What Are The Trends In Armed Conflicts And What Do They Mean For Us Defense Policy

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What are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and what Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?

Author : Thomas S. Szayna
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis What are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and what Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy? by : Thomas S. Szayna

Download or read book What are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and what Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy? written by Thomas S. Szayna and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "From a decades-long perspective, the incidence of armed conflict has decreased. Interstate war (that is, war between states) has become a rare event. Similarly, intrastate conflict (that is, civil wars and related political violence) had declined steadily for two decades before an uptick in conflict sparked by the wars in Syria and Ukraine in 2014. Many factors have contributed to the long-term decline in conflict and most of those factors remain in place. Of the alternative future scenarios we examined, only a few produced large spikes in armed conflict. But the defense policy implications of these findings are not straightforward, since conflict trends do not follow straight lines and the U.S. military prepares to defend the United States in periods of crisis, not just for the 'average' level of threat or in response to 'average' incidence of conflict. There are also substantial regional differences in incidence of armed conflict, and global trends do not necessarily reflect those trends. Moreover, even if armed conflict continues to decline, this fact does not necessarily indicate lower demand for U.S. military forces. In fact, even as armed conflict declined in the post-Cold War era, the frequency of deployments of U.S. land forces for military interventions rose substantially. Finally, the U.S. military preponderance may be a part of the explanation for the decline in armed conflict in the first place. The deterrent effect of the U.S. military and its forward posture may contribute to the further global decline of deadly armed conflict"--Publisher's web site.

What are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and what Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?

Author : Thomas S. Szayna
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780833098467
Total Pages : 11 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (984 download)

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Book Synopsis What are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and what Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy? by : Thomas S. Szayna

Download or read book What are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and what Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy? written by Thomas S. Szayna and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From a decades-long perspective, the incidence of armed conflict has decreased. Interstate war (that is, war between states) has become a rare event. Similarly, intrastate conflict (that is, civil wars and related political violence) had declined steadily for two decades before an uptick in conflict sparked by the wars in Syria and Ukraine in 2014. Many factors have contributed to the long-term decline in conflict and most of those factors remain in place. Of the alternative future scenarios we examined, only a few produced large spikes in armed conflict. But the defense policy implications of these findings are not straightforward, since conflict trends do not follow straight lines and the U.S. military prepares to defend the United States in periods of crisis, not just for the “average” level of threat or in response to “average” incidence of conflict. There are also substantial regional differences in incidence of armed conflict, and global trends do not necessarily reflect those trends. Moreover, even if armed conflict continues to decline, this fact does not necessarily indicate lower demand for U.S. military forces. In fact, even as armed conflict declined in the post–Cold War era, the frequency of deployments of U.S. land forces for military interventions rose substantially. Finally, the U.S. military preponderance may be a part of the explanation for the decline in armed conflict in the first place. The deterrent effect of the U.S. military and its forward posture may contribute to the further global decline of deadly armed conflict.

Global Trends 2040

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Armed Conflict in the 21st Century

Author : Steven Metz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 140 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Armed Conflict in the 21st Century by : Steven Metz

Download or read book Armed Conflict in the 21st Century written by Steven Metz and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A More Peaceful World?

Author : Stephen Watts
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780833095534
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (955 download)

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Book Synopsis A More Peaceful World? by : Stephen Watts

Download or read book A More Peaceful World? written by Stephen Watts and published by . This book was released on 2017-11-02 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

Ethical Dilemmas in the Global Defense Industry

Author : Daniel Schoeni
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190675810
Total Pages : 537 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Ethical Dilemmas in the Global Defense Industry by : Daniel Schoeni

Download or read book Ethical Dilemmas in the Global Defense Industry written by Daniel Schoeni and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-03-10 with total page 537 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The defense industry develops, produces, and sells weapons that cause great harm. It operates at the intersection of the public and private sectors, with increased reliance on technology companies. Although such firms exist primarily to serve their host states, they routinely interact with foreign legal systems and diverse cultures. This context creates unique ethical challenges. That being the case, is the defense industry ethically defensible? How should it be regulated? How should it respond to worrisome technological developments such as autonomous weapons systems? How should business be conducted in countries where bribery is the norm? To what extent can this industry's intrinsic ethical problems be overcome? This book addresses such questions, bringing together the diverse perspectives of scholars and practitioners from academia, government service, the military, and the private sector. It aims to inform a discussion about the moral and legal challenges facing the global defense industry and to introduce solutions that are innovative, effective, and practical.

