A Touch Of Uncertainty

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Taming Uncertainty

Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262353148
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Taming Uncertainty by : Ralph Hertwig

Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Toeplitz Approach to Problems of the Uncertainty Principle

Author : Alexei Poltoratski
Publisher : American Mathematical Soc.
ISBN 13 : 1470420171
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Toeplitz Approach to Problems of the Uncertainty Principle by : Alexei Poltoratski

Download or read book Toeplitz Approach to Problems of the Uncertainty Principle written by Alexei Poltoratski and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2015-03-07 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Uncertainty Principle in Harmonic Analysis (UP) is a classical, yet rapidly developing, area of modern mathematics. Its first significant results and open problems date back to the work of Norbert Wiener, Andrei Kolmogorov, Mark Krein and Arne Beurling. At present, it encompasses a large part of mathematics, from Fourier analysis, frames and completeness problems for various systems of functions to spectral problems for differential operators and canonical systems. These notes are devoted to the so-called Toeplitz approach to UP which recently brought solutions to some of the long-standing problems posed by the classics. After a short overview of the general area of UP the discussion turns to the outline of the new approach and its results. Among those are solutions to Beurling's Gap Problem in Fourier analysis, the Type Problem on completeness of exponential systems, a problem by Pólya and Levinson on sampling sets for entire functions, Bernstein's problem on uniform polynomial approximation, problems on asymptotics of Fourier integrals and a Toeplitz version of the Beurling-Malliavin theory. One of the main goals of the book is to present new directions for future research opened by the new approach to the experts and young analysts. A co-publication of the AMS and CBMS.

The Age of Uncertainty

Author : TOBIAS. HURTER
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781914484421
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (844 download)

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Book Synopsis The Age of Uncertainty by : TOBIAS. HURTER

Download or read book The Age of Uncertainty written by TOBIAS. HURTER and published by . This book was released on 2022-09-08 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The epic, page-turning history of how a group of physicists toppled the Newtonian universe in the early decades of the twentieth century. Marie Curie, Max Planck, Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, Ernst Schrödinger, and Albert Einstein didn't only revolutionise physics; they redefined our world and the reality we live in. In The Age of Uncertainty, Tobias Hürter brings to life the golden age of physics and its dazzling, flawed, and unforgettable heroes and heroines. The work of the twentieth century's most important physicists produced scientific breakthroughs that led to an entirely new view of physics -- and a view of the universe that is still not fully understood today, even as evidence for its accuracy is all around us. The men and women who made these discoveries were intellectual adventurers, renegades, dandies, and nerds, some bound together by deep friendship; others, by bitter enmity. But the age of relativity theory and quantum mechanics was also the age of wars and revolutions. The discovery of radioactivity transformed science, but also led to the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Throughout The Age of Uncertainty, Hürter reminds us about the entanglement of science and world events, for we cannot observe the world without changing it.

The Principles of Uncertainty

Author : Maira Kalman
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143116460
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis The Principles of Uncertainty by : Maira Kalman

Download or read book The Principles of Uncertainty written by Maira Kalman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2009-10-27 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Sublime . . . Kalman’s elegantly witty and at times melancholy narrative runs arm in arm with her unmistakable paintings on a serendipitous romp through the history of the world.” —Vanity Fair “Wildly original . . . there’s nothing else even remotely like it . . . This hilarious, wise, and deeply moving volume [is] the ultimate picture book for grown-ups.” —O Magazine Maira Kalman paints her highly personal worldview in this inimitable combination of image and text An irresistible invitation to experience life through a beloved artist's psyche, The Principles of Uncertainty is a compilation of Maira Kalman's New York Times columns. Part personal narrative, part documentary, part travelogue, part chapbook, and all Kalman, these brilliant, whimsical paintings, ideas, and images - which initially appear random - ultimately form an intricately interconnected worldview, an idiosyncratic inner monologue.

Make to Know

Author : Lorne M. Buchman
Publisher : Thames & Hudson
ISBN 13 : 0500776954
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Make to Know by : Lorne M. Buchman

Download or read book Make to Know written by Lorne M. Buchman and published by Thames & Hudson. This book was released on 2022-04-27 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make to Know: From Spaces of Uncertainty to Creative Discovery will change the way you think about creativity. The book upends popular notions of innate artistic and visionary genius and probes instead the event of discovery that happens through the act of making. In contrast to the classic tale of Michelangelo, who 'saw the angel in the stone', the artists and designers Buchman interviews for this book talk about knowing their work as they engage in the doing. Make to Know explores the revelatory nature of the creative journey itself. As Buchman weaves together the vivid stories of his multiple conversations, we learn about writers of all stripes as they confront creative spaces of uncertainty 'the blank page'; about visual artists and what they understand from the materials they encounter; about designers and architects and the iterative process of solving problems; and about actors and musicians facing the surprises of improvisational performance. Make to Know is a book that will, ultimately, open a path to your own making, and, in the end, will have significant implications for how you live. Make to Know presents a way of thinking that democratizes creativity and uncovers a process that leads to knowing both ones work and oneself. It is relevant to anyone interested in why creativity matters.

