World Seaborne Trade In Real Time A Proof Of Concept For Building Ais Based Nowcasts From Scratch

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World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch

Author : Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513544101
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch by : Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro

Download or read book World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch written by Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-14 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.

Routledge Handbook of Maritime Security

Author : Ruxandra-Laura Boşilcă
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000593495
Total Pages : 367 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Routledge Handbook of Maritime Security by : Ruxandra-Laura Boşilcă

Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Maritime Security written by Ruxandra-Laura Boşilcă and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-07-25 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook offers a critical and substantial analysis of maritime security and documents the most pressing strategic, economic, socio-cultural and legal questions surrounding it. Written by leading international experts, this comprehensive volume presents a wide variety of theoretical positions on maritime security, detailing its achievements and outlining outstanding issues faced by those in the field. The book includes studies which cover the entire spectrum of activity along which maritime security is developing, including, piracy, cyber security, energy security, terrorism, narco-subs and illegal fishing. Demonstrating the transformative character and potential of the topic, the book is divided into two parts. The first part exhibits a range of perspectives and new approaches to maritime security, and the second explores emerging developments in the practice of security at sea, as well as regional studies written by local maritime security experts. Taken together, these contributions provide a compelling account of the evolving maritime security environment, casting fresh light on theoretical and empirical aspects. The book will be of much interest to practitioners and students of maritime security, naval studies, security studies, maritime history, and International Relations in general. Chapter 13 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF at http://www.taylorfrancis.com under a Creative Commons [Attribution-Non Commercial] (CC-BY-NC)] 4.0 license.

Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author : Brandon Buell
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513582496
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Brandon Buell

Download or read book Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Brandon Buell and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.

A Triple Bottom Line Analysis of Global Consumption

Author : Joy Murray
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000523187
Total Pages : 461 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis A Triple Bottom Line Analysis of Global Consumption by : Joy Murray

Download or read book A Triple Bottom Line Analysis of Global Consumption written by Joy Murray and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-05-25 with total page 461 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book adds a whole new dimension to the editors’ previous work on the social, economic, and environmental effects of global trade. For the first time it brings all three pillars of sustainability together into one coherent multiregional input–output (MRIO) framework. It shows the power of MRIO analysis to illuminate the local and global interdependencies of economic, environmental, and social systems and the benefits to be gained through analysing all three together. Change one thing and everything else changes. With chapters from around 60 researchers across 34 countries, this book illustrates the effect of natural resources and government policy settings 1990–2015 on the balancing act that was—and is—global trade. It provides a holistic systems’ view of how supply chains work, revealing how easily they can become fragmented and out of kilter. And within all the chaos of COVID-19 it shows how MRIO is the one tool that can help rebuild a post-pandemic global economy into a fairer, safer world.

Supply Chains and Port Congestion Around the World

Author : Andras Komaromi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Supply Chains and Port Congestion Around the World by : Andras Komaromi

Download or read book Supply Chains and Port Congestion Around the World written by Andras Komaromi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-25 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising prices and reports of empty shelves in major economies have drawn attention to the functioning of supply chains that normally operate smoothly in the background. Among the issues, the long delays that port congestion may have caused in delivering goods to consumers and firms have been gathering increasing attention. We shed light on these issues leveraging a unique data set on maritime transport. Two main features emerge. First, at the world level, we find that shipping times jumped upwards as soon as the COVID crisis hit, and after a marked acceleration from end-2020, delays surpassed 1.5 days on average by December 2021 – or roughly a 25 percent increase in global travel times. The estimated additional days in transit for the average shipment in December 2021 can be compared to an ad-valorem tariff of 0.9 to 3.1 percent. The midpoint of this range is approximately equal, in absolute value, to the global applied tariff reduction achieved over the 14-year period from 2003 to 2017. Second, not all congestion appears related to increased demand. Many ports, especially since mid-2021, exhibit longer wait times despite handling less cargo than pre-pandemic. Infrastructure upgrading is therefore likely a necessary, but not sufficient condition for building resilience during a crisis where other factors (such as labor shortages) may also become binding.

Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

Author : Omer Faruk Akbal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable by : Omer Faruk Akbal

Download or read book Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable written by Omer Faruk Akbal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-04 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries

Author : Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513593536
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries by : Mr. Serkan Arslanalp

Download or read book Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries written by Mr. Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries. Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains. Using satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform, we construct daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries. The algorithm significantly advances estimation techniques of previous studies, particularly by employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads, using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls, and applying country-specific information to define port boundaries. The approach can complement and help fill gaps in official data, provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity, and assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).

Regional Cooperation and Integration in Asia and the Pacific

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
ISBN 13 : 9292692488
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (926 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Cooperation and Integration in Asia and the Pacific by : Asian Development Bank

Download or read book Regional Cooperation and Integration in Asia and the Pacific written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2022-01-01 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unprecedented challenges from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have emphasized the need for Asia and the Pacific countries to work together to build back resiliently and sustainably. This report reflects on lessons learned from efforts to tackle the pandemic through regional cooperation and integration. It provides insights on how region-wide solidarity can be enhanced with the support of multilateral development banks in areas such as trade and investment, connectivity infrastructure, people’s mobility, regional public goods, and policy cooperation. The report was jointly prepared by the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank, and the World Bank Group.

