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Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Analysis and Expectational Survey Data written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the role of foresight, and the significance of the lack of foresight under uncertainty, in the theory of business cycles ? What relevant evidence on these questions can be extracted from the survey data on agents' expectations and experts' forecasts? To provide some answers, the recent work in this area is reviewed in the perspective of economic and doctrinal history. The address proceeds from (1) a discussion of the expectational aspects of modern business cycles theories and (2) a critique of the currently dominant approaches to (3) a summary of the evidence and (4) some illustrations and implications for further analysis. Of the conclusions drawn,perhaps the most general one is that expectations matter a great deal but are not all-important. They may be rational in the sense of effectively using the limited available knowledge and information, but they are also diversified and not always self-validating or stabilizing.
Author : Sylvain Leduc
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437933823
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)
Download or read book Expectations and Economic Fluctuations written by Sylvain Leduc and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity, the authors study how changes in expectations, and their interaction with monetary policy, contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. They find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. Short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens. ¿Provides quantitative evidence on the importance of expectations-driven business cycles and on the role that monetary policy plays in shaping them.¿ Charts and tables.
Author : Georg Goldrian
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9781781954362
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (543 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Survey- Based Business Cycle Analysis written by Georg Goldrian and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. - Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies on the consequence of the survey results is presented. The significance of the surveys applied equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.
Author : Sylvain Leduc
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Expectations and Economic Fluctuations written by Sylvain Leduc and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the authors study how changes in expectations, and their interaction with monetary policy, contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. They find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. The authors also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens. Their results provide quantitative evidence on the importance of expectations-driven business cycles and on the role that monetary policy plays in shaping them.
Author : Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (54 download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Analysis by Means of Economic Surveys written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Werner H. Strigel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783593329826
Total Pages : 223 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (298 download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Surveys written by Werner H. Strigel and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jaap De Koning
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (491 download)
Download or read book Measuring Expectations with the Help of Data from Business-cycle Survey written by Jaap De Koning and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (933 download)
Download or read book Dynamics of Expectation Formation, a Microdata Study of Company Expectations from Business Surveys written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study a dataset containing business survey variables and actual turnover realizations at the firm level is used to study what influences firms' production expectations, what causes these to change and to test a number of hypothesis on expectation formation. It was found that there is a strong positive relation between expected production, order inflow and expected price changes. Expectations seem to be more influenced by general business conditions, as characterized by for example orders and prices, than by short-term developments in turnover realizations. A change in expected production was likely to be accompanied by a contemporaneous change in order inflow, price expectations, the assessment of the level of stocks and the assessment of current production. Errors in expectations in the previous month were of influence as well. It was also shown that although they are strongly influenced by past realizations, expectations also contain a strong forward looking component. Exogenous information, like macro-economic news, was of little influence on individual firms' expectations and added little to turnover predictions. These results support the use of Business Survey data in business cycle analysis and forecasting. None of the tested expectation formation mechanisms could give a good description of actual expectations. Rational expectations were rejected as expectations were neither unbiased nor efficient. Extrapolative and adaptive expectations could not be rejected, but these cannot account for the forward looking component in expectations. Interestingly, error-learning did seem to be present.
Author : Karl Aiginger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (44 download)
Download or read book The Use of Survey Data for the Analysis of Business Cycles written by Karl Aiginger and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Karl Heinrich Oppenlander
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351752014
Total Pages : 632 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (517 download)
Download or read book Use of Survey Data for Industry, Research and Economic Policy written by Karl Heinrich Oppenlander and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 632 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2000: This text offers a comprehensive collection of selected papers from the 24th Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) conference. Areas selected include leading indicators and turning points, classifications of business cycles, survey data and policy decisions, attitudes and behaviour of firms, and economic forecasting. The text aims to be of interest to all those concerned with the use of business and consumer surveys in a global context.
Author : Jaap De Koning
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (491 download)
Download or read book Measuring Expectations with the Help of Data from Business-cycle Surveys written by Jaap De Koning and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Jan-Egbert Sturm
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3790816051
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)
Download or read book Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis written by Jan-Egbert Sturm and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-30 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A pilot ?ying to a distant city needs to check his position, ?ight path and weather conditions, and must constantly keep his plane under control to land safely.TheIfosurveydataprovideadvanceinformationonchangingeconomic weather conditions and help keep the economy under control. To be sure, by their very nature they only provide short-term information. But like a plane, the economy will not be able to reach its long-term goals if it strays o? course in the short term. The Ifo survey data provide the most comprehensive and accurate, - to-date database in Europe on the state of the business cycle, and the Ifo climate indicator, sometimes simply called “The Ifo”, is the most frequently cited indicator of its kind in Europe. Both the European stock market and theeuroreacttoourindicator.Ifo’smethodologyfordeterminingthebusiness climateindicatorhasbeenexportedtomorethan?ftycountries,mostrecently toTurkeyandChina.TheIfopeoplewereproudtohavebeenaskedtohelpset up polling systems in these countries. It is said that the Chinese government relies more on their “Ifo indicator” than on their o?cial accounting statistics.
Author : Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 712 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Contributions of Business Cycle Surveys to Empirical Economics written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 712 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Committee on General Business Expectations
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book An Appraisal of Data and Research on Businessmen's Expectations about Outlook and Operating Variables written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). Committee on General Business Expectations and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