Uncertainty in American Politics

Author : Barry C. Burden
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521012126
Total Pages : 270 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (121 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty in American Politics by : Barry C. Burden

Download or read book Uncertainty in American Politics written by Barry C. Burden and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-07-07 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents an exciting intellectual meeting of researchers from diverse subfields to analyze how and why uncertainty affects American politics. It seeks to reconnect research traditions that have seldom spoken to one another. Though used by formal theorists, empiricists, and historians in a parallel fashion for a number of years, the notion of uncertainty has often been introduced only to explain away anomalies, provide backing for a larger argument, or justify a particular methodology. Uncertainty has rarely been considered in its own right or as a concept that might connect researchers from different subfields.

Surfing Uncertainty

Author : Andy Clark
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0190217014
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Surfing Uncertainty by : Andy Clark

Download or read book Surfing Uncertainty written by Andy Clark and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.

Seven Modes of Uncertainty

Author : C. Namwali Serpell
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674729099
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (747 download)

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Book Synopsis Seven Modes of Uncertainty by : C. Namwali Serpell

Download or read book Seven Modes of Uncertainty written by C. Namwali Serpell and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-30 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Literature is uncertain. Literature is good for us. These two ideas are often taken for granted. But what is the relationship between literature’s capacity to perplex and its ethical value? Seven Modes of Uncertainty contends that literary uncertainty is crucial to ethics because it pushes us beyond the limits of our experience.

Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World

Author : Henry N. Pollack
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139435442
Total Pages : 259 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World by : Henry N. Pollack

Download or read book Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World written by Henry N. Pollack and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-06-23 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the world warming due to the Greenhouse Effect? Can nuclear weapon arsenals be relied upon without periodic testing? Is the world running out of oil? What action should be taken against an outbreak of foot-and-mouth or BSE? Why can't scientists provide certain answers to these and many other questions? The uncertainty of science is puzzling. It arises when scientists have more than one answer to a problem or disagree amongst themselves. In this engaging book, Henry Pollack guides the reader through the maze of contradiction and uncertainty, acquainting them with the ways that uncertainty arises in science, how scientists accommodate and make use of uncertainty, and how in the face of uncertainty they reach their conclusions. Taking examples from recent science headlines and every day life, Uncertain Science ... Uncertain World enables the reader to evaluate uncertainty from their own perspectives, and find out more about how science actually works.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

The Uncertain Web

Author : Rob Larsen
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1491945885
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (919 download)

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Book Synopsis The Uncertain Web by : Rob Larsen

Download or read book The Uncertain Web written by Rob Larsen and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2014-12-10 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What’s the best way to develop for a Web gone wild? That’s easy. Simply scrap the rules you’ve relied on all these years and embrace uncertainty as a core tenet of design. In this practical book, veteran developer Rob Larsen outlines the principles out what he calls The Uncertain Web, and shows you techniques necessary to successfully make the transition. By combining web standards, progressive enhancement, an iterative approach to design and development, and a desire to question the status quo, your team can create sites and applications that will perform well in a wide range of present and future devices. This guide points the way. Topics include: Navigating thousands of browser/device/OS combinations Focusing on optimal, not absolute solutions Feature detection, Modernizr, and polyfills RWD, mobile first, and progressive enhancement UIs that work with multiple user input modes Image optimization, SVG, and server-side options The horribly complex world of web video The Web we want to see in the future

Beautiful Uncertainty

Author : Mandy Hale
Publisher : Thomas Nelson
ISBN 13 : 0718076125
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Beautiful Uncertainty by : Mandy Hale

Download or read book Beautiful Uncertainty written by Mandy Hale and published by Thomas Nelson. This book was released on 2016-02-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To seek, pursue, and fall in love with Jesus with radical abandon. Single Woman Mandy Hale shares with readers what can happen in their lives by praying this powerful prayer. She has shown women how important it is to be secure in singleness by being smart, strong, and independent. In this all new book, she will prompt readers to never settle and not miss out on the beauty that can be found in times of “waiting.” The Single Woman Says: “Whether you’re idling in stubborn sinfulness or walking in seeming never-ending singleness or living with any sort of waiting: Waiting for love, waiting for babies, waiting for marriage, waiting for a cure, or a miracle, or a sign, or for GOD . . . I hope my journey will make the wait a little easier and the uncertainty a little bit more beautiful.” Starting with relationships, but going beyond into areas like career, friendships, and life, Mandy will guide readers through what you can achieve if you look beyond your current circumstances, never settle for less than what God has for you, and find beauty in the waiting.

