Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability by : Jack A. Goldstone

Download or read book Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability written by Jack A. Goldstone and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (138 download)

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Book Synopsis Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability by : Jack A. Goldstone

Download or read book Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability written by Jack A. Goldstone and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Cult of the Irrelevant

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 069122899X
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Cult of the Irrelevant by : Michael Desch

Download or read book Cult of the Irrelevant written by Michael Desch and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-09-28 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How professionalization and scholarly “rigor” made social scientists increasingly irrelevant to US national security policy To mobilize America’s intellectual resources to meet the security challenges of the post–9/11 world, US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates observed that “we must again embrace eggheads and ideas.” But the gap between national security policymakers and international relations scholars has become a chasm. In Cult of the Irrelevant, Michael Desch traces the history of the relationship between the Beltway and the Ivory Tower from World War I to the present day. Recounting key Golden Age academic strategists such as Thomas Schelling and Walt Rostow, Desch’s narrative shows that social science research became most oriented toward practical problem-solving during times of war and that scholars returned to less relevant work during peacetime. Social science disciplines like political science rewarded work that was methodologically sophisticated over scholarship that engaged with the messy realities of national security policy, and academic culture increasingly turned away from the job of solving real-world problems. In the name of scientific objectivity, academics today frequently engage only in basic research that they hope will somehow trickle down to policymakers. Drawing on the lessons of this history as well as a unique survey of current and former national security policymakers, Desch offers concrete recommendations for scholars who want to shape government work. The result is a rich intellectual history and an essential wake-up call to a field that has lost its way.

Studies in Intelligence: Vol. 56, No. 1

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Publisher : Government Printing Office
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Studies in Intelligence: Vol. 56, No. 1 by :

Download or read book Studies in Intelligence: Vol. 56, No. 1 written by and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Politics and Science of Prevision

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000088367
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Politics and Science of Prevision by : Andreas Wenger

Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-28 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Studies in Intelligence

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 588 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (891 download)

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Book Synopsis Studies in Intelligence by :

Download or read book Studies in Intelligence written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Warning about War

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110848607X
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Warning about War by : Christoph O. Meyer

Download or read book Warning about War written by Christoph O. Meyer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how and when public and non-public warnings about future conflicts affect decision-making in Western states and international organisations.

Non-Traditional Security in Asia

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Publisher : Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
ISBN 13 : 9814414417
Total Pages : 367 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Non-Traditional Security in Asia by : Mely Caballero-Anthony

Download or read book Non-Traditional Security in Asia written by Mely Caballero-Anthony and published by Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. This book was released on 2013 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Non-Traditional Security in Asia examines the critical security challenges faced by states and societies in Asia including health, food, water, natural disasters, internal conflict, forced migration, energy, transnational crime, and cyber security. Through the development of a comprehensive analytical framework that establishes the key ingredients to policy evaluation, the editors draw on a wide variety of experts to collaborate in investigating these crucial issues. This inclusive framework ensures that all voices are heard including those oftentimes under-represented and marginalized in society to ensure that academic and policy debates are well informed about the often complex and nuanced nature of these non-traditional security challenges. Through an investigation into these specific non-traditional security threats, Non-Traditional Security in Asia documents and evaluates many of the most pressing challenges faced by Asia today. The authors analyse the ways in which particular issues are addressed by the many stakeholders involved in the policy-making process, both within governments and across societies. The question of how these challenges are addressed across and between the different levels of global governance highlights the strengths and weakness that are directly attributable to policy successes and failures. It is through this layered and comprehensive approach, together with an evaluation of the role of stakeholders, which binds together the chapter contributions to this collection. The book undertakes an issue-specific chapter study of how Asian states and societies address these non-traditional security concerns from environmental adaptation and mitigation measures to conflict resolution. For each issue area, it identifies and explains the concerns of various policy communities, identifying the motivations behind some of the key decisions made to affect change or stabilize the status quo. Essentially it questions not only what a security issue is but also for whom the issue is important and the interaction this has with policy outcomes. With a focus on regional and global institutions as well as national and local ones, this collection illustrates the variety of stakeholders involved in non-traditional security concerns, and reflects on their relative importance in the decision-making process. Through a systematic evaluation of these non-traditional security issues by employing a comprehensive analytical framework, critical appreciation of the dynamics of the policy-making process surrounding issues of crucial national, regional and international significance in Asia are made. As a result of sharing these insights, the contributors provide the tools as well as a selection of issue-specific stakeholders to illuminate the key but complex characteristics of non-traditional security in Asia.

Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

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Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1506316875
Total Pages : 409 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence by : Katherine Hibbs Pherson

Download or read book Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence written by Katherine Hibbs Pherson and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Second Edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence provides a basic introduction to the critical thinking skills employed within the intelligence community. This easy-to-use handbook is framed around twenty key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis. Drawing upon their decades of teaching and analytic experience, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated the book with useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques used to arrive at the best possible analytical product.

Simple Solutions to Complex Catastrophes

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031487478
Total Pages : 443 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (314 download)

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Book Synopsis Simple Solutions to Complex Catastrophes by : John Braithwaite

Download or read book Simple Solutions to Complex Catastrophes written by John Braithwaite and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Zusammenfassung: This open access book sets out simple solutions to managing complex catastrophes. It focusses on four kinds of crises - climate change, crime-war cascades, epidemics and financial crises. These catastrophes are conceived as complex and prone to cascade effects. This book is optimistic in explaining that there are identifiable simple institutions that international society can strengthen and some simple principles that can help humankind to control the expanding gamut of complex catastrophes that confront the planet including simple, stable institutions and regulatory bodies. It draws on a wide range of current and past crises and challenges, from the Cold War to COVID-19, and from Weapons of Mass Destruction to restorative diplomacy with States like China, to provide an urgent and timely path forward. It speaks to those interested in criminology, public policy and international relations, political science, sociology, public health and economics. John Braithwaite is Emeritus Distinguished Professor of the Australian National University and an interdisciplinary scholar of peacebuilding, war crime, business crime, criminological theory, and regulation and governance. He founded and was the first Director of the School of Regulation and Global Governance (RegNet) at ANU. Many of his previous works can be downloaded from johnbraithwaite.com

The Ideology of Failed States

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1316820238
Total Pages : 327 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (168 download)

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Book Synopsis The Ideology of Failed States by : Susan L. Woodward

Download or read book The Ideology of Failed States written by Susan L. Woodward and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-03 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What do we mean when we use the term 'failed states'? This book presents the origins of the term, how it shaped the conceptual framework for international development and security in the post-Cold War era, and why. The book also questions how specific international interventions on both aid and security fronts - greatly varied by actor - based on these outsiders' perceptions of state failure create conditions that fit their characterizations of failed states. Susan L. Woodward offers details of international interventions in peacebuilding, statebuilding, development assistance, and armed conflict by all these specific actors. The book analyzes the failure to re-order the international system after 1991 that the conceptual debate in the early 1990s sought - to the serious detriment of the countries labelled failed or fragile and the concept's packaging of the entire 'third world', despite its growing diversity since the mid-1980s, as one.

Anomie and Violence

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Publisher : ANU E Press
ISBN 13 : 1921666234
Total Pages : 518 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (216 download)

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Book Synopsis Anomie and Violence by : John Braithwaite

Download or read book Anomie and Violence written by John Braithwaite and published by ANU E Press. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Indonesia suffered an explosion of religious violence, ethnic violence, separatist violence, terrorism, and violence by criminal gangs, the security forces and militias in the late 1990s and early 2000s. By 2002 Indonesia had the worst terrorism problem of any nation. All these forms of violence have now fallen dramatically. How was this accomplished? What drove the rise and the fall of violence? Anomie theory is deployed to explain these developments. Sudden institutional change at the time of the Asian financial crisis and the fall of President Suharto meant the rules of the game were up for grabs. Valerie Braithwaite's motivational postures theory is used to explain the gaming of the rules and the disengagement from authority that occurred in that era. Ultimately resistance to Suharto laid a foundation for commitment to a revised, more democratic, institutional order. The peacebuilding that occurred was not based on the high-integrity truth-seeking and reconciliation that was the normative preference of these authors. Rather it was based on non-truth, sometimes lies, and yet substantial reconciliation. This poses a challenge to restorative justice theories of peacebuilding.

Global Politics and the Responsibility to Protect

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136868631
Total Pages : 524 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (368 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Politics and the Responsibility to Protect by : Alex J. Bellamy

Download or read book Global Politics and the Responsibility to Protect written by Alex J. Bellamy and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-12-14 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an in-depth introduction to, and analysis of, the issues relating to the implementation of the recent Responsibility to Protect principle in international relations The Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) has come a long way in a short space of time. It was endorsed by the General Assembly of the UN in 2005, and unanimously reaffirmed by the Security Council in 2006 (Resolution 1674) and 2009 (Resolution 1894). UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has identified the challenge of implementing RtoP as one of the cornerstones of his Secretary-Generalship. The principle has also become part of the working language of international engagement with humanitarian crises and has been debated in relation to almost every recent international crisis – including Sudan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Georgia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Darfur and Somalia. Concentrating mainly on implementation challenges including the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities, strengthening the UN’s capacity to respond, and the role of regional organizations, this book introducing readers to contemporary debates on R2P and provides the first book-length analysis of the implementation agenda. The book will be of great interest to students of the responsibility to protect, humanitarian intervention, human rights, foreign policy, security studies and IR and politics in general.

Understanding Peacekeeping

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Publisher : Polity
ISBN 13 : 0745641865
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (456 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Peacekeeping by : Alex J. Bellamy

Download or read book Understanding Peacekeeping written by Alex J. Bellamy and published by Polity. This book was released on 2010-03-29 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peace operations are now a principal tool for managing armed conflict and building world peace. The fully revised, expanded and updated second edition of Understanding Peacekeeping provides a comprehensive and up-to-date introduction to the theory, practice and politics of contemporary peace operations. Drawing on more than twenty-five historical and contemporary case studies, this book evaluates the changing characteristics of the contemporary environment in which peacekeepers operate, what role peace operations play in wider processes of global politics, the growing impact of non-state actors, and the major challenges facing today's peacekeepers. All the chapters have been revised and expanded and seven new chapters have been added. Part 1 summarizes the central concepts and issues related to peace operations. It includes a new discussion of the theories of peace operations and analysis of the emerging norm of responsibility to protect. Part 2 charts the historical development of peacekeeping from 1945 and offers a new chapter on peace operations in the twenty-first century. In part 3, separate chapters analyse seven different types of peace operations: preventive deployments; traditional peacekeeping; assisting transition; transitional administrations; wider peacekeeping; peace enforcement; and peace support operations. Part 4 looks forward and examines the central challenges facing today's peacekeepers, namely, the regionalization of peace operations, the privatization of security, civilian protection, policing and gender issues. This second edition of Understanding Peacekeeping will be essential reading for students and scholars of peace and conflict studies, security studies and international relations. Visit http://www.polity.co.uk/up2/ for more information and additional resources.

Conflict and Fragility Preventing Violence, War and State Collapse The Future of Conflict Early Warning and Response

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Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264059814
Total Pages : 137 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Conflict and Fragility Preventing Violence, War and State Collapse The Future of Conflict Early Warning and Response by : OECD

Download or read book Conflict and Fragility Preventing Violence, War and State Collapse The Future of Conflict Early Warning and Response written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2009-02-19 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on literature review and inputs from surveyed agencies, this book assesses the value and role of early warning for the prevention of violent conflict and identifies the most effective systems.

The First United Nations Mandate on Minority Issues

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Publisher : Martinus Nijhoff Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9004288775
Total Pages : 387 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis The First United Nations Mandate on Minority Issues by : Gay J. McDougall

Download or read book The First United Nations Mandate on Minority Issues written by Gay J. McDougall and published by Martinus Nijhoff Publishers. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Across the world, ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities are subjected to hate crimes, systematic discrimination and marginalization. Religious minorities have recently faced particular threat in certain regions, while in other parts of the globe identity based on race or ethnicity has been used as a basis for exclusion. In The First United Nations Mandate on Minority Issues, Gay McDougall curates a selection of reports she produced as UN Independent Expert on Minority Issues. The collection, with her introductory analysis, reveals the challenges and opportunities faced in her attempt to highlight the plight of these oppressed communities around the world and to shape an important new mechanism for the UN’s protection of their rights.

