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What Drives Firm Level Consensus Growth Forecasts Cash Flow News Or Expected Return News
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Book Synopsis What Drives Firm-level Consensus Growth Forecasts? Cash Flow News Or Expected Return News? by : Giao X. Nguyen
Download or read book What Drives Firm-level Consensus Growth Forecasts? Cash Flow News Or Expected Return News? written by Giao X. Nguyen and published by ProQuest. This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent findings in the finance literature document that analysts adjust their growth forecasts in response to major news, proxied by large changes in company stock price. However, Campbell and Shiller (1988) argue that stock prices, themselves, carry two sets of information: news about changes in cash-flow expectation (i.e. cash flow news) and changes in discount rate (i.e. expected return news). The former one directly relates to changes in expectation about the fundamentals of the company while the latter one to the changes in market expectation. Hence, are analysts more concerned about expectation of the permanent movement in the stock price (cash flow news) or the temporary movement in the stock price (expected return news)? In this study, I use a firm-level vector autoregressive approach to examine the relative impact of cash flow news and expected return news on unexpected changes in analysts next fiscal year growth forecasts. My findings indicate that analysts do raise their forecasts on positive cash flow news. However, the magnitude of the response to cash flow news is significantly lower than the magnitude of the response to expected return news. This suggests that while analysts do react to changes in firm fundamentals, they respond more strongly to changes in future expected return.
Book Synopsis What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns? by : Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Download or read book What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns? written by Tuomo Vuolteenaho and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I use a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) model to decompose a typical firm's stock return into two components: changes in cash-flow expectations (i.e., cash-flow news) and changes in discount rates (i.e., expected-return news). The VAR model yields three main results. First, firm-level stock returns are mainly driven by cash-flow news. For a typical stock, the variance of cash-flow news is more than twice that of expected-return news. Second, expected-return news series are highly correlated across firms, while cash-flow news can largely be diversified away in aggregate portfolios. Third, shocks to expected returns and cash flows are, perhaps surprisingly, positively correlated for a typical small stock. This positive correlation is inconsistent with a simple overreaction story suggesting that small-stock investors overreact to positive cash-flow news and thereby drive expected returns down.
Book Synopsis Explaining Returns with Cash-flow Proxies by : Peter Hecht
Download or read book Explaining Returns with Cash-flow Proxies written by Peter Hecht and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock returns are correlated with contemporaneous earnings growth, dividend growth, future real activity, and other cash-flow proxies. The correlation between cash-flow proxies and stock returns may arise from association of cash-flow proxies with one-period expected returns, cash-flow news, and/or expected-return news. We use Campbell's (1991) return decomposition to measure the relative importance of these three effects in regressions of returns on cash-flow proxies. In some of the popular specifications, variables that are motivated as proxies for cash-flow news also track a nontrivial proportion of one-period expected returns and expected-return news. We use Campbell's (1991) return decomposition to measure the relative importance of these three effects in regressions of returns on cash-flow news also track a nontrivial proportion of one-period expected returns and expected-return news. As a result, the R2 from a regression of returns on cash-flow proxies may overstate or understate that importance of cash-flow news as a source of return variance.
Book Synopsis Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions by : Randolph B. Cohen
Download or read book Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions written by Randolph B. Cohen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A large body of literature suggests that firm-level stock prices 'underreact' to news about future cash flows, i.e., shocks to a firm's expected cash flows are positively correlated with shocks to expected returns on its stock. We estimate a vector autoregession to examine the joint behavior of returns, cash-flow news, and trading between individuals and institutions. Our main finding is that institutions buy shares from individuals in response to good cash-flow news, thus exploiting the underreaction phenomenon. Institutions are not simply following price momentum strategies: When price goes up in the absence of positive cash-flow news, institutions sell shares to individuals. Although institutions are trading in the 'right' direction, institutions as a group outperform individuals by only 1.44 percent per annum before transaction and other costs, because they are extremely conservative in deviating from the value-weight market index.