Acting in an Uncertain World

Author : Michel Callon
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262515962
Total Pages : 301 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Acting in an Uncertain World by : Michel Callon

Download or read book Acting in an Uncertain World written by Michel Callon and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2011-01-21 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A call for a new form of democracy in which “hybrid forums” composed of experts and laypeople address such sociotechnical controversies as hazardous waste, genetically modified organisms, and nanotechnology. Controversies over such issues as nuclear waste, genetically modified organisms, asbestos, tobacco, gene therapy, avian flu, and cell phone towers arise almost daily as rapid scientific and technological advances create uncertainty and bring about unforeseen concerns. The authors of Acting in an Uncertain World argue that political institutions must be expanded and improved to manage these controversies, to transform them into productive conversations, and to bring about “technical democracy.” They show how “hybrid forums”—in which experts, non-experts, ordinary citizens, and politicians come together—reveal the limits of traditional delegative democracies, in which decisions are made by quasi-professional politicians and techno-scientific information is the domain of specialists in laboratories. The division between professionals and laypeople, the authors claim, is simply outmoded. The authors argue that laboratory research should be complemented by everyday experimentation pursued in the real world, and they describe various modes of cooperation between the two. They explore a range of concrete examples of hybrid forums that have dealt with sociotechnical controversies including nuclear waste disposal in France, industrial waste and birth defects in Japan, a childhood leukemia cluster in Woburn, Massachusetts, and mad cow disease in the United Kingdom. The authors discuss the implications for political decision making in general and describe a “dialogic” democracy that enriches traditional representative democracy. To invent new procedures for consultation and representation, they suggest, is to contribute to an endless process that is necessary for the ongoing democratization of democracy.

Scalable Uncertainty Management

Author : Serafín Moral
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319675826
Total Pages : 450 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Scalable Uncertainty Management by : Serafín Moral

Download or read book Scalable Uncertainty Management written by Serafín Moral and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-20 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2017, which was held in Granada, Spain, in October 2017. The 24 full and 6 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 35 submissions. The book also contains 3 invited papers. Managing uncertainty and inconsistency has been extensively explored in Artificial Intelligence over a number of years. Now, with the advent of massive amounts of data and knowledge from distributed, heterogeneous, and potentially conflicting sources, there is interest in developing and applying formalisms for uncertainty and inconsistency in systems that need to better manage this data and knowledge. The International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty (SUM) aims to provide a forum for researchers who are working on uncertainty management, in different communities and with different uncertainty models, to meet and exchange ideas.

The Next Age of Uncertainty

Author : Stephen Poloz
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0735243921
Total Pages : 321 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (352 download)

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Book Synopsis The Next Age of Uncertainty by : Stephen Poloz

Download or read book The Next Age of Uncertainty written by Stephen Poloz and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-02-27 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING • SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE “The Next Age of Uncertainty combines invaluable historical insights with provocative reflections on the economy of the future—a must read.” —Thomas d’Aquino C.M., LL.D., founding CEO of the Business Council of Canada, and author of Private Power Public Purpose From the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, a far-seeing guide to the powerful economic forces that will shape the decades ahead. The economic ground is shifting beneath our feet. The world is becoming more volatile, and people are understandably worried about their financial futures. In this urgent and accessible guide to the crises and opportunities that lie ahead, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz maps out the powerful tectonic forces that are shaping our future and the ideas that will allow us to master them. These forces include an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances, too, are adding to the pressure, putting people out of work, and climate change is forcing a transition to a lower-carbon economy. It is no surprise that people are feeling uncertain. The implications of these tectonic tensions will cascade throughout every dimension of our lives—the job market, the housing market, the investment climate, as well as government and central bank policy, and the role of the corporation within society. The pandemic has added momentum to many of them. Poloz skillfully argues that past crises, from the Victorian Depression in the late 1800s to the more recent downturn in 2008, give a hint of what is in store for us in the decades ahead. Unlike the purely destructive power of earthquakes, the upheaval that is sure to come in the decades ahead will offer unexpected opportunities for renewal and growth. Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead.

Comfortable with Uncertainty

Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
ISBN 13 : 1590305558
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Comfortable with Uncertainty by : Pema Chödrön

Download or read book Comfortable with Uncertainty written by Pema Chödrön and published by Shambhala Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.

Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain

Author : Paul W. Glimcher
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262572279
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain by : Paul W. Glimcher

Download or read book Decisions, Uncertainty, and the Brain written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004-09-17 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this provocative book, Paul Glimcher argues that economic theory may provide an alternative to the classical Cartesian model of the brain and behavior. Glimcher argues that Cartesian dualism operates from the false premise that the reflex is able to describe behavior in the real world that animals inhabit. A mathematically rich cognitive theory, he claims, could solve the most difficult problems that any environment could present, eliminating the need for dualism by eliminating the need for a reflex theory. Such a mathematically rigorous description of the neural processes that connect sensation and action, he explains, will have its roots in microeconomic theory. Economic theory allows physiologists to define both the optimal course of action that an animal might select and a mathematical route by which that optimal solution can be derived. Glimcher outlines what an economics-based cognitive model might look like and how one would begin to test it empirically. Along the way, he presents a fascinating history of neuroscience. He also discusses related questions about determinism, free will, and the stochastic nature of complex behavior.