Armed Conflict

Author : Brian Steed
Publisher : Presidio Press
ISBN 13 : 0307513246
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Armed Conflict by : Brian Steed

Download or read book Armed Conflict written by Brian Steed and published by Presidio Press. This book was released on 2009-03-25 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What challenges will America face in armed conflicts of the future and how will we prepare for them? National security depends upon the ability of the military to “predict” the future nature of war. Despite the difficulty in making such predictions, one must remember: nation states and other countries will continue to use armed conflict as a means to further their aims, and these aims will, at times, run contrary to American interests. As a result, the United States will continue to be confronted with armed conflict in the days and years ahead. A military theorist and experienced armor officer, Brian Steed provides insights into the future of armed conflict by focusing on what has occurred in the past–not because the past repeats itself, but because it reveals timeless principles of warfare. Five battles, one each in Korea, Vietnam, the Falklands, the Persian Gulf, and Somalia are analyzed historically, geographically, and strategically. Steed’s analysis of these engagements clearly demonstrates that the key to victory on the battlefields of the future is the small unit. In refreshing layman’s prose, the author focuses on why the events occurred as they did, and explores the significance of each battle in terms of its political and military ramifications. He concludes with lessons learned that will greatly benefit future American ground combat commanders. Armed Conflict informs the reader about the historical trends of combat operations and the realities of war–today and into the future. It will also serve to guide a new generation of military and civilian leaders as they prepare to face the inevitable conflicts in the new century.

The Military In New Times

Author : James Burk
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000303551
Total Pages : 174 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis The Military In New Times by : James Burk

Download or read book The Military In New Times written by James Burk and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-06-26 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What role will armed forces play in a world that is turbulent yet no longer organized by the bipolar conflict of East and West? In this volume, leading experts from several disciplines assess the rapidly changing global strategic and cultural landscape, examining how it will affect the responsibilities and social standing of the modern military. There are provocative disagreements among the contributors, especially over whether we should expect and prepare for another global war. However, the contributors generally agree on several broad themes that guide their analysis. Arguing that the Cold War has masked basic trends that have been reshaping the international system for a long time, they suggest that the sovereign states' dominance of the international system is rapidly coming to an end, as multinational, ethnic, regional, and religious groups–to name a few–increasingly affect the course of global affairs. In the absence of a clear "enemy," the military faces an identity crisis. In the postmodern atmosphere of this multicentric global order, authority is fragmented, and the exercise of any one authority is subject to greater scrutiny and challenge. The military has become more accepting of a variety of values, life-styles, and attitudes toward its tasks. At the same time, support for the military's mission is difficult to win, requiring endless justification. The authors believe that the principal missions for the military in these new times are peacekeeping, peacemaking, and humanitarian assistance. They examine the prospects for successful operations in these areas, taking into account the cultural lag between world structures that favor increased multinational peacekeeping forces and individual nations that supply token resources to support such efforts. This volume provides a sophisticated and thought-provoking perspective on the future role of the military in the coming decades. It is sure to enrich the vigorous debate surrounding these issues.

Armed Forces and Conflict Resolution

Author : Guiseppe Caforio
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1848551231
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (485 download)

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Book Synopsis Armed Forces and Conflict Resolution by : Guiseppe Caforio

Download or read book Armed Forces and Conflict Resolution written by Guiseppe Caforio and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-10-15 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers the various aspects of war in the twenty-first century where asymmetric warfare has changed many rules of the game, imposing a profound transformation on the military, not only tactical, but also structural, preparatory, mental and ideological. This book also covers the delicate relations between the armed forces and societies.

Who Wins?

Author : Patricia L. Sullivan (Ph. D.)
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199878331
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Who Wins? by : Patricia L. Sullivan (Ph. D.)

Download or read book Who Wins? written by Patricia L. Sullivan (Ph. D.) and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why are states with tremendous military might so often unable to attain their objectives when they use force against weaker adversaries? Who Wins? by Patricia L. Sullivan argues that the key to understanding strategic success in war lies in the nature of the political objectives states pursue through the use of military force.

Introduction to Intelligence

Author : Jonathan M. Acuff
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1544374682
Total Pages : 441 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (443 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Intelligence by : Jonathan M. Acuff

Download or read book Introduction to Intelligence written by Jonathan M. Acuff and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2021-01-28 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Intelligence: Institutions, Operations, and Analysis offers a strategic, international, and comparative approach to covering intelligence organizations and domestic security issues. Written by multiple authors, each chapter draws on the author′s professional and scholarly expertise in the subject matter. As a core text for an introductory survey course in intelligence, this text provides readers with a comprehensive introduction to intelligence, including institutions and processes, collection, communications, and common analytic methods.