Book Synopsis Cash Flow and Discount Rate News Estimation by : Natalya V. Khimich
Download or read book Cash Flow and Discount Rate News Estimation written by Natalya V. Khimich and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents that the VAR method for estimating the Discount Rate and Cash Flow News components of stock returns at the firm level produces results that are highly sensitive to research design choices. To alleviate these concerns, an alternative method of the news estimation is proposed. This method is based on Campbell and Shiller's (1988) return decomposition, but directly computes the Cash Flow News as the sum of the revisions in analysts' forecasts without relying on the VAR system as a modeling mechanism for market expectations (RAF method). Moreover, this method does not require estimation of the implied cost of capital as proposed by Chen and Zhao (2010). Empirical results provide evidence that the RAF method outperforms both VAR and Chen and Zhao's (2010) methods. Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that the RAF method more accurately captures Cash Flow and Discount Rate news.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data by : Peter Easton
Download or read book Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data written by Peter Easton and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2009 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accounting-based valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital. The practical appeal of accounting-based valuation models is that they focus on the two variables that are commonly at the heart of valuations carried out by equity analysts -- forecasts of earnings and forecasts of earnings growth. The question at the core of this monograph is -- How can these forecasts be used to obtain an estimate of the cost of capital? The author examines the empirical validity of the estimates based on these forecasts and explores ways to improve these estimates. In addition, this monograph details a method for isolating the effect of any factor of interest (such as cross-listing, fraud, disclosure quality, taxes, analyst following, accounting standards, etc.) on the cost of capital. If you are interested in understanding the academic literature on accounting-based estimates of expected rate of return this monograph is for you. Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data provides a foundation for a deeper comprehension of this literature and will give a jump start to those who have an interest in these topics. The key ideas are introduced via examples based on actual forecasts, accounting information, and market prices for listed firms, and the numerical examples are based on sound algebraic relations.
Book Synopsis Valuation Approaches and Metrics by : Aswath Damodaran
Download or read book Valuation Approaches and Metrics written by Aswath Damodaran and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.
Book Synopsis Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation by : Stephen H. Penman
Download or read book Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation written by Stephen H. Penman and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation is at the heart of investing. A considerable part of the information for valuation is in the financial statements.Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, 5 e by Stephen Penman shows students how to extract information from financial statements and use that data to value firms. The 5th edition shows how to handle the accounting in financial statements and use the financial statements as a lens to view a business and assess the value it generates.
Book Synopsis Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery by : Mr.Ivo Krznar
Download or read book Investment in Brazil: From Crisis to Recovery written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Book Synopsis Cost of Capital in Litigation by : Shannon P. Pratt
Download or read book Cost of Capital in Litigation written by Shannon P. Pratt and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-26 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost of Capital in Litigation addresses cost of capital issues in litigation and discusses major decisions, highlighting how to avoid errors that have often been made by experts. The book helps the attorney and valuation expert understand the decisions within the context of the theory of cost of capital and includes a chapter on cross-examining experts on cost of capital issues. Throughout, there are citation to relevant material and cross-reference to Cost of Capital: Applications and Examples, Fourth Edition.
Book Synopsis Dissertation Abstracts International by :
Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Asset Prices and Monetary Policy by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Book Synopsis The Econometrics of Financial Markets by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book The Econometrics of Financial Markets written by John Y. Campbell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-06-28 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.
Book Synopsis The Investment, Financing, and Valuation of the Corporation. -- by : Myron J Gordon
Download or read book The Investment, Financing, and Valuation of the Corporation. -- written by Myron J Gordon and published by Hassell Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-09 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Book Synopsis Applied Corporate Finance by : Aswath Damodaran
Download or read book Applied Corporate Finance written by Aswath Damodaran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-10-27 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aswath Damodaran, distinguished author, Professor of Finance, and David Margolis, Teaching Fellow at the NYU Stern School of Business, has delivered the newest edition of Applied Corporate Finance. This readable text provides the practical advice students and practitioners need rather than a sole concentration on debate theory, assumptions, or models. Like no other text of its kind, Applied Corporate Finance, 4th Edition applies corporate finance to real companies. It now contains six real-world core companies to study and follow. Business decisions are classified for students into three groups: investment, financing, and dividend decisions.
Book Synopsis How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market by : Nicholas Mangee
Download or read book How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market written by Nicholas Mangee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-14 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.