Macrocriminology and Freedom

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Publisher : ANU Press
ISBN 13 : 1760464813
Total Pages : 814 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Macrocriminology and Freedom by : John Braithwaite

Download or read book Macrocriminology and Freedom written by John Braithwaite and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2022-02-15 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can power over others be transformed to ‘power with’? It is possible to transform many institutions to build societies with less predation and more freedom. These stretch from families and institutions of gender to the United Nations. Some societies, times and places have crime rates a hundred times higher than others. Some police forces kill at a hundred times the rate of others. Some criminal corporations kill thousands more than others. Micro variables fail to explain these patterns. Prevention principles for that challenge are macrocriminological. Freedom is conceived in a republican way as non-domination. Tempering domination prevents crime; crime prevention reduces domination. Many believe a high crime rate is a price of freedom. Not Braithwaite. His principles of crime control are to build freedom, temper power, lift people from poverty and reduce all forms of domination. Freedom requires a more just normative order. It requires cascading of peace by social movements for non-violence and non-domination. Periods of war, domination and anomie cascade with long lags to elevated crime, violence, inter-generational self-violence and ecocide. Cybercrime today poses risks of anomic nuclear wars. Braithwaite’s proposals refine some of criminology’s central theories and sharpen their relevance to all varieties of freedom. They can be reduced to one sentence. Strengthen freedom to prevent crime, prevent crime to strengthen freedom. ‘A true magnum opus, Macrocriminology and Freedom is a thought provoking and generative book from one of criminology’s intellectual giants. John Braithwaite reaches far and wide across societies, time, and disciplines to advance no less than a theory of how to build a society that simultaneously reduces both domination and crime. His ambitious ideas on cascades of non-dominating collective efficacy and crime prevention, for example, and their connections to social movements and political freedom, go well beyond usual criminological discourse. Chock full of theoretical propositions and bold insights, this a book that will keep criminologists busy for years. Macrocriminology and Freedom should not just be read, but better yet, savoured.’ – Robert J. Sampson, Henry Ford II Professor of the Social Sciences, Harvard University ‘In this majestic theorisation of the relationship between crime and freedom John Braithwaite isolates the unique power of macrocriminology as a lens through which to comprehend and challenge many of the fundamental crises facing our planet. Very few scholars have the breadth and overview to succeed in a mission of this order … Braithwaite does. This extraordinary book is an object lesson for all who seek to understand and resist domination and the crimes of power that flow from it.’ – Penny Green, Professor of Law and Globalisation, Queen Mary University of London ‘For over 40 years, John Braithwaite has been a voice of wisdom, hope and humanity in criminology. This dazzling new book weaves together all the main themes of his influential work, reanimating many of the core concepts of the discipline, as well as incorporating interdisciplinary resources from south and north, east and west, to produce an elegant and ambitious explanatory and normative account of crime as freedom-threatening domination. Decentring criminal justice as the solution to crime, Braithwaite shows that, on a global scale, the aspiration to tackle crimes, ranging from interpersonal violence through corporate crimes to ecocide, lies in the development of freedom-enhancing, power-tempering institutions in the political, economic and social spheres.’ – Nicola Lacey, Professor of Law, Gender and Social Policy, London School of Economics ‘Macrocriminology and Freedom is a criminological epic, an expansive and erudite story that sweeps across history and contexts. The book is frightening in showing how cascading events can produce catastrophes from crime to environmental destruction. But in the end, its message is hopeful, identifying pathways—or “normative rivers”—for guiding freedom from domination and crime. Drawing on his distinguished career, John Braithwaite has bestowed an extraordinary gift—a book, like other masterpieces, that will yield special insights each time we take an excursion through its pages.’ – Francis T. Cullen, Distinguished Research Professor Emeritus, University of Cincinnati ‘In this engaging book John Braithwaite reinvigorates discussions about crime and its control. While advocating a macro approach, the book is punctuated not only with insights and data from smaller-scale studies conducted in a range of jurisdictions, but also with auto-biographical vignettes. The effect creates a deeply personal account of the perils of state, non-state and market violence and authoritarianism and the potential and indeed duty, of criminologists to work towards their reduction, by refocusing their efforts on explaining and tackling crime in its myriad of forms.’ – Mary Bosworth, Professor of Criminology, University of Oxford and Monash University ‘John Braithwaite has had a unique influence on criminology globally. In this encyclopaedic text he synthesises a wealth of criminological knowledge, particularly in the sphere of anomie theory, into broader debates about the nature of domination and freedom in contemporary society. He defends the relevance of criminological theory, while urging criminology to be activist rather than reactive and technocratic, counter-hegemonic rather than neutral. Not for the first time, John Braithwaite has challenged criminologists to construct theories that cut across micro and macro structures. This book will stir debate. It deserves a broad readership.’ – Harry Blagg, Professor of Criminology, University of Western Australia