An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle by : Noha Emara

Download or read book An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Noha Emara and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron (1989) revealed the seasonal cycle of the U.S. economy from 1948 to 1985 was characterized by a "bubble-like" expansion in the second and fourth quarters, a "crash-like" contraction in the first quarter, and a mild contraction in the third quarter. We replicate, in part, their seasonal cycle analysis from 1946 to 2001. Our results are largely in line with theirs. Nonetheless, we find the seasonal cycle is not stable and can evolve across time. In particular, the Great Moderation affected both the business cycle and the seasonal cycle.Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron also found real aggregates, like the output, move together in the seasonal cycle across broadly defined sectors, similar to a phenomenon observed under the conventional business cycle. They posed a challenge question concerning why "the seasonal and the conventional business cycles are so similar.'' To answer their question, we focus on a number of aggregate variables with a recursive application of the HP filter and find that aggregates, such as the GDP, consumption, the S&P 500 Index, and so forth, have a "bubble-like" expansion and a "crash-like" contraction in their cyclical trends in business cycle frequencies. Although preference shifts and production synergy are the two major forces that drive the seasonal cycle, we find the time-varying stochastic discount factor is the main cause of the business cycle and plays a more important role in macroeconomic fluctuations in business cycle frequencies than other factors.

The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle by : Robert B. Barsky

Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. We document the quantitative importance of seasonal fluctuations, and we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in a set of standard macroeconomic variables. Our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarter, a large decrease in the first quarter, and a mild decrease in the third quarter. The paper demonstrates that, with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles, the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle, in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle. That is, we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly defined sectors move together, the timing of production and sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. There is a "seasonal business cycle" in the United States economy, and its characteristics mirror closely those of the conventional business cycle.

The Economics of Seasonal Cycles

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262133234
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (332 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics of Seasonal Cycles by : Jeffrey A. Miron

Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations.

A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles by : J. Joseph Beaulieu

Download or read book A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles written by J. Joseph Beaulieu and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a recent paper Barsky and Miron (1989) examine the seasonal fluctuations in the U.S. economy. They show that the key stylized facts about the business cycle characterize the seasonal cycle as well, and they suggest that the interpretation of many of these stylized facts over the seasonal cycle is easier than interpretation over the business cycle. The reason is that the ultimate sources of seasonal cycles are more readily identifiable than those of business cycles. This paper uses the cross country variation in seasonal patterns to pin down the ultimate sources of seasonal variation more precisely than is possible from examination of U.S. data alone. We conclude that a Christmas shift in preferences and synergies across agents are the key determinants of the seasonal patterns around the world. The paper also establishes that, across developed countries, the key observations about aggregate variables that characterize the business cycle also characterize the seasonal cycle. Thus, the similarity of the seasonal cycle and the business cycle demonstrated by Barsky and Miron (1989) for the united states is a robust stylized fact.

What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles? by : Jeffrey A. Miron

Download or read book What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles? written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.

The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)

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Book Synopsis The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis by : Lawrence J. Christiano

Download or read book The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis written by Lawrence J. Christiano and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'No.' So says one model that is broadly consistent with postwar U.S. seasonal and business cycle data.

The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle

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Publisher : Montréal : Université de Montréal, Dép. de sciences économiques
ISBN 13 : 9782893820965
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (29 download)

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Book Synopsis The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle by : Ghysels, Eric

Download or read book The Business Cycle, the Seasonal Cycle Or Just Any Cycle written by Ghysels, Eric and published by Montréal : Université de Montréal, Dép. de sciences économiques. This book was released on 1990 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Measuring Business Cycles

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 602 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Business Cycles by : Arthur F. Burns

Download or read book Measuring Business Cycles written by Arthur F. Burns and published by . This book was released on 1946 with total page 602 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business Cycles and Forecasting

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 624 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Forecasting by : Elmer Clark Bratt

Download or read book Business Cycles and Forecasting written by Elmer Clark Bratt and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle by :

Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom?

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (464 download)

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Book Synopsis Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? by : Stephen G. Cecchetti

Download or read book Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? written by Stephen G. Cecchetti and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Using disaggregated production data we show that the size of seasonal cycles changes significantly over the course of the business cycle. In particular, during periods of high economy-wide activity, some industries smooth seasonal fluctuations while others exaggerate them. We interpret this finding using a simple analytical model that describes the conditions under which seasonal and cyclical fluctuations can be separated. Our model implies that seasonal fluctuations can safely be disentangled from cyclical fluctuations only when the marginal cost of production is linear, and the variation in demand and cost satisfy certain (restrictive) conditions. The model also suggests that inventory movements can be used to isolate the role of demand shifts in generating any interaction between seasonal cycles and business cycles. Thus, the empirical analysis involves studying the variation in seasonally unadjusted patterns of production and inventory accumulation over different phases of the business cycle. Our finding that seasonals shrink during booms and that firms carry more inventories into high sales seasons during a boom leads us to conclude that for several industries, marginal cost slopes up at an increasing rate. Conversely, in a couple of industries we find that seasonal swings in production are exaggerated during booms and that inventories are drawn down prior to high sales seasons, suggesting that marginal costs curves flatten as production increases. Overall, we find considerable evidence that there are non-linear interactions between business cycles and seasonal cycles.

Econometric Business Cycle Research

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461555914
Total Pages : 237 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Business Cycle Research by : Jan Jacobs

Download or read book Econometric Business Cycle Research written by Jan Jacobs and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.

Business Cycles

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978907
Total Pages : 614 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1992-06-15 with total page 614 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community.

The Extent of Seasonal/business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789289468602
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (686 download)

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Book Synopsis The Extent of Seasonal/business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production by :

Download or read book The Extent of Seasonal/business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature has uncovered evidence that the seasonal pattern in industrial production changes over the business cycle, with seasonality typically being less pronounced in periods of high growth than in the low growth (or recession) business cycle phase. Matas Mir and Osborn (2003a) examine this effect using monthly data for various OECD countries, finding that the change in the seasonal pattern is typically concentrated in the summer months. The present paper extends this analysis in a specifically European context, by presenting measures of the extent of seasonal/business cycle interactions for industrial production series from the countries of the European Union. The analysis is undertaken using a nonlinear threshold model that allows the overall mean and seasonal characteristics to change with the regime. The extent of seasonality in each regime is represented as the average absolute deviation of the steady-state growth in each month from the overall steady-state mean growth in that regime. Seasonal/business cycle interaction is then measured in two ways, namely as the difference and the ratio of the regime-dependent seasonality. All these measures are computed over all months, and also separately for the summer and non-summer months. The results reinforce previous findings of reduced seasonality in higher growth periods, with the seasonal pattern sometimes being moderated by 20 percent or more (both over the year and in the summer months).

Business Cycles

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Publisher : National Bureau of Economic Research
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 520 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by National Bureau of Economic Research. This book was released on 1927 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319318225
Total Pages : 293 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation by : Estela Bee Dagum

Download or read book Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation written by Estela Bee Dagum and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-20 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.

Budgeting to the Business Cycle

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Budgeting to the Business Cycle by : Joseph H. Barber

Download or read book Budgeting to the Business Cycle written by Joseph H. Barber and published by . This book was released on 1925 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: