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An Analysis Of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth And Implementation Of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using A Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model
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Book Synopsis An Analysis of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model by : Richard A. Phillips
Download or read book An Analysis of Aircraft Weapon Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model written by Richard A. Phillips and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) aircraft weapon systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts affected aircraft weapon system cost growth. A "pre-reform" (1 January 1991-31 December 1996) period and a "post reform" (1 January 1997-31 December 2001) period were subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid program managers and other interested parties in determining weapon systems cost growth, and the conclusion drawn from analyzing current acquisition initiatives may assist DoD leadership in assessing reform effectiveness on reducing cost growth. This research effort analyzed 78 SARs for 13 aircraft weapon systems that reported a Milestone II baseline during the treatment period. ACG calculations revealed that aircraft systems from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2001 averaged a 40 percent cost growth annually. The acquisition reform analysis included 43 SARs from 11 programs during the pre-reform period and 35 SARs from 7 programs in the post- reform period. A small sample t-test was used to compare the annual means of the two periods. The t-test revealed that there was no significant difference between the annual average ACG for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. The 13 aircraft systems reviewed in this study are as follows: B-1B (Lancer), C130-J (Hercules), C-17 (Globemaster III), KC-135R (Stratotanker), AV-8B (Harrier) AV- 8B (Harrier remanufacture), F-14D (Tomcat), F-16 (Fighting Falcon), F-22 (Raptor), FA-18 E/F (Super Hornet), FA-18 (Hornet), T-6A (JPATS), and the T-45- TS (Goshawk). The thesis methodology, results, and suggestions for future research are provided. (15 tables, 8 figures, 40 refs.)
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model by : Christopher C. Abate
Download or read book An Analysis of Missile Systems Cost Growth and Implementation of Acquisition Reform Initiatives Using a Hybrid Adjusted Cost Growth Model written by Christopher C. Abate and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis examined cost growth in Department of Defense (DoD) missile systems from 1991 to 2001 using Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data with a hybrid adjusted cost growth (ACG) model. In addition, an analysis of acquisition reform initiatives during the treatment period was conducted to determine if reform efforts impacted missile system cost growth. A pre-reform (1 January 1991 to 31 December 1996) period and post reform (1 January 1997 to 31 December 2001) period was subjectively developed to compare the mean annual ACG during each period for statistical differences. The hybrid ACG model outlined in this thesis may aid program managers and other interested parties in determining weapon systems cost growth, and the conclusion drawn from analyzing current acquisition initiatives may assist DoD leadership in assessing reform effectiveness on reducing cost growth. This research effort analyzed 135 SARs for 21 missile systems that reported a Milestone II baseline during the treatment period. Adjusted Cost Growth (ACG) calculations revealed that missile systems from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2001 averaged 28 percent cost growth annually. The acquisition reform analysis included 76 SARs from 20 programs during the pre-reform period and 59 SARs from 13 programs in the post-reform period. A small sample t-test was used to compare the annual means of the two periods and revealed that at a 0.05 significance level, the annual average ACG for the post-reform period was higher than the annual average ACG of the pre- reform period.
Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by : Mark V. Arena
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? by : Obaid Younossi
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Book Synopsis Acquisition Reform by : United States. General Accounting Office
Download or read book Acquisition Reform written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by :
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Book Synopsis How Funding Instability Affects Army Programs by : David Kassing
Download or read book How Funding Instability Affects Army Programs written by David Kassing and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study looked at how funding instability affects Army acquisition programs. Most funding instability was found to stem from events external to the Army or ambitious Army-set technical goals. Funding instability's effects took the form of schedule slips, cost increases, and to a lesser degree, technical compromises. No significant association was found between funding instability and the adverse effects of program cost growth and schedule slippage.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-09 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For several decades, Congress and the DoD have explored ways to improve the acquisition of major weapon systems, yet program outcomes and their underlying causes have proven resistant to change. Last year, the cumulative cost growth in DoD's portfolio of major programs was $296 billion. The opportunity to achieve meaningful improvements may now be at hand with the recent intro. of major reforms to the acquisition process. This report focuses on: (1) identifying weapon programs that are achieving good outcomes; (2) the factors that enable some programs to succeed; and (3) lessons to be learned from these programs to guide implementation of recent reforms. This report conducted case study reviews of five programs. Charts and tables.
Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by : Joseph George Bolten
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Gene L. Dodaro
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Gene L. Dodaro and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-06 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes observations on the performance of DoD's 2010 portfolio of 98 major defense acquisition programs; data on selected factors that can affect program outcomes; an assessment of the knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process for a subset of 40 programs; and observations on the implementation of acquisition reforms. To conduct this review, the auditor analyzed cost, schedule, and quantity data and collected data from program offices on performance requirements and software development; technology, design, and manufacturing knowledge; and the implementation of DoD's acquisition policy and acquisition reforms. He also compiled assessments of 71 weapon programs. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Book Synopsis An Overview of Acquisition Reform Cost Savings Estimates by :
Download or read book An Overview of Acquisition Reform Cost Savings Estimates written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In support of the project "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives," this study gives an overview of a wide range of published estimates and projections of potential cost savings that are attributed to a variety of weapon system acquisition reform (AR) measures. These estimates are compared in accordance with a taxonomy developed by the authors. Although the origins and quality of the estimates are discussed, no independent estimates have been generated, nor are the existing published estimates analyzed in depth. Rather, the authors present a taxonomy of current AR initiatives; review published estimates of the cost savings attributed to these initiatives; report the views of industry and government officials on the potential cost savings from AR; and discuss the structuring and implementation of programmatic AR measures based on lessons learned from existing AR pilot programs. The project is in the RAND Project AIR FORCE Resource Management Program. The research is sponsored by the Principal Deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition), and by the Office of the Technical Director, Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. This study should be of interest to government and industry officials concerned with assessing the potential cost savings that current AR measures may generate when applied to major weapon system R & D and procurement programs. The information collection cutoff date was December 1999.
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions: Observations on Weapon Program Performance and Acquisition Reforms by : Michael J. Sullivan
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions: Observations on Weapon Program Performance and Acquisition Reforms written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past two years have seen the Congress and the DoD take meaningful steps towards addressing long-standing weapon acquisition issues -- an area that has been on the high risk list since 1990. This testimony focuses on the progress DoD has made in improving the planning and execution of its weapon acquisition programs and the potential for recent acquisition reforms to improve program outcomes. The testimony includes observations about: (1) DoD's efforts to manage its portfolio of major defense acquisition programs; (2) the knowledge attained at key junctures of a subset of 42 weapon programs from the 2009 portfolio; (3) other factors that can affect program execution; and (4) DoD's implementation of recent acquisition reforms. Illus.
Book Synopsis An Overview of Acquisition Reform Cost Savings Estimates by : Mark A. Lorell
Download or read book An Overview of Acquisition Reform Cost Savings Estimates written by Mark A. Lorell and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 2001 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of analyses have recently been conducted in efforts to update technical cost models and cost estimating relationships for fixed-wing combat aircraft, particulary in light of the numerous cost-saving measures that have been initiated over the past decade. This report focuses on aqguisition reform or the institution of changes in government acquisition procrsses or in the relationship between the government and Department of Defense primes.
Author :United States Government Accountability Office Publisher :Createspace Independent Publishing Platform ISBN 13 :9781977579959 Total Pages :210 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (799 download)
Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : United States Government Accountability Office
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by United States Government Accountability Office and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-09-23 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is GAO's annual assessment of DOD major weapon system acquisitions, an area on GAO's high-risk list. DOD and Congress have taken meaningful steps to improve the acquisition of major weapon systems, yet programs continue to experience cost and schedule overruns. Further, GAO has emphasized the need to sustain the implementation of acquisition reforms and for programs to complete developmental testing before beginning production, thereby avoiding concurrency and its associated cost and schedule growth. With the continuing budgetary pressures, DOD cannot afford to miss opportunities to address inefficiencies in these programs to free up resources for higher priority needs. The joint explanatory statement to the DOD Appropriations Act, 2009 includes a provision for GAO to annually review DOD's portfolio of weapon systems. This report includes observations on (1) the cost and schedule performance of DOD's 2015 portfolio of 79 major defense acquisition programs; (2) the knowledge attained at key junctures in the acquisition process for 43 programs that were in development or early production; and (3) key acquisition reform initiatives and program concurrency. To develop the observations in this report, GAO analyzed cost, schedule, and quantity data from DOD's December 2014 Selected Acquisition Reports. GAO also collected data through two questionnaires to program offices on technology, design, and manufacturing knowledge; the use of knowledge-based acquisition practices; and the implementation of acquisition reforms
Download or read book Impossible Certainty written by and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives."
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by :
Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.
Book Synopsis Price-based Acquisition by : Mark A. Lorell
Download or read book Price-based Acquisition written by Mark A. Lorell and published by Minnesota Historical Society. This book was released on 2005 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents findings from a research study conducted by RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the RAND Corporation, to examine the effects of using price-based acquisition (PBA) approaches for the development and production of major Air Force weapon systems, subsystems, and other military-unique articles. Typically in these cases, the cost-based acquisition (CBA) approach is used-i.e., the price to develop and produce such an article is based on cost data that the government requires the contractor to provide. Critics of this traditional, CBA method see it as imposing heavy regulatory burdens on the government and the contractor and tending to discourage potential non-defense contractors from competing for government contracts, thus reducing competition and quality and increasing cost.
