gap. The expansion is now broader and more balanced than in 2015, with private consumption growth turning positive and private investment strengthening on the back of residential investment. However, labor shortages are evident, wage growth remains weak, and inflation is stubbornly low. Growth momentum will carry through 2017 but would weaken in 2018 if fiscal support fades as currently scheduled. The fiscal stimulus package supports 2017 growth through higher consumption and investment. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative and facilitate a virtuous cycle between credit and economic growth.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484379616 Total Pages :125 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Pakistan by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Pakistan written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-09-12 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights Pakistan’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. Discussions in the IMF report focus on macroeconomic policies to address vulnerabilities and reforms to promote robust inclusive growth. The authorities’ ambitious economic program aims to reverse the current mix of large fiscal deficits and, accommodative monetary policy, and low reserve coverage, which provides few buffers to absorb shocks. The authorities have requested a 36-month extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 4.393 billion.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1616358653 Total Pages :50 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (163 download)
Book Synopsis Haiti by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Haiti written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-05 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This is the final review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The program contributed to maintaining macroeconomic stability, and there was progress on structural reforms. The authorities intend to request a successor arrangement under the ECF. A new finance minister was appointed in April; uncertainly remains on the timing of elections. Preliminary data suggest that GDP in FY2014 grew by 3.5–4 percent, while inflation increased slightly to about 5 percent. An increase in fuel prices (in October) should result in fiscal savings of at least 1 percent of GDP during FY2015. The March performance criterion on net international reserves (NIR) was met, but although the deficit was lower than projected, the performance criterion on net central bank credit to the central government was missed. Downside risks are significant and include a pull-back of Venezuela-related flows, a resumption of political tensions, and vulnerability to weather events. A total of SDR 1.638 million will become available upon completion of this review, bringing total disbursements under the ECF to SDR 40.950 million. Key Policy Recommendations: • The policy mix, in particular the adjustment going forward, should come from a lower fiscal deficit rather than from a tighter monetary policy. The FY2015 fiscal deficit should be reduced to mitigate financing risks as part of a medium-term plan to restore fiscal sustainability. • The central bank should let the exchange rate adjust more to market pressures. Intervention should be parsimonious, geared at avoiding excess volatility and disorderly movements in the exchange rate; it should be guided by fundamentals in the medium term. • Progress on structural reforms (including on the energy sector and on public financial management) should catalyze more donor support and is essential for supporting growth. A possible new ECF arrangement would entrench macroeconomic stability and promote policies to generate sustained GDP growth.
Book Synopsis Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris
Download or read book Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mozambique is an economic success story in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Its remarkable achievements offer valuable lessons to other low-income countries in a post-stabilization economic phase, including how they can efficiently manage a scaling up of foreign aid aimed at poverty reduction. Of special interest to other sub-Saharan countries are the book's discussions of Mozambique's progress toward consolidating macroeconomic and financial stability, and the challenges it faces in ensuring long-term sustainability, creating a virtuous cycle of natural resource use, and implementing second-generation structural reforms to sustain its growth. This book also provides a summary of the most recent research on issues related to post-stabilization economics in SSA.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Thailand 2023 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Thailand 2023 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2023-12-07 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thailand has achieved remarkable economic progress over the past decades. A strong and timely policy response helped to cushion the economic and social impact of the pandemic, and of high energy and food prices.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2022-06-08 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2023 by : International Monetary
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2023 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-10 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have been hit by a sluggish global economy, worldwide inflation, high borrowing costs, and a cost-of-living crisis. In many cases, inflation is still too high, borrowing costs are still elevated, exchange-rate pressures persist, and political instability is an ongoing concern. To ensure that the coming rebound is more than just a transitory glimpse of sunshine, it is important for authorities to guard against a premature relaxation of stabilization policies, while also focusing on reforms to both claw back lost ground from the four-year crisis and also to create new space to address the region’s pressing development needs.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1616350598 Total Pages :242 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (163 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2011 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2011 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-11 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.
Book Synopsis Hungary by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Hungary written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-25 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Hungary is slowing and market perception of recent policy measures has been negative. The eurozone crisis is weighing on Hungary’s external demand. Fiscal and monetary policies are facing constraints, given financial market pressures and inflationary pressures. Executive Directors have noted that the rebound from the crisis has been modest and vulnerabilities remain high. Directors have therefore underscored the need for a well-crafted policy mix that restores confidence in economic governance, anchors the ongoing adjustment, and strengthens economic institutions.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :104 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Arab Republic of Egypt by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Arab Republic of Egypt written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-26 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF Executive Board approved a 46-month USD 3 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Egypt in December 2022. The EFF-supported program aims to safeguard economic stability, restore buffers, and pave the way for inclusive and private sector-led growth. Following policy slippages, the first and second reviews were delayed. The return to a fixed exchange rate in February 2023 undermined the initial credibility boost from the announcement of a shift to a flexible regime and hampered the execution of other program pillars such as divestment of state-owned assets. It also led to foreign exchange (FX) shortages, a large spread in the parallel market, and constrained imports, all of which fueled inflation and weighed on growth. At the same time, delays in raising the policy rate in response to higher-thanexpected inflation resulted in more negative real rates and financial repression. Continued investment in national projects at a pace inconsistent with macroeconomic stability contributed significantly to foreign exchange and inflation pressures. Spillovers from the conflict in Gaza and Israel and the Red Sea disruptions have exacerbated external pressures and widened further the financing gap. A significant investment deal with Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company (ADQ), signed in February, has improved the near-term financial outlook, providing for a more benign external financing environment as the authorities push forward with needed reforms.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475568371 Total Pages :68 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Albania by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Albania written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite a stern global financial crisis and fiscal imbalances within the country, Albania's prudent policies supported its economy to grow and safeguarded the soundness of the financial system. The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) encouraged the authorities to use prospective privatization receipts mainly for debt reduction and clearance of unpaid bills. The Directors recognized that financial risks remained elevated, and called for continued supervisory vigilance. They stressed the need to accelerate structural reforms in many areas to boost potential growth.
Book Synopsis South Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book South Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: South Africa’s strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is petering out. Growth moderated from 4.9 percent in 2021 to 2.0 percent in 2022 as the country was buffeted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, global monetary policy tightening, severe floods, and an unprecedented domestic energy crisis. Inflation rose above the target band though inflation expectations remained anchored. The current account moved back into a deficit after a temporary commodity-price driven surplus.