Impact of Global Issues on International Trade

Author : Co?kun Özer, Ahu
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1799883167
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Impact of Global Issues on International Trade by : Co?kun Özer, Ahu

Download or read book Impact of Global Issues on International Trade written by Co?kun Özer, Ahu and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2021-06-25 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International trade is vital in today’s world; international trade can be affected by a number of issues such as terrorism, economic crises, and pandemics such as COVID-19. It is crucial to understand the impact these global issues have on international trade and what happens to trade when global issues arise. A comprehensive guide of these issues is needed to provide background and understanding about international trade and its relationship with global issues. Global issues occasionally dominate a continuing theme of the international globalized world: global crises, war, security issues, global pandemics such as COVID-19, and trade wars. Global cooperation is required to solve such problems. Economically intellectual thinking will enable the development of guiding policies in solving these global problems. In this book, the effects of global issues on international trade will be evaluated, and policy recommendations will be made for the solution of the global issues. Impact of Global Issues on International Trade is a critical reference source that uses analytic research to analyze the effects of global economic and financial crises as well as global health crises and their impact on international trade. Pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economic crisis, and trade wars are discussed, and political suggestions are made to mitigate negative impacts. Covering a wide range of topics such as financial fragility and trade fairs, it is ideal for trade specialists, policymakers, government officials, managers, executives, economists, academicians, researchers, students, and industry professionals.

Slovak Republic

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Slovak Republic by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Download or read book Slovak Republic written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-08 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Slovak Republic: Selected Issues

External Sector Report, 2020

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513549014
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis External Sector Report, 2020 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book External Sector Report, 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-08-04 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2019, external developments during the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for responding to the crisis and for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes the relationship between the structure of external assets and liabilities—the components of the international investment position—and the risk of external stress events. It also assesses how heightened global risk aversion, as during the COVID-19 crisis, amplifies these risks. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of July 15, 2020.

Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning

Author : Yang Liu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning by : Yang Liu

Download or read book Housing Boom and Headline Inflation: Insights from Machine Learning written by Yang Liu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-07-28 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation has been rising during the pandemic against supply chain disruptions and a multi-year boom in global owner-occupied house prices. We present some stylized facts pointing to house prices as a leading indicator of headline inflation in the U.S. and eight other major economies with fast-rising house prices. We then apply machine learning methods to forecast inflation in two housing components (rent and owner-occupied housing cost) of the headline inflation and draw tentative inferences about inflationary impact. Our results suggest that for most of these countries, the housing components could have a relatively large and sustained contribution to headline inflation, as inflation is just starting to reflect the higher house prices. Methodologically, for the vast majority of countries we analyze, machine-learning models outperform the VAR model, suggesting some potential value for incorporating such models into inflation forecasting.

Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?

Author : Oya Celasun
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next? by : Oya Celasun

Download or read book Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next? written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs—such as autos—are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched.

2024 Staff Guidance Note On The IMF’s Engagement With Small Developing States

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis 2024 Staff Guidance Note On The IMF’s Engagement With Small Developing States by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book 2024 Staff Guidance Note On The IMF’s Engagement With Small Developing States written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07-25 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guidance note provides operational guidance on the Fund’s engagement with small developing states (SDS). It highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing SDS, notably in a more shock-prone world. Building on advice that applies to the full membership, the note explains how the characteristics of SDS shape Fund surveillance, financial support and program design, capacity development (CD), and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in December 2017.

Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic

Author : Luigi Paganetto
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031103025
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic by : Luigi Paganetto

Download or read book Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic written by Luigi Paganetto and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-05 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the recovery and new normal in a post-Covid scenario, drawing important lessons from the pandemic and proposing new ideas for sustainable development, endogenous dynamism, and inclusive growth. The book presents different ideas and perspectives about the present and the future, reflecting on four main fields of our economic reality: macroeconomics, governments, technology, and society. It discusses important topics for future economic scenarios, beginning with an estimation of the economic consequences of the absence of an equitable distribution of vaccines. Further topics discussed include the government’s debts sustainability, the probability of an inflation/deflation or of a stagflation scenario, as well as the impact of US and European economic policies on economic growth. The book further investigates the economic costs of the pandemic, which have fallen most heavily on those least able to bear them. It examines governments subsidies, which supported people and firms through wage subsidies, unemployment benefits, and other fiscal measures, and discusses the question of whether more investment in health care, education, and other public services will still be needed. In a time of immense change and global challenges, this book is a must-read for scholars, researchers, and students of economics, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of economic growth, energy, environment, migration, development, digital transformation, and demography.

We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain

Author : Alan Feng
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513564587
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain by : Alan Feng

Download or read book We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain written by Alan Feng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-01-22 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are assets in a landlocked country subject to sea-level rise risk? In this paper, we study the cross-border spillovers of physical climate risks through international trade and supply chain linkages. As we base our findings on historical data between 1970 and 2018, we observe that globalization increased the similarity of countries’ global climate risk exposures. Exposures to foreign climatic disasters in major trade partner countries (both upstream and downstream) lower the home-country stock market valuation for the aggregate market and for the tradable sectors. We also find that exposures to foreign long-term climate change risks reduce the asset price valuations of the tradable sectors at home. Findings in this paper suggest that climate adaptation efforts in a country can have positive externalities on other countries’ macrofinancial performance and stability through international trade.

World Economic Outlook, October 2023

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2023 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2023 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-10 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.