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Business Cycles In Small Developed Economies The Role Of Terms Of Trade And Foreign Interest Rate Shocks
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Book Synopsis Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks by : Jaime Guajardo
Download or read book Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks written by Jaime Guajardo and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-04-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without lowering the intertemporal substitution, if the terms of trade and foreign interest rate are added as source of business cycle fluctuations. These shocks, compared to productivity shocks, make consumption and investment more volatile and procyclical relative to output, and make real net exports countercyclical.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis International Trade Agreements And Political Economy by : Raymond Riezman
Download or read book International Trade Agreements And Political Economy written by Raymond Riezman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013-03-25 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a comprehensive view of recent developments in the theory of international trade agreements and political economy, by focusing on research by Raymond Riezman. This pioneering work introduced terms of trade effects and strategic behavior to the theory of international trade agreements. This is complemented by a careful analysis of how politics affects international trade agreements.The book brings together work which focuses on the question of why international trade agreements occur and what forms they take.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484348834 Total Pages :657 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets by : Sebastian Edwards
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2002-11-15 with total page 782 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Book Synopsis Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America? by : Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Download or read book Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America? written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.
Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? by : Claudio E. Raddatz
Download or read book Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries? written by Claudio E. Raddatz and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.
Book Synopsis The American Business Cycle by : Robert J. Gordon
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Book Synopsis The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment by : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Book Synopsis Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three preceding decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.
Book Synopsis Does Openness Imply Greater Exposure? by : César Calderón
Download or read book Does Openness Imply Greater Exposure? written by César Calderón and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: External exposure can be measured by the sensitivity of first and second moments of economic growth to openness and foreign shocks. This paper provides an empirical evaluation of external exposure using panel data methods for a worldwide sample of countries. Controlling for domestic conditions, the paper examines the growth and volatility effects of outcome measures of trade and financial integration, as well as four types of foreign shocks: terms of trade changes, trading partners' growth rates, international real interest rate changes, and net regional capital inflows. The paper analyzes the possibility of nonlinearities by allowing the growth and volatility effects of openness to vary with the general level of economic development and by letting the effects of foreign shocks depend on the degree of trade and financial integration. The findings point toward strong non-monotonic effects of openness and external shocks on growth and volatility. Moreover, all in all, the results contradict the view that international integration increases external vulnerability by hurting growth and increasing volatility or by amplifying the adverse effect of external shocks.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589069129 Total Pages :244 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-29 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a new database of financial reforms covering 91 economies over 1973-2005. It describes the content of the database, the information sources utilized, and the coding rules used to create an index of financial reform. It also compares the database with other measures of financial liberalization, provides descriptive statistics, and discusses some possible applications. The database provides a multifaceted measure of reform, covering seven aspects of financial sector policy. Along each dimension the database provides a graded (rather than a binary) score, and allows for reversals.
Book Synopsis Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-25 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system—whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets—for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth resilience. With low-income countries (LICs) being the most vulnerable to large and frequent terms of trade shocks, the paper focuses on a sample of 38 LICs over the period 1978-2012 and finds that banking sector development acts as a shock-absorber in poor countries, dampening the transmission of terms of trade shocks to growth volatility. Expanding the sample to 121 developing countries confirms this result, although this role of shock-absorber fades away as economies grow richer. Stock market development, by contrast, appears neither to be a shock-absorber nor a shock-amplifier for most economies. These findings are consistent across a range of econometric estimators, including fixed effect, system GMM and local projection estimates.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498378005 Total Pages :884 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-14 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth remains moderate and uneven, and a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country- or region-specific factors. The April 2015 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including lower oil prices, which are providing a boost to growth globally and in many oil-importing countries but are weighing on activity in oil-exporting countries, and substantial changes in exchange rates for major currencies, reflecting variations in country growth rates and in exchange rate policies and the lower price of oil. Additionally, analytical chapters explore the growth rate of potential output across advanced and emerging market economies, assessing its recent track and likely future course; and the performance of private fixed investment in advanced economies, which has featured prominently in the public policy debate in recent years, focusing on the role of overall economic weakness in accounting for this performance.