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Assessing Public Debt Sustainability In Mauritania With A Stochastic Framework
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Book Synopsis Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in Mauritania with a Stochastic Framework by : William Baghdassarian
Download or read book Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in Mauritania with a Stochastic Framework written by William Baghdassarian and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work presents a stochastic framework for assessing public debt sustainability and applies it to the case of Mauritania. The sustainability assessment projects solvency and liquidity indicators -- public debt stock and gross financing needs relative to GDP -- for 2014-23. The analysis uses deterministic scenarios and stochastic simulations to analyze policy options and fiscal risks. The study relies on simple econometric models to generate forecasts of key macroeconomic variables driving the public debt dynamics and to compute debt-distress probabilities and debt thresholds. The study builds on basic techniques to determine optimal portfolios suitable as benchmarks for public debt management. A main result is that, if Mauritania maintains a strong growth performance and pursues sound policies to balance the budget and take advantage of concessional financing opportunities, it could reduce the public debt from 74 percent of GDP in 2013 to 30 percent by 2023, and the gross financing needs from 12 percent of GDP to 4 percent. Further scaling up capital spending is likely to deteriorate public debt sustainability because the estimated (marginal) growth-dividend is small. A more promising avenue would be to improve the quality of public investment and institutions, as opposed to the volume of capital expenditure. Different debt strategies can significantly affect the liquidity needs and the on-budget interest bill. But it is the fiscal policy geared toward balanced budgets that ultimately would permit Mauritania to improve the solvency indicators, and thus the public debt sustainability.
Book Synopsis Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in Mauritania with a Stochastic Framework by : William Baghdassarian
Download or read book Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in Mauritania with a Stochastic Framework written by William Baghdassarian and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work presents a stochastic framework for assessing public debt sustainability and applies it to the case of Mauritania. The sustainability assessment projects solvency and liquidity indicators -- public debt stock and gross financing needs relative to GDP -- for 2014-23. The analysis uses deterministic scenarios and stochastic simulations to analyze policy options and fiscal risks. The study relies on simple econometric models to generate forecasts of key macroeconomic variables driving the public debt dynamics and to compute debt-distress probabilities and debt thresholds. The study builds on basic techniques to determine optimal portfolios suitable as benchmarks for public debt management. A main result is that, if Mauritania maintains a strong growth performance and pursues sound policies to balance the budget and take advantage of concessional financing opportunities, it could reduce the public debt from 74 percent of GDP in 2013 to 30 percent by 2023, and the gross financing needs from 12 percent of GDP to 4 percent. Further scaling up capital spending is likely to deteriorate public debt sustainability because the estimated (marginal) growth-dividend is small. A more promising avenue would be to improve the quality of public investment and institutions, as opposed to the volume of capital expenditure. Different debt strategies can significantly affect the liquidity needs and the on-budget interest bill. But it is the fiscal policy geared toward balanced budgets that ultimately would permit Mauritania to improve the solvency indicators, and thus the public debt sustainability.
Book Synopsis A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis by : Gabriel Di Bella
Download or read book A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis written by Gabriel Di Bella and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.
Book Synopsis Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty by : Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty written by Mr.Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries—Design and Implementation by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries—Design and Implementation written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-16 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación
Book Synopsis Public Debt Through the Ages by : Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen
Download or read book Public Debt Through the Ages written by Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-15 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.
Book Synopsis The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios by : Aya Achour
Download or read book The Morocco Policy Analysis Model: Theoretical Framework and Policy Scenarios written by Aya Achour and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-30 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response.
Book Synopsis Sustainability in the Twenty-First Century by : Mohan Munasinghe
Download or read book Sustainability in the Twenty-First Century written by Mohan Munasinghe and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-05-23 with total page 689 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a rigorous analysis of sustainable development that includes practical, policy-relevant, global case studies, explained concisely and clearly.
Book Synopsis Small States Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Small States Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-07-11 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.
Book Synopsis Shock Waves by : Stephane Hallegatte
Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
Book Synopsis A Historical Public Debt Database by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book A Historical Public Debt Database written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the compilation of the first truly comprehensive database on gross government debt-to-GDP ratios, covering nearly the entire IMF membership (174 countries) and spanning an exceptionally long time period. The database was constructed by bringing together a number of other datasets and information from original sources. For the most recent years, the data are linked to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database to facilitate regular updates. The paper discusses the evolution of debt-to-GDP ratios across country groups for several decades, episodes of debt spikes and reversals, and a pattern of negative correlation between debt and growth.
Book Synopsis Learning from Economic Downturns by : Xiaohui Hou
Download or read book Learning from Economic Downturns written by Xiaohui Hou and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-10-11 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book builds on the lessons of the most recent global financial crisis, especially in Europe and Central Asia and proposes a more effective role for the health sector as part of a safety net function and as a stabilizer for the population during a crisis.
Book Synopsis Botswana by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Botswana written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-27 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Botswana near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity, and financial markets. Gross domestic product growth is forecasted to pick up to 4.4 percent in 2020 and 5.6 percent in 2021 as the diamond industry recovers somewhat, and a new copper mine comes on stream. Growth will ease back to around 4 percent over the medium term. Risks to the outlook include faster-than-anticipated slowdown in key trading partners, shifts in consumer preferences to synthetic diamonds, and climate shocks. The size and pace of the planned adjustment are consistent with Botswana’s fiscal space, but the composition of the adjustment should protect efficient capital and social spending. Furthermore, given that buffers are being eroded, it is critical that consolidation starts as envisaged in FY2020, as it would help start addressing external imbalances and contribute to a gradual rebuilding of buffers over the medium term. In order to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism and deepen the domestic financial market, there is a need to develop the secondary market for government securities, leverage Fintech, facilitate the attachment of collateral, and improve credit information.
Book Synopsis Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti by : Ioana Moldovan
Download or read book Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti written by Ioana Moldovan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A low-income country such as Haiti that confronts an environment of diminishing aid inflows must assess tradeoffs among the available policy options: spending cuts, monetization, sales of debt, or use of foreign reserves. To provide the analytical tools for this task, the paper draws from a set of DSGE models recently developed to evaluate policy choices in low-income countries for which external aid flows represent an important revenue source. Two simplified stylized variations of the main model are used to gain intuition and initially assess the trdeaoffs. Subsequenctly a full-scale small open economy DSGE model, calibrated to match conditions in Haiti and in similar low-income countries, is employed. Several key results are common to all model versions. While sales of foreign exchange reserves can compensate for the loss of aid inflows, this strategy is not sustainable. The remaining policy choices entail larger welfare costs, involving lower consumption levels and real depreciation. The results suggest that a mixture of spending cuts and depreciation is the best strategy, when use of foreign reserves is constrained.
Book Synopsis Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-03 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