War

Author : Cameron D. Lippard
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317393473
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (173 download)

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Book Synopsis War by : Cameron D. Lippard

Download or read book War written by Cameron D. Lippard and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-13 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: War: Contemporary Perspectives on Armed Conflicts around the World presents a broad variety of interdisciplinary and social scientific perspectives on the causes, processes, cultural representations, and social consequences of the armed conflicts between and within nations and other politically organized communities. This book provides theoretical views of armed conflict and its impact on people and institutions around the world.

Armed Conflict: The Lessons of Modern Warfare

Author : Brian Steed
Publisher : Turtleback Books
ISBN 13 : 9781417724888
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (248 download)

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Book Synopsis Armed Conflict: The Lessons of Modern Warfare by : Brian Steed

Download or read book Armed Conflict: The Lessons of Modern Warfare written by Brian Steed and published by Turtleback Books. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Unintended Consequences

Author : Kenneth J. Hagan
Publisher : Reaktion Books
ISBN 13 : 1861895127
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (618 download)

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Book Synopsis Unintended Consequences by : Kenneth J. Hagan

Download or read book Unintended Consequences written by Kenneth J. Hagan and published by Reaktion Books. This book was released on 2007-04-25 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “The United States does not do nation building,” claimed Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld three years ago. Yet what are we to make of the American military bases in Korea? Why do American warships patrol the Somali coastline? And perhaps most significantly, why are fourteen “enduring bases” being built in Iraq? In every major foreign war fought by United States in the last century, the repercussions of the American presence have been felt long after the last Marine has left. Kenneth J. Hagan and Ian J. Bickerton argue here that, despite adamant protests from the military and government alike, nation building and occupation are indeed hallmarks—and unintended consequences—of American warmaking. In this timely, groundbreaking study, the authors examine ten major wars fought by the United States, from the Revolutionary War to the ongoing Iraq War, and analyze the conflicts’ unintended consequences. These unexpected outcomes, Unintended Consequences persuasively demonstrates, stemmed from ill-informed decisions made at critical junctures and the surprisingly similar crises that emerged at the end of formal fighting. As a result, war did not end with treaties or withdrawn troops. Instead, time after time, the United States became inextricably involved in the issues of the defeated country, committing itself to the chaotic aftermath that often completely subverted the intended purposes of war. Stunningly, Unintended Consequences contends that the vast majority of wars launched by the United States were unnecessary, avoidable, and catastrophically unpredictable. In a stark challenge to accepted scholarship, the authors show that the wars’ unintended consequences far outweighed the initial calculated goals, and thus forced cataclysmic shifts in American domestic and foreign policy. A must-read for anyone concerned with the past, present, or future of American defense, Unintended Consequences offers a provocative perspective on the current predicament in Iraq and the conflicts sure to loom ahead of us.

Armed Conflict in the 21st Century: The Information Revolution and Post-Modern Warfare

Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1428911596
Total Pages : 129 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (289 download)

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Book Synopsis Armed Conflict in the 21st Century: The Information Revolution and Post-Modern Warfare by :

Download or read book Armed Conflict in the 21st Century: The Information Revolution and Post-Modern Warfare written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Lifting the Fog of Peace

Author : Janine Davidson
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472034820
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Lifting the Fog of Peace by : Janine Davidson

Download or read book Lifting the Fog of Peace written by Janine Davidson and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2011-08-29 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How military organizations trained for conventional war adapt—or fail to adapt—to nontraditional missions

The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions

Author : Jennifer Kavanagh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780833097767
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (977 download)

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Book Synopsis The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions by : Jennifer Kavanagh

Download or read book The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions written by Jennifer Kavanagh and published by . This book was released on 2018-02-09 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In recent years, the frequency of U.S. military interventions in overseas areas, including not only those involving conventional war but also peacekeeping and humanitarian relief operations, has risen. These interventions have involved thousands of troops, cost billions of dollars, and placed significant demands on Army leadership, planning, and resources. The Army would benefit from an enhanced ability to anticipate the types and conditions of overseas military interventions it is most likely to be called upon to undertake in the future. This report constructs three different sets of models using historical data (one for each of three intervention types: interventions into armed conflict, stability operations in conflict and postconflict environments, and deterrent interventions). It examines the key factors influencing the incidence of military interventions and intervention size. Finally, the analysis provides the Army with signposts and metrics that can be used to identify countries, conflicts, and crises that are at highest risk for a U.S. intervention. Key signposts include the relationship between the target of the intervention and the United States, past U.S. military involvement in that country, and the severity of the crisis or threat to which the United States is responding. These signposts would allow the Army to better anticipate and plan for future interventions and could improve both near- and medium-term force-planning decisions"--Publisher's description